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Pitching - How do we stack up

Always hard to follow along with all the moves, so I’m hoping this gives an indication of where the Cardinals pitching is at within the central division.

I’m going to use the depth charts at mlb.com as the reference. They are fairly up to date as they show Greene at SS already.

Cardinals -

SP: Wainright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Piniero, Garcia, Carpenter, McClellan

Pen: Perez, McCLellan, T. Johnson, Kinney, Thompson, Carpenter,  Motte, (Miller), Ring

Cubs -

SP: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, Marquis

Pen: Marmol, Wuertz, Hart, Wells, Fox, Cox, Gaudin, Marshall, Samardzija, Guzman, Luis Vizcaino

Brewers -

SP: Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Bush, Capuano, McClung

Pen: Riske, Villanueva, Julio, Coffey, Stettar, Dillard, DiFelice

Astros -

SP: Oswalt, Rodriguez, Backe, Hampton, Moehler

Pen: Valverde, Geary, Hawkins, Brocail, Wright, Byrdak, Sampson, Arias

Reds -

SP: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Owings, Bailey

Pen: Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Linclon, Bray, Majewski, Masset, Ramirez, Roenicke, Herrera

Pirates -

SP: Maholm, Snell, Ohlendorf, Gorzelanny, Duke, Karstens, Dumatrait

Pen: Capps, Grabow, Yates, Bautista, Burnett, Beam, Chavez, Hansen, Sanchez

I’ll have to admit that I don’t know all of the pitchers listed in the bullpen for teams other than the Cardinals.  So far what strikes me is that the Cardinals don’t have a 5th starter.  Some say that will be McClellan, but that takes quite a bite out of the bullpen. Carpenter in the pen is a red flag as well. Can you really count on Carpenter pitching at all, or will it be another year trying to force him in somewhere? Could he maybe become the closer similar to Smoltz?  If Carpenter can pitch effectively out of the pen or if he could enter the rotation, then things look much brighter for Cardinal pitching.  For some reason Trever Miller wasn’t shown, so I added him in. Maybe it is still to early to try this as a few players like Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores, might not even be offered contracts. Probably safe to say with Miller signing for 1 year that Flores is out at least.  The bullpen is looking pretty inexperienced without Franklin and Springer and Villone in there.

Looking at the Cubs, even without Peavy they have a solid rotation, not losing any starters from last year. They also still have Rich Hill lingering in the minors somewhere hoping to regain his spot. Marquis is the man on the outs, but he doesn’t make a bad 5th starter even if they don’t move him. Could also use Gaudin as the 5th starter if Hill doesn’t come through or they don’t sign another pitcher.  There are always injury concerns with Harden and even BigZ starting showing signs of wear last year. I guess maybe Marshall could even start. Bullpen looks good but obviously would look much stronger with an established closer. Losing Kerry Wood seems to put Marmol in the closer role and maybe Smardzija in as the 8th inning guy, but Marmol was so good in that role and who really knows if he can handle full time closer duties.

The Brewers sans Sheets just doesn’t look like the same rotation at all, not to mention the one that also had CC on it!  Riske is the perfect name for this guy as a possible closer and Julio has not had sustained success. I have always thought Coffey had good potential, but has to stay healthy and show what he has. Parra, Gallardo, Capuano, Bush all have good cases to make as starters, but certainly not Sheets or CC.

Get past Oswalt on Houston and again you really don’t know what you have. Wandy Rodriguez has shown flashes and Hampton looks to rebound, but doubtful he’ll ever be the same pitcher that commanded the huge contract. The pen looks very strong with Valverde closing (assuming he doesn’t melt down at some point during the season) and a number of really good set up guys. I kind of expect that Sampson winds up starting at some point.

The Reds starting pitching will go the way of Harang and Arroyo. Having to pitch half the games at home isn’t going to help their confidence.  Volquez is obviously a stud and Cueto should continue to improve. Owings should at least contribute in the hitting department but has been very inconsistent. I followed him in the minors and the reports were that he was a good pitcher but lacked a true strikeout pitch. Homer Bailey was thought to be the next stud several years ago, but has really regressed since then. The bullpen looks real solid although Cordero as closer doesn’t excite me too much. I also don’t like seeing Lincoln on the Reds since the Cards really never got anything out of him when he was here except for a brief flash that he was good.  He did have some rough stretches last year but a year of conditioning should get him back on track. Bray is a lefty that I like as well and Burton is also solid. The Reds pitching could be tough, but still several lingering questions to answer.

About all I can say about the Pirates is that I like their closer Capps. Used to think highly of some of the starters but the shine has dulled considerably on them.

From a pitching standpoint it wouldn’t take the Cardinals much to get right up there with the Cubs. Add an Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny type and a closer, maybe Fuentes or trade for Saito or Jenks possibly and thinks look pretty sweet. Add a lesser pitcher like a Wolf or resign Looper and no closer and it still isn’t terrible, but will take a lot more work from the hitting to have a winning season.  I’m still not ruling out an Izzy return either.

I’m sure I’m missing some pitchers, but just wanted to get down what I could for now and see how things were shaping up.

No arbitration for Springer, Looper, Isringhausen

Well, I must say that at least one of these decisions by GM John Mozeliak and his front office counterparts with the Cardinals was a surprise.

The Cards elected to decline to offer arbitration to any of their three “compensatory” free agents - Russ Springer, Braden Looper, and Jason Isringhausen.  They also did not offer arbitration to any of their other unrestricted free agents, which was less of a surprise.

The decision on Springer was not terribly surprising, as the likelihood of a team ponying up the cash to sign Russ *AND* a compensatory draft pick was low.  Likewise, by offering arbitration, the Cards would’ve bound themselves to Springer at a rate of no less than 80% of his 2008 $3.5m salary.  Coming off of arguably his best two seasons in MLB at age 40, it’s possible that Springer would’ve been awarded a raise from that $3.5m by an arbitrator.  Springer has indicated he would like to return with the Cardinals, so it would seem that the ball is in the court of the team.  One down.

Isringhausen?  Izzy made $8m in 2008, and there was never really a doubt that the Cardinals would decline to offer arbitration.  There appear to be at least smoke screens of interest out there, but nothing significant enough for the Cardinals to risk over $6m for another season of Izzy.  Not a lot of suspense here.  Two down.

Looper, in my mind, was the big question mark.  Having posted two very solid seasons as a back-end starting pitcher, Looper figures to land a multi-year contract, perhaps approaching $8m-$9m per season.  Looper is a Type B free agent, so the Cardinals would be due a supplemental round pick if he were signed by another team.  Looper carries a bit more interest to the Cards though, who by most fan accounts could stand to have some insurance in the starting rotation.  Looper could’ve been offered arbitration, gotten a one-year, low-risk deal and provided an excellent option for taking the ball every five days.  The Cards elected to decline arbitration.

I can see this several different ways.  With the announcement coming today that the country is ‘officially in a recession’ (wow, brilliant, right?), and so few free agent signings having been made so far, I reach a few conclusions.

1.  I think teams are going to be far more prudent and frugal with their free agent dollars than in past years.  Sure CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira will get their silly money, but beyond the big names, I think the cash will dry up.  The Cardinals don’t want to be caught holding the bag with a contract, even if only one-year, for Looper that is overpriced compared to the market they could’ve been playing in.

2.  Because of the reason above, and because the market has been so slow to date, I believe the Cards were skeptical that a team would sign Looper if it meant the Cardinals would get a pick in return.  Again referring to the issues above, if Looper had a big arbitration offer from the Cards, it could price other teams out of the market for him.

3.  Adding onto the two items above further, Looper might elect to immediately take the Cards’ offer of arbitration before the market softened any more, again sticking the Cards with an above market deal.

4.  Mozeliak may believe he can lure Looper back into the fold at a rate lower than what arbitration would’ve cost them.  While I certainly haven’t heard of any contact between Looper’s folks and Mo, it wouldn’t surprise me if they’ve been talking.

5.  If you believe Mozeliak, they just want to keep their options open, and perhaps wisely.  As slowly as the market is moving to date, there could well be a Kyle Lohse-type deal available as late as Spring Training again.  Why rush into what could be a market-high deal when patience and due diligence may allow you to reap benefits down the road?

Ok, sure.  You’re right.  I’m looking at this with rose-colored glasses.  At any rate, the Cardinals are no worse off tonight than they were this morning.  They could still use another starting pitcher from somewhere (Randy Wolf anyone?), they still need middle infielders (they did not offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez either, which is not a huge shock), and they still are messing around trying to get some left-handed relievers signed.

I’m willing to wait and watch - it’s not like anyone else is making huge moves just yet - but I am still holding out hope that Mozeliak isn’t getting much sleep these days between phone calls.

One outing does not a closer make

Fresh off of a two-inning, one hit, no runs performance yesterday afternoon, Jason Isringhausen is hopefully feeling a little better about himself.

I hope that Tony doesn’t feel the same. Sure, Izzy finally put together some pitches, even throwing most for strikes. This does not in the slightest form mean that he should be allowed back near the closer’s role. LaRussa has maintained that he will employ a closer-by-committee approach, but that committee should not in the near future (or perhaps ever again) include Isringhausen.

Yesterday’s outing for Izzy was a good sign, nothing more, nothing less. It came with the Cards already facing a 4-1 deficit, the Cardinal offense rendered inept by Dodgers rookie Clayton Kershaw. Kyle Lohse pitched admirably in taking his fourth loss of the season, and giving further rest to this bullpen by logging another seven inning start.

Isringhausen threw twenty-five pitches in his two innings of work yesterday, with and astonishing twenty of them for strikes, even striking out three. This is a huge step in the right direction. Izzy seemed more relaxed out there (no doubt aided by the “no pressure” situation, knowing he couldn’t take the loss) and more confident in his pitches.

I believe that if he really refocuses, lets go of the prospect of returning to closer this season, lets go of the 300 save plateau that, at this point, seems just out of reach - he can still be a contributor for this ‘pen. Think of him in the seventh or eighth inning, with a little less pressure than the closer role, and Ryan Franklin opposite him in the other inning. Folks have quickly forgotten how effective Franklin was in the setup role before Isringhausen went on the DL and he was thrust into the closer role. At this point, it seems safe to say that Izzy and Franklin will be with this team for the duration, so rabid haters can bag their “DFA them” routine. If Izzy can build on yesterday’s outing, I would love to see him get the ball in the seventh or eighth. Sprinkle in some Kyle McClellan and Russ Springer and those two innings could, dare I say, turn into positives for this club.

Think about it this way. The starting rotation is beginning to pick up its game - Braden Looper is going for his third straight seven inning start today in Chicago. Lohse has been routinely going seven. Joel Pineiro went seven on Wednesday, perhaps feeling the pressure of the return of the Cards’ top two starters, Chris Carpenter (who looked like he could’ve gone nine Tuesday night, if not for rain) and Adam Wainwright.

Spun the right way, I really do believe that LaRussa can make shine out of spit here. The less work the bullpen has to do in the coming weeks, the more flexibility he has. Izzy comes in and walks the first batter? No worries, yank him for Springer. Ron Villone gets a lefty in the seventh, Jaime Garcia gets one in the eighth. They could even employ a bullpen rotation of sorts (obviously there are a lot more variables than I’m caring to acknowledge here, but…) where Isringhausen gets the seventh one day, and McClellan the next. Springer gets the eighth one day, and Franklin the next.

You’ll notice I have yet to discuss the ninth. Chris Perez has got to be the man. The ninth inning should be his to lose at this point. Now, that being said, the same opinion I issued for Isringhausen earlier applies to Perez here. One outing does not a closer make, but damn was CP63 impressive on Wednesday. He’s got to continue to do it, but if that save didn’t instill confidence in LaRussa and Dave Duncan to use him in that role, the kid is up against it worse than I thought. Isringhausen and Franklin have been offered the chance to fail over and over again this season, so I would hope that the same opportunity would be extended to Perez. Sure, he’s going to struggle at some point - but let him work through it.

I’d love to see this trial by fire be Perez’s audition for the 2009 closer role. Imagine the flexibilty offered to John Mozeliak in the off-season, with arguably a lot of free agent cash to throw around, if he has his closer locked down at the league minimum before spring training even starts. I cherish the thought.

So, with all of this said - I guess you can put me squarely in the glass-half-full camp. I’m still just like any other Cards fan, I cringe when the bullpen comes in with a “less-than-one-swing-lead”. Anything less than five runs, I’m wary. Yet I think there is a real opportunity here for LaRussa to do the right thing. Sticking with Perez in the closer role seems to just set the rest of the bullpen up almost too nicely. We’ve seen what Isringhausen can do with the pressure off - give him some more two or three runs down (or preferably six or seven runs up) situations to get the kinks worked out, then install him in that almost as valuable setup role. Let Franklin throw some earlier innings no runners on to get his head straight, and then let him loose back in what should’ve been his role all season.

This just might work out yet, kids…

Going to bed early

You may have noticed by the lack of my wit and knowledge around here that I have already, by the middle of the week, had one of the longest weeks of the year to date.  Work is keeping me hectic and on-the-go.  Last night, that was a blessing in disguise.

Having already listened to the first four innings on my XM radio in the car (love that thing, by the way), I proceeded to sit through both rain delays on my MLB.tv subscription once I got home.  I saw Adam Kennedy’s RBI single in the bottom of the fifth.  I saw Rick Ankiel get hit with the bases loaded (good thing too, I don’t think he had a chance to hit Joe Beimel in that at-bat).  Finally, I saw Albert Pujols redeem himself with a two-run home run, after leaving Skip Schumaker hung out to dry stealing third when he struck out flailing at a couple of bad pitches.  I know, I know - it was pretty clear the hit-and-run was on for that last pitch, so he has to swing - so maybe that one is on Tony.  Let the guy take a walk, LaRussa.

After the Pujols home run, facing an early morning flight, I decided it was time to hit the sack.  After all, the Cardinals appeared to be cruising.  Surely they would add another run or two, and make it out of reach even for this bullpen, right?

Wrong.

I awoke to find the Cardinals had won after all, but it took them eleven innings.  Thank goodness for your National League Player of the Week, Ryan Ludwick.  Luddy has really carried this team lately, and it manifested itself in a truly MVP-worthy way last night.

Unfortunately, again, it shouldn’t have been necessary.  Ron Villone gave up a shot to otherwise useless at the plate Andruw Jones.  It would be the only batter he faced, to LaRussa’s credit.  Jason Isringhausen quickly made the decision a moot point, as he proceeded to continue his dog and pony show this season.  It is truly a shame that baseball’s statistical system puts the blown save last night on Ryan Franklin, because while he should shoulder just as much of the blame as anyone in that bullpen, last night’s implosion was the Izzy Show.

Since I can barely stomach to continue on about the bullpen, let’s focus on some good developments in last night’s game:

Ludwick (or Studwick, depending on your preference) has broken out of his mid-season lull in a big way, earning NL Player of the Week honors for last week, and not letting off the gas last night.

Chris Carpenter really deserved better, having pitched an excellent game up to the first rain delay.  I think that LaRussa and Duncan made the correct move in pulling him after the delay.  There was no need to run him back out there, when he is still working on getting his stamina back, and risk injury.  Brad Thompson once again performed quite well taking the ball early in the game, pitching a scoreless sixth.  You can be virtually certain that Thompson would have gone another inning or two, had the Cardinals not threatened in the bottom of the inning, forcing TLR to pinch-hit for Thompson.

Kyle McClellan had another good outing - I struggle with KMac on a daily basis.  He is seemingly one of the Cards’ best options to get a shot at the closer’s role, but he does the middle relief job so well.  Which is more important at this stage?

I really think it’s time for either KMac or Chris Perez to get their shot.  Izzy has blown his two chances (just like all the saves), Franklin was no better, and I don’t think Russ Springer has the gun anymore to go even a full inning night after night.

Why not let Perez learn on the job?  I know it’s not typical for a rookie to be thrust into that role without easing him into the majors first, but Perez has been a closer all his life.  Let him adjust and be ready to be the man next year.  It’s not typical for MLB teams to blow thirty saves in a season either, but the Cards seem to have no problem heading in that direction…

Let’s play Tony LaRussa

Note:  Preprogrammed thread written prior to Friday night’s game - so this does not take into account any further bullpen implosions.

Assume no trades are made - make any assumptions you like with players already in the organization.  Set your ideal pitching staff for the rest of the season.

Mine is like this:

SP Chris Carpenter
SP Adam Wainwright
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Todd Wellemeyer
SP Joel Pineiro

Spot starts, long relief - Brad Thompson
Middle relief, mop up - Jason Isringhausen
Middle relief, left-handed specialist - Ron Villone
Middle relief, set-up - Kyle McClellan
Set-up - Russ Springer
Set-up - Ryan Franklin
Closer - Braden Looper

So I’m assuming that Carp and Waino will return to contribute.  I’m sending Randy Flores to Memphis, and sending out Boggs and Jimenez to reactivate Carp and Waino.

At the next sign of any trouble or ineffectiveness (I know, he’s already had lots of shots), I send Isringhausen down and bring up either Flores, Mark Worrell, or Anthony Reyes.

If Looper is not working at closer, McClellan is next in line.  He can get out both righties and lefties, which I think is a good attribute for someone trying to lock down a game.  Perez is next in line after those two guys at the closer slot.

I try to avoid using Mitch Boggs, Jaime Garcia, or Mike Parisi anymore this year.  Those guys need to remain starters and get their work as such, quit messing with their routines and confidence by yo-yoing them between starting and relief.

Alright, I’m sure this will be subject to much skepticism and ridicule - what’s your ideal pitching staff setup?

McClellan to the rotation? Why?

It’s that wonderful time of the baseball season called the All-Star Break where, regardless of your team’s current position in the standings, discussion inevitably turns to what might happen in the post-season.  Who’s going to be a free agent?  What players are sure to be traded (perhaps even at this season’s deadline)?  What are the team’s chances of competing next year?

It is in this rampant “what if?” discussion that I keep seeing Kyle McClellan’s name come up while inferring that he could or should slide into the Cardinals’ starting pitching rotation for 2009.  Now I realize that most of this is being spurred on by the talk earlier in the season that K-Mac was an option to make some starts, because surely the Redbirds’ season was over after they had suffered injuries to Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, and the refusal of Mark Mulder’s shoulder to cooperate with his brain.

Well, here we are, five weeks later, and the rotation has managed to survive.  Mike Parisi made a couple of uninspiring starts, Mitchell Boggs helped them stay afloat, and Brad Thompson has bailed them out of some short-start situations.

Word is that Wainwright could be back in early August (I don’t care what Orel Hershiser says).  That leaves some combination of Waino, Pineiro, Wellemeyer, should’ve-been-All-Star Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, and then any mix of Boggs, Jaime Garcia, even maybe Anthony Reyes (who is back to dominating AAA after his stint on the DL) or Chris Carpenter before the season is out.  And that’s just for this season.

So again I ask, why would the Cardinals move McClellan to the rotation?

Next year looks even more promising, if we make a couple of assumptions.  Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro, and Wellemeyer are all virtually assured of being in the starting rotation when the team breaks camp in 2009 (I know, knock on wood).  That still leaves Boggs, Garcia, Parisi, Reyes (or whomever they might get in trade for him), even Thompson perhaps.  Then you take into account a possible re-up with Lohse or Looper, and again, the rotation looks pretty full from my point of view.  Depending on off-season signings and/or resignings and development of a couple of youngsters, this rotation looks pretty stacked already without considering McClellan for that role.

I know the arguments FOR putting McClellan in the rotation.  He keeps the ball down (generally) which Duncan loves.  He has four pretty good pitches that he can throw.  He was originally drafted as a starter.  They’re expecting a Wainwright-esque transformation out of him.

That’s all fine and good, and he could well turn into a wonderful starter for the Cardinals if that’s the route they take.  But again, I ask, presented with the evidence above, why?

Still not convinced?

McClellan hasn’t been a full-time starting pitcher since 2005 (and even that’s debatable, since he made only 8 starts that year in 17 appearances).  He had Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in July 2005 after being moved to the bullpen in Quad Cities in May after struggling as a starter.  He came back briefly in August of 2006 to make 3 rehab starts with Johnson City (which lasted a total of 7 innings combined) before having to go back under the knife, this time for ulnar nerve surgery to move a nerve somewhat related to the Tommy John procedure.  Since then, McClellan has made 1 total start in Palm Beach, and 84 relief appearances between Palm Beach, Springfield, and now St Louis.  His ERA in relief was 1.24 in Palm Beach, 2.35 in Springfield, and now 2.94 with the Cardinals after completely skipping AAA Memphis.

McClellan and Russ Springer have been the stalwarts of an otherwise suspect bullpen this season for the Cardinals.  McClellan has logged the most innings of any Cardinal reliever (which I guess might lend it’s self to starting, since he’s putting in innings and in theory stretching himself out).  Why take away one of the best parts of a struggling unit?

Sure, next season you’ll see more Chris Perez and maybe Mark Worrell.  But then who?  Jason Isringhausen isn’t likely to be back.  Who knows about Springer, Ron Villone, and Randy Flores?  The Cards have much more important places on the roster to spend their money besides more retreads to run through the bullpen.  Why keep throwing mud at the wall to see if it will stick?  McClellan is, for now, a proven commodity (hopefully his arm holds up for another 30 or so innings this year).

If you want to impress me by moving McClellan somewhere, name him your closer for 2009 this winter.  THAT would be a productive move.

Recapping the Detroit series (puke)

Utter and Complete Failure - 2
Success - 1

That’s about the best way I can describe the last three days versus the Tigers. And that doesn’t encompass the whole team - plenty of Cardinal players did quite well for themselves in the vast expanse of outfield that is Comerica Park.

The bullpen was another story.

I was all set to type up a quick set of notes on Tuesday night’s game, after watching the Cubs lose to the Orioles (all the while obsessively checking the Cards game on my phone and keeping tabs on the Wrigley scoreboard), and seeing the Birds take yet another series opener - spirits were high. I was prepared to post that this was my ideal setup for the bullpen for the rest of the season:

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
B Looper (W, 9-5)	6.0	7	4	4	1	3	3	95-66	4.22
R Springer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12-8	2.28
K McClellan	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	12-8	2.45
R Franklin	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	15-10	2.78

Russ Springer, Kyle McClellan, Ryan Franklin to close out the win - and not a single run surrendered.

Then there was Wednesday night’s game. Winnable, certainly, by all accounts.

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
K Lohse	4.0	11	5	5	1	2	1	83-53	3.94
C Perez	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	45-29	3.71
J Isringhausen (B, 7)	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	13-5	6.29
R Flores	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2-2	5.12
K McClellan (L, 0-3; B, 3)	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	18-11	2.61

Ok, so Kyle Lohse wasn’t real successful to begin with, but it’s difficult not to give up hits when the park you’re in makes routine fly balls into hits.  Comerica is the polar opposite of Minute Maid Park.  While the Juice Box can barely contain a routine fly ball, Comerica turns them into singles barely beyond the infield dirt.  It’s a truly fascinating phenomenon.

Anyway, it was good to see Chris Perez get back on track in an extended outing, but the rest of the guys basically crapped the bed, culminating in McClellan’s “performance” in throwing a wild pitch to put Randy Flores’ inherited runner (via a fielder’s choice, the runner was still Flores’ responsibility) into scoring position, which against this bullpen might as well mean he’s already crossed the plate.

Then there was today’s gem.

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
T Wellemeyer	5.0	4	0	0	0	3	0	76-50	3.46
R Villone	0.2	2	1	1	2	2	0	26-14	5.83
J Isringhausen	2.1	2	0	0	0	2	0	27-19	5.74
R Franklin (B, 4)	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	20-14	2.95
M Parisi (L, 0-4)	0.2	1	1	1	3	0	0	22-8	8.22

Flores was sent down to make room for Albert Pujols’ triumphant return - El Hombre was four-for-four and reached base in all five plate appearances, including an RBI single to take the lead in the top of the ninth - and Ron Villone assumed Flores’ spot in the LOOGY role.  Except Tony LaRussa forgot how the role he basically invented works.  Villone continued to pitch to right-handed hitters after allowing his one lefty batter, Curtis Granderson to reach base.  The problem there is that righties pretty much get paid their salaries by facing Villone.

Jason Isringhausen pitched a surprisingly solid two inning outing following up Villone, then handed the game over to Ryan Franklin.  Franklin blew the save in the bottom of nine (raise your hand if you didn’t see that one coming), and new staff pariah Mike Parisi walked in the winning run in the bottom of the tenth.

Now, as anyone who reads here regularly will know, I’ve defended Parisi in the recent past.  I will go only so far as to say that LaRussa ordered two intentional walks in the inning to pretty much guarantee Parisi would fail.  Short of that, this kid has to perform.  I’m done making excuses for him, and frankly, I’d be surprised if we ever see him in the majors again with St Louis.

So ultimately, the Cardinals had yet another opportunity to sweep in Detroit.  Once again, it was against a team that would be a huge boost and success had they completed the sweep.  Instead, they walk away with two losses they essentially gave away.  The bullpen is to blame.

Sure, Troy Glaus and Ryan Ludwick stranded seven runners each today, but the Cardinals still had the lead going into the bottom of the ninth.  Stranded runners and missed opportunities or not, the Cards had chances to win - I dare say games in hand - and blew it.  That’s on the bullpen.

Exciting stat of the week following this series?  The starting rotation is (including today’s game) 36-17.  The bullpen is 9-18.  That’s disgusting.

Worse?  Look at that link again.  The starters have surrendered 126 walks in 474.1 innings pitched (again, including today’s game).  The bullpen has allowed 121 walks in 247 innings pitched.  That’s not disgusting, that’s appalling.  It’s unfathomable.

Something has to give with this bullpen.  One can only assume that Flores’ “ankle discomfort” or whatever excuse they gave to put him on the disabled list is just that, an excuse to get his head right, similar to Izzy’s laceration.  Problem is, even with his head right, I don’t think Flores can keep this team in contention out of the bullpen.  I know Ron Villone can’t do it.  McClellan is getting to the point of being borderline overused.  Springer can’t go on back to back days because of the mileage on his arm (at least presumably).

GM John Mozeliak finds himself in what may be the first true test of his tenure with the club.  The team is in contention.  They seemingly have enough weapons on offense (can TLR please keep finding at-bats for Aaron Miles?) as long as they don’t all slump at once.  The starting pitching is solid, so long as they don’t have any more major breakdowns in health between now and the end of the season.  The glaring need is in the bullpen.

Perhaps some starters coming back from the extended disabled list can bolster the bullpen by causing a more-or-less forced shift in the arms on the staff, but I wouldn’t count on it.

I’m usually not prone to exaggeration, but I think the Cards find themselves on a slippery slope right now.  Surely there are lots of folks in that pen losing confidence as we speak (if they have any left to spare), and it doesn’t seem to be improving.  Before long, MLB is going to catch onto the Bill Belichick-esque act of putting these guys on the DL with hang-nails in order to give their brains a chance to forget about blown saves and 1-run losses of the past.

For reference sake, Dr. Paletta, just how long does it take for a pitcher to forget that he walked in a winning run in the bottom of the tenth inning?

Where the bullpen falters

Ok, who can come up with the most jokes quickest here?

“Any Major League ballpark?”

“Any field that has dirt?”

“Everywhere?”

As I was watching the Cardinals’ blow another good start by Braden Looper, this time with Kyle McClellan the culprit, I was thinking about what the major downfall of this year’s bullpen has been.

Well, given tonight’s outcome, and last night’s outcome, surely it’s the insane amount of home runs this bunch has given up so far, right? (Well, not to mention that without Albert Pujols in the lineup, the Cards are only providing their pitching staff 1.5 runs per game against the lowly Royals.)

The statistics seem to indicate that long balls are not the problem. In fact, at 61 home runs surrendered as of last night, the Cards ranked second in the National League in fewest home runs allowed. To go one step further, only 21 of those homers were allowed by the bullpen - a proportionate amount to the starters’ 40 when you figure that Cardinal pitchers have gone 429 innings as starters and 217 2/3 as relievers (again, these stats are through last night’s loss).

No, where the issue could possibly lie - and bring up a hilarious Tim McCarver reference in the process - is in the number of walks being surrendered by the bullpen.

Now, before you completely crucify me - listen to the evidence. The Cardinals are surrendering, as a team, the second fewest walks in the National League. Great stat, right? However, digging deeper, a quick look at the splits between starters and relievers for the Cardinals reveals that and innings-to-virtually everything comparison falls in line - except for earned runs and walks. Innings-to-HR, innings-to-hits, innings-to-SLG, they’re all real close ratios.

The walks go off at 120 for the starters in 429 innings versus 102 free passes issued in 217 2/3 for the relievers.

That is an astounding number that begs the question - are the Cards relievers that bad, or are their starters that good - at avoiding walks? A quick review of the other National League teams would suggest that it’s probably both. The starters do such a good job of not walking any hitters that the bullpen looks much worse in comparison. And since we have two “career” relievers in our starting rotation who are still learning (slowly) to get past six innings in their starts, LaRussa has to get into his ‘pen earlier.

The Cardinals have been as successful as we’ve seen this year based on the strength of their starting rotation and their 33-16 combined record. The bullpen is 9-14. Certainly could be worse, but they have been bailed out a few times even despite themselves.

What has happened to this crew since their 30-12 campaign last year?

No Tyler Johnson for one. I think Johnson would go a long way toward healing what ails this bullpen. Randy Flores is clearly not the answer as LOOGY - he can’t even do that effectively anymore. Ideally, Flores would assume Ron Villone’s current role, with Johnson being the shut-down lefty.

Jason Isringhausen’s implosion has created the other rift in the bullpen fabric. That’s not to say the other guys haven’t pitched well in his absence. Ryan Franklin has held his own in the closer role. Russ Springer (outside of one or two games) hasn’t been terrible. McClellan has performed admirably as a rookie.

But some these guys are currently mis-matched for their roles. Franklin could perhaps be even more successful in the set-up role he inhabited while Izzy was still blowing games. He was, if I recall correctly, leading the NL in holds at the time Izzy went on the DL (May 15). He had a 1.80 ERA. Villone has not been successful assuming the long-relief role (which I still say was being manned successfully by Mike Parisi before they threw him into a couple of starts and subsequently gave up on him). Perhaps the return of Brad Thompson will help to take some of the pressure off of Villone in those situations?

At any rate, there is going to be a conflict in the roster soon, with Thompson due back off of the disabled list any day. Sure, he’ll probably get spot starts for the most part until one of the regular starters can get back to regularly starting. But then what? Surely they won’t send Villone down, as Tony needs to have his lefties available for matchup scenarios. Springer has pitched well enough that he won’t be sent out. Anthony Reyes is probably on a fast train back to Memphis already as it is. But then who is the odd man out? Chris Perez, the rookie who has excelled in middle to setup work? They need to get Perez his innings this season to get him ready for the closer’s role next season.

Might be time for Mozeliak to deal from some strengths here (outfield overcrowding, anyone?) to shore up spots like LOOGY and second base.

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