Catching up with the Cardinals’ off-season

So I’ve been biding my time, waiting, watching, allowing the news to come to me. As I’m sure my loyal readers know (all three of you), it’s been eerily quiet.

Let’s catch up with the goings on…

The UCB Roundtable on Albert Pujols: El Hombre, El Extension?

So today is my turn in the esteemed United Cardinal Bloggers’ Roundtable discussions taking place this month of October.  I’ve had a great time going back and forth with this red bleeding bunch, no matter agreeing or disagreeing.  While most of the Cardinal fandom is focused on who the Redbirds can add this off-season, I wanted to know what the group thought of keeping (and taking care of) the current face of the Cardinals, Albert Pujols.

Albert Pujols is due to receive $16m for 2009 and another $16m for 2010.  2011 is a club option for $16m.  If you’re John Mozeliak, when do you start renegotiating El Hombre’s contract?  Albert’s never really seemed one to be greedy, but his current contract is clearly beginning to lag behind some arguably inferior hitters.  How much would you be willing to pay annually for his next deal, knowing that the Cards’ ownership seems stuck around the $100m payroll mark?

Most of the answers were not terribly surprising in general terms.  There was a good variety, however, of opinions on when and how much.

Don Daniel - The Redbird Blog

Albert is one of those unique players who means a lot more to a franchise than simply his statistics.  He has been, and will be, the face of the St. Louis Cardinals for an entire generation of Cardinal fans.  So, that being said, I believe the Cardinals’ front office has to do everything they can to ensure that Pujols is a Cardinal for his entire career.

First off, I’m assuming the Cardinals have every intention of exercising the 2011 club option.  So if I were John Mozeliak, I would seek authority from ownership to approach Albert after the 2009 season (or early in the 2010 season) regarding a contract extension. I would not wait until Albert reaches the final year of his deal.  I think approaching Albert early accomplishes two things:  (1) shows loyalty to the player on the part of ownership, and (2) allows the team to budget for its future (i.e., “cost certainty”).  I think, as part of that negotiation, the team should expect to perhaps offer a “raise” for the final two years of Albert’s current deal (even if the money is deferred).

In terms of dollars offered for Albert’s next contract, I think you’d have to use A-Rod as a guidepost.  It’s a crapload of money to be sure, but Albert will be in his early 30s when his current contract expires.  I’d expect he’d want at least a 7-8 year deal (maybe $150-$165M)?  One would hope he’d be willing to offer somce concessions to the Redbirds in order to allow them to remain competitive (e.g., backloading of the contract, deferring money over a 20-year period, etc.).

Scott Deaner - Cardinal Nation Globe

You’re right, Albert has never really seemed one to be greedy, however, he needs to be paid like one of the best hitters in the game and a franchise player. I say, pay him whatever will keep him in St. Louis for the rest of his (productive) career. Also, his personality and work ethic should not be overlooked - he is the epitome of a player to build a team around. I say give him a 7-8 year contract in the mid-$20 million range. Ownership might just have to get over the $100 million mark.

Mike Metzger - Stan Musial’s Stance

I have been a vocal fiscal responsibility voice (”$36 million for Fuentes?!  Are you crazy!?!) in these threads, but in AP’s case, I agree with Deaner.  Pay the man.  Future first-ballot Hall of Famers should play their entire careers for one team.

However, I’m not sure when the appropriate time is to start negotiating his next contract.  I wouldn’t start now; I’b probably wait until the next off-season to initiate discussions, and try to get something done in earnest after they pick up his 2011 option.

Haedar Abuirqeba - Redbird Ramblings

If I could, I’d give AP a blank check and blank number of years and let him fill it out as he wishes because I trust his judgement; he is el hombre after all. that, however, is not very realistic. you gotta have enough money left over to put a decent team on the field day in and day out.

so, I would let things play out for the next two seasons (09 and 10). then, I would start negotiating with AP on an extension late in the ‘10 season or that offseason. if nothing gets done, you pick up the option and negotiate during that final year until you reach a deal. with albert, nothing really concerns me except that elbow. in 2010, he will be 30 years old (only!). so, I would say the cards can give him a six to seven year deal to keep him in a cards uniform for the rest of his career.

now, how much cash are they gonna be dishing out? one has to think that it will be at least 20 million a year; probably around 25 million. if anyone in baseball is worth that money, albert is (when healthy of course).

Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat

Of course, the longer you wait, the higher the market goes, and inferior hitters start pushing up the prices of the stars.

I’d start now, honestly.  It’s not like Carpenter, where if he does have surgery the whole extension bit is considered a dismal failure.  Even if AP missed all of ‘09, does anyone think management wouldn’t want to extend him anyway?  He is easily the face of the franchise and some days the only thing that keeps many in the fanbase from storming the gates.

How much?  I agree, I don’t think you have to set contract records with AP.  An average of $22-$25 million, though, would probably be reasonable.  He’d still be a bargain.

Scott Deaner - Cardinal Nation Globe (in response to Haedar)

I enjoyed reading your comment about the blank check and trusting Albert’s judgement. I read a biography of Honus Wagner a few years back and apparently the Pirates used to do that with him. Wagner would never ask for a raise, he always wanted, “same as last year.” Honus, like Albert, was a good, honorable man. FYI - That’s why Honus Wagner’s baseball card is so rare and valueable. The card was given out with tobacco products and Wagner didn’t want his name/picture associated with that because he knew that kids looked up to him, so he asked for them to be destroyed. I could see Albert doing something similar.

Mike West - Mike on the Cards

Albert is one of those rarest of rare baseball players.  One that puts up ridiculous numbers year in and year out, but is always striving to get better.  He’s a leader, both on and off the field, making everyone around him better in the process.  Alberts don’t grow on trees, so we should be thankful we get to see him play everyday.

So, I do think it’s very important to keep him around for the rest of his career, and for whatever kind of money it takes.  I’d guess close to $25 million a year, average.  I don’t, however, think it’s necessary to start extension talks with him anytime soon.  I’d say get a deal done before the start of the 2011 season.  I would hope that by then the Cards will have a few more minimum salary guys making major contributions to the club.

John Shelton - The Cardinal Virtue

Pujols = Legend. It is more fiscally responsible to pay him premium. The thing is: Albert is smart too. He knows that moving to another franchise does not help your status. It’s worth several million to stay where you are and be worshipped. I also think he is also aware that the no doubt Hall of Famers–the legends–tend to have spent almost all their career with one team. The team is also aware of the revenue of having a legend play for only them. There are two trains of thought regarding when to renegotiate. If you do it now, you avoid the general inflation and you show that you are appreciative of his top level talent and want to show him that you are willing to pay him accordingly. However, since he is having surgery, you could say that next year is the time to do that so that you can see how that all pans out. Personally, I believe he is more than worth the risk. In summary: It is fiscally MORE RESPONSIBLE to make him one of the highest paid players NOW than to mess around and low-ball.

Eric Ferguson - Bert Flex

I’m not going to get into specific dollars/years, but I agree with the general sentiment that you don’t let him hit the market. Do it quietly in the next 18 months — ideally, we won’t even know about the negotiations until they are already complete.

See you all in Cooperstown for the Albert induction.

Matthew Philip - Fungoes

I’m sure Albert appreciates all the love expressed in your sentiments so far, so I hope I don’t bring everyone down with a little dissent. Albert just finished his age-28 season; he’ll be 29 when the season starts. As amazing as his 2008 campaign was, it probably won’t get any better than that. Remember Bill James’s warning: “Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.” True, Albert is an individual and not a group, but he is still mortal and subject to the same laws as everyone else. So here’s what the Cardinals have at minimum: Albert signed at below-market cost for the next three years. He will have played his age-29 -30 and -31 seasons. One thing that I don’t think I’ve seen anyone address is how long an extension should be. One year? Five? At that point, the Cardinals will be dealing with Albert at age 32 onward. That’s not usually a good time to invest (it’s called “buying high”). On one hand, if anyone seems capable of still producing at high levels late in his career, it’s Pujols. On the other, it’s interesting how quickly we forget our lessons of history, namely of Chris Carpenter (extended for his age-34-37 seasons), Mark Mulder and Jim Edmonds (and, though it wasn’t an extension, Scott Rolen). The guy still has three years on his existing deal; I know that the Cardinals have lately tried to leverage their position with players under contract, but let’s let the guy play another year or two before we throw more guaranteed money his way. I’m not arguing that the team shouldn’t try to tack on three more years to Pujols’s present contract, but I don’t think that the Giants-Bonds model (losing team, one aging superstar) is what we want.

Tom Knuppel - Cardinals GM

Albert can and should write his own contract. I know that the money spent can be spread out over many players but none as special as  Pujols. I would give him $25 million a year for another 7-10 years.

Goodness that’s a lot to digest!  Some excellent points, most talking about Albert’s long-term value as a ‘Cardinal Legend’.

My take

While Pip tries to throw water on the fire, I’m going to agree with everyone else that you give this man many years, and you give him many dollars.

In a free agent class that will get Mark Teixeira at least a five year deal that will approach $200mm dollars total, imagine what Pujols would fetch.  Believe it or not, Mang and Tex are the same age, 28.  Anyone think Teixeira is the better player?  The better hitter?  The better fielder?  A better team leader?  Didn’t think so.

I believe that you give Pujols 2009 to see if this recent procedure on his elbow helped matters any.  If it didn’t, he still puts up another MVP-type season.  If it did, who knows what he could do?  Obviously the prospects of putting another fearsome hitter behind Albert in the lineup are slim, but if Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel and even muster cheap impressions of their 2008 seasons, Pujols should be no worse for wear in the protection department.

After the 2009 season, you quietly (I liked the suggestion above to get the deal done with no attention, then quietly announce it) re-up with Pujols, say - six years, $130-150mm.  We could only assume Albert will take it, while likely deferring most of it (as in his previous contract), and finishing his career as a Cardinal.  He is a major buyer of ‘The Cardinal Way’.

Concerned about early decline?  Pujols is a relentless worker, always trying to improve.  It is my opinion that he will last long into his thirties.  Still not convinced?  Structure his deal like the late years with Ozzie Smith.  Basically a lifetime deal, renegotiated year-in and year-out, ultimately ending with a personal services contract that will allow the club to gain some benefit from their paid-out cash on the back end of the deal.

Bottom line, I don’t think you can lose inking this guy to another long-term deal, and the sooner the more reasonable per year cost, I think.  The Cardinals are obviously looking to become more self-sufficient, perhaps even with an eye on what it is going to cost them to retain Pujols for the remainder of his career.  So why not try to cost-control that as soon as possible?

Thanks for reading folks!  Check out all the other great blogs in the United Cardinal Bloggers’ Roundtable, and stay tuned here for links to the rest of the questions and discussions!

UPDATE: Added another response from Tom over at Cardinals GM!

Izzy Injured

You’ve probably all heard by now that Jason Isringhausen’s tenure as a Cardinal is likely coming to an end with the announcement of a torn flexor muscle and inflammation in his elbow.

I had previously speculated that Izzy had an undisclosed injury so this announcement comes as no surprise. The question is again one of disclosure. Was Izzy hiding this injury from the Cardinals in an attempt to achieve the 300 save milestone, or was the Cardinal organization hiding it? And how long has this been a lingering concern? Certainly Izzy was feeling discomfort and making a game effort to contribute to the club and pitch through the pain.

I for one applaud all that Izzy has done for the Cardinals. He has had a tremendous impact and despite a few injury plagued seasons where he wasn’t effective, he has been the reliable stopper that a team needs to have winning seasons.

Izzy left Oakland as a free agent and was signed by the Cardinals prior to the 2002 season. From 2002 through 2005 Izzy accumulated 140 Saves, 8W, 7L, 231K, 86BB, 175HA, in 241.2IP. Despite recent memory suggesting he would walk runners or always seem to have men on base, his W+H/IP ratio was around 1 except for the injury plagued year of 2006 and of course this year, seemingly another injury plagued year.

During his post season career Izzy pitched in 23 games earning 1 win and 11 saves with a 2.36 ERA. He pitched in 26 2/3 innings allowing 17 hits and 12 walks while striking out 23.

2006 seemed to be the turning point for Izzy and Cardinal Nation. We didn’t realize the extent of the injury that Izzy was dealing with and all we saw was one terrible performance after another. Hiding the injury hurt the relationship with the fans and did nothing to make him more effective against the opponents. Last year he rebounded nicely, but you had to wonder whether the hip would hold up. Turns out the elbow dealt the final blow. Yes, Izzy may still pitch again, but hard to imagine any scenario where he returns to the Cardinals next year given his huge salary.

So I guess it’s time to turn all of our attention to Mr. Chris Perez and see how he meaures up to the closer role. He will have big shoes to fill. I will conclude by saying that this recent announcement of Izzy’s injury has me a bit more concerned with the status of Chris Carpenter and even Adam Wainwright. How often did we hear the positive news about Mark Mulder and Matt Clement just to be frustrated when learning how far away they really were from joining any major league rotation.

Shut Carp down - now

The news at ESPN.com is that and MRI has revealed that Chris Carpenter has a strain in his pitching *shoulder*, not a triceps strain as previously thought and reported.

LaRussa and Duncan are already preparing to use either Brad Thompson or Jaime Garcia in Carpenter’s rotation slot on Friday.

In yet another setback for a Cardinal starting pitcher returning from injury, the Cards have a lot more on the line with this one.  Carp is owed $15M per season for the next three years, each of which they desperately need him to be their ace.  There is absolutely no reason to try and rush him back to pitching again this year.  In what is quickly becoming a floundering playoff push (I’m still optimistic, but cautiously so), the Cardinals need to protect their investment in the future years of Carp’s contract.  It even makes me cringe a little to read “…will rejoin his teammates in Florida, where he will receive treatment from the team’s medical staff.”  Great, so they’re going to let Dr Paletta(nother pitcher’s arm implode) work on him.  Fabulous.

In a sick twist, this has at least brought the Cardinals’ brass to their senses regarding Adam Wainwright, according to STLToday.com.  Waino’s next rehab start is being pushed back to Saturday, where he will pitch for AA Springfield (not Memphis, as in his previous two outings) and get in 65-70 pitches.  This is good news, in my book.  However, the yo-yo-ing continues with this team.  Is he going to pitch in relief or start?  I realize situations are dictating responses in this case, but the guy has to get in the right mental state to know when and how he needs to pitch.  Sure, I give the benefit of the doubt to Wainwright and his mental strength and testicular fortitude, versus say a Joel Pineiro or even a Kyle Lohse, but I reckon it’d be helpful for him to know one way or another.  Hell, it’s probably even better for his arm if he prepares specifically one way or another.

The Cardinals, for better or worse, put their eggs in the Carpenter/Wainwright basket at the trade deadline.  Unlike a lot of Cards fans, I wasn’t terribly disappointed at the deadline, I think they were just being realistic about the capital they had to use in a trade, and where this team is headed for the next five seasons.

But if that was their excuse then, it has to be their approach now.  Don’t make a Mark Mulder story out of Carp, who has a history with his shoulder as it is.  Shut him down and hope that the rest of the Cardinals can pick up the slack.  After all, they’ve done it all season…

Brad Thompson saves the day

Is there a statistic for a guy who comes in, usually in long relief, and just continues to give his team a chance to win, often times following a short start (whether because of injury or poor performance)?

If so, I’d be willing to bet that Brad Thompson would have a favorable number in that column.

Chris Carpenter made his first start after returning from Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow last night against the Braves, and while Carp arguably did very well given a short rehab assignment and a still-developing command of his pitches, Thompson came in and threw 2 2/3 innings of really good baseball to give the Cards the opportunity to win.

That led me to chasing down just what Thompson has meant to this team, in a wildly varying role, from cleaning up the mess of Cardinal starters to mopping up late innings in games already ruined by the staff.  I expected to see decent success from Thompson - what I found is that he has been wildly successful in his “role”, in my opinion.

Since being recalled (this essentially encompasses the month of July), Thompson is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 innings pitched over 8 appearances.  On the surface, that doesn’t seem all that special, until you consider the situations he’s been thrust into.

Brad cleaned up for Todd Wellemeyer on the first of July, throwing four innings in relief and only allowing one run on two hits, with the team unable to overcome the six runs surrendered by Wellemeyer.  Point being, Thompson didn’t let the wound open up any further, the offense just couldn’t put enough together.  I would call that a successful outing.

On July 9th, the fabled Mark Mulder start, Thompson came in after Mulder’s 1/3 of an inning and proceeded to go 4 1/3 giving up 2 runs on 5 hits.  The Cardinal offense was feeble that night, mustering only two runs against a rookie left-hander for the Phillies.  Two was enough to tie the game, making Thompson’s outing all the more worthwhile - before the bullpen failed him and surrendered two runs to suffer the loss.

During the San Diego sweep, on July 18, Thompson this time bailed out Braden Looper (who gave up six runs in three innings) by giving the Cards a solid 2 1/3 with only one run scored.  This time Thompson was backed up by a rare solid bullpen outing, with the arms behind him holding the Padres scoreless for the remaining 3 2/3.  Thompson stood to take the loss if that seventh run had held for the Pads, but who else would’ve been able to give that performance coming in in the fourth inning?  “Enough to win the game” has really been an important part of this team’s success this year.

He followed that outing up two days later by accomplishing the blown save-win double.  Thompson this time came on in the ninth inning to clean up Jason Isringhausen’s mess, and despite allowing the first batter to double and hang an inherited run on Izzy, Thompson closed out the final two outs after an intentional pass to get the Cards out of the inning and preserve the tie.  Aaron Miles hung the grand slam on the Padres in the bottom, and Thompson got the win.

July 26th against the Mets, after pitching two innings the night before, Thompson was called upon in the 13th inning, with really no one left behind him, to go as long as he could.  It only took one perfect inning before the Cardinals scored, and another perfect inning to get the win.

That brings us back to last night, taking over for Carp, this time not because of poor performance, but just to give Carpenter’s rebuilt elbow a break as he continues to get his stamina back.

Thompson has been a stalwart in the Cardinal bullpen since coming back from the disabled list and Memphis.  He goes out, when called upon, regardless of situation, tired or not, and continues to produce.  He’s prone to a home run now and then, he’ll give up runs - but on a regular basis, he keeps the team in games that they still have a chance to win when he enters.

Sure, you could argue that Thompson should get some starts - you could argue that he should be a regular in middle relief - but this role seems to suit him well, he seems comfortable with it.  It’s a role that most teams hope they never have to utilize, but the Cardinals do not have that luxury.

Kudos Brad Thompson.  Here’s hoping that you get more work in a middle relief role soon.

McClellan to the rotation? Why?

It’s that wonderful time of the baseball season called the All-Star Break where, regardless of your team’s current position in the standings, discussion inevitably turns to what might happen in the post-season.  Who’s going to be a free agent?  What players are sure to be traded (perhaps even at this season’s deadline)?  What are the team’s chances of competing next year?

It is in this rampant “what if?” discussion that I keep seeing Kyle McClellan’s name come up while inferring that he could or should slide into the Cardinals’ starting pitching rotation for 2009.  Now I realize that most of this is being spurred on by the talk earlier in the season that K-Mac was an option to make some starts, because surely the Redbirds’ season was over after they had suffered injuries to Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, and the refusal of Mark Mulder’s shoulder to cooperate with his brain.

Well, here we are, five weeks later, and the rotation has managed to survive.  Mike Parisi made a couple of uninspiring starts, Mitchell Boggs helped them stay afloat, and Brad Thompson has bailed them out of some short-start situations.

Word is that Wainwright could be back in early August (I don’t care what Orel Hershiser says).  That leaves some combination of Waino, Pineiro, Wellemeyer, should’ve-been-All-Star Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, and then any mix of Boggs, Jaime Garcia, even maybe Anthony Reyes (who is back to dominating AAA after his stint on the DL) or Chris Carpenter before the season is out.  And that’s just for this season.

So again I ask, why would the Cardinals move McClellan to the rotation?

Next year looks even more promising, if we make a couple of assumptions.  Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro, and Wellemeyer are all virtually assured of being in the starting rotation when the team breaks camp in 2009 (I know, knock on wood).  That still leaves Boggs, Garcia, Parisi, Reyes (or whomever they might get in trade for him), even Thompson perhaps.  Then you take into account a possible re-up with Lohse or Looper, and again, the rotation looks pretty full from my point of view.  Depending on off-season signings and/or resignings and development of a couple of youngsters, this rotation looks pretty stacked already without considering McClellan for that role.

I know the arguments FOR putting McClellan in the rotation.  He keeps the ball down (generally) which Duncan loves.  He has four pretty good pitches that he can throw.  He was originally drafted as a starter.  They’re expecting a Wainwright-esque transformation out of him.

That’s all fine and good, and he could well turn into a wonderful starter for the Cardinals if that’s the route they take.  But again, I ask, presented with the evidence above, why?

Still not convinced?

McClellan hasn’t been a full-time starting pitcher since 2005 (and even that’s debatable, since he made only 8 starts that year in 17 appearances).  He had Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in July 2005 after being moved to the bullpen in Quad Cities in May after struggling as a starter.  He came back briefly in August of 2006 to make 3 rehab starts with Johnson City (which lasted a total of 7 innings combined) before having to go back under the knife, this time for ulnar nerve surgery to move a nerve somewhat related to the Tommy John procedure.  Since then, McClellan has made 1 total start in Palm Beach, and 84 relief appearances between Palm Beach, Springfield, and now St Louis.  His ERA in relief was 1.24 in Palm Beach, 2.35 in Springfield, and now 2.94 with the Cardinals after completely skipping AAA Memphis.

McClellan and Russ Springer have been the stalwarts of an otherwise suspect bullpen this season for the Cardinals.  McClellan has logged the most innings of any Cardinal reliever (which I guess might lend it’s self to starting, since he’s putting in innings and in theory stretching himself out).  Why take away one of the best parts of a struggling unit?

Sure, next season you’ll see more Chris Perez and maybe Mark Worrell.  But then who?  Jason Isringhausen isn’t likely to be back.  Who knows about Springer, Ron Villone, and Randy Flores?  The Cards have much more important places on the roster to spend their money besides more retreads to run through the bullpen.  Why keep throwing mud at the wall to see if it will stick?  McClellan is, for now, a proven commodity (hopefully his arm holds up for another 30 or so innings this year).

If you want to impress me by moving McClellan somewhere, name him your closer for 2009 this winter.  THAT would be a productive move.

The revolving door keeps spinning

Welcome to the big leagues, Jaime Garcia.

This actually isn’t a horrible move in my book, assuming it’s only temporary. I think the Cardinals need to really seriously consider now the acquisition of a left-handed thrower, regardless of starter or reliever. I’d hate to see Garcia get banged around like Mike Parisi or Mitchell Boggs - in a call up that is really before he’s ready, in my humble opinion - and ruin his confidence. The Cardinals don’t need another four-A pitcher hanging around.

Godspeed, Mark Mulder. While many have - and continue to - bag on this guy, I was always pulling for him. Sure, the trade turned out poorly in hindsight for the Cards, and sure, Mulder’s return on investment that we’ve seen from Walt Jocketty’s ill-advised contract extension has been virtually nil. But I don’t think anyone can question his heart, his determination, and ultimately his disappointment at seeing his career end so abruptly (even though one could argue that his career “ended” long ago). From STLToday.com:

Mulder is scheduled to have an MRI today in St. Louis; the procedure may be little more than a formality for a pitcher who has needed two shoulder operations and has had four unsuccessful rehab assignments since earning his last major-league win in June 2006.

Mulder is on record as saying he’d rather retire than go through another surgery and rehab. With this season seemingly over, from the reports, and the Cardinals surely not picking up his option for next season, this all too likely signals the end of the road for Mulder.

The optimist in me is still keeping my fingers crossed, for his sake.


Filed Under Jaime Garcia, Mark Mulder, Mike Parisi, Mitchell Boggs

6 Comments | Posted on July 10, 2008 by PHE | Subscribe!

Sabathia, Harden, and Whom?

*Sigh*  Another rain delay.  Bad for baseball, good for writing.

As I reflected further last night and today on the big trades that took place in the NL Central earlier in the week - for those not paying attention, the Brewers got CC Sabathia and the Cubs got Rich Harden - the more I’m convinced that the Cardinals did the right thing by not getting into either sweepstakes.

I know a lot of Cardinal fans are convinced that John Mozeliak could’ve come up with just as much as the Cubs did for Harden without harming the long-term future of the club, but for what?  For Harden to go down with injury and for someone like Anthony Reyes or Mitchell Boggs or Jaime Garcia to finally put it all together and become this trade’s Danny Haren?

I thought Jayson Stark had a great snippet in his article about the deal on ESPN.com:

In fact, one baseball man called Oakland’s decision to trade Harden now — while he’s pitching great and the A’s are still in a race — a “serious red flag.” Meanwhile, in a potentially related development, a scout we surveyed reported that Harden’s velocity hasn’t been quite the same in his most recent couple of starts, since his eight-inning, 11-strikeout two-hitter against the Phillies on June 26.

The Cubs GM Jim Hendry may well have pulled a master-stroke in landing Harden for another year-and-a-half, not to mention Chad Gaudin on top of it.  But this deal involves a whole pot and kettle worth of ‘ifs’.

No, I think the Cards made the prudent move by standing pat in the starting pitcher sweepstakes.  And I hope they continue that philosophy, even as “prognosticators” around the globe have them jumping in on the Erik Bedard and AJ Burnett trade rumors.  Why on Earth any self-conscious Cardinal fan would mutter the names of Bedard and Colby Rasmus in the same sentence is far beyond me.

So while I was pondering the Sabathia and Harden trades - and quietly wondering to myself if Wednesday would bring a Cardinal trade out of left field - I watched as the Birds went about their business.  With all of the hoopla on Tuesday surrounding the Harden deal, coupled with Sabathia’s first start as a Brewer, almost non-descript in comparison was the Redbirds’ ho-hum 2-0 victory over Philadelphia, currently in first place in the NL East this season.  All of the focus on two difference making pitchers joining two in-division rivals, and Joel Pineiro is out in Philadelphia outdueling Phillies ace Cole Hamels.  I say outduel carefully, because Pineiro certainly didn’t outpitch Hamels.  Hamels was for the most part brilliant, short of two pitches to Ryan Ludwick (please get hot Luddy) and Rick Ankiel (please STAY hot Ank).  But Hamels’ offense betrayed him, and Pineiro and his offense both did just enough to win.  Sabathia and his emotion-filled but otherwise relatively pedestrian first start, Harden and all of the trumpeting coming from Chicago about his impact, and little ole Pineiro blanking the Phils.  Guess who got all the headlines on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight?

But I digress…

I said this a bit in short last night, and I’ll say it again.  The Cardinals need only make a deal with the devil to keep up in this “arms race” in the NL Central.  Tell the man downstairs that you’ll send him some free Cards-Cubs NLCS tickets, and perhaps he will wave the healthy stick around the Cards’ always full disabled list.  Have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both come back fully healthy, and we’ll see how the rotations stack up.  I don’t know about you, but I’ll take my chances with a healthy Carpenter/Wainwright/Kyle Lohse versus Carlos Zambrano/Harden/Ryan Dempster or Sabathia/Ben Sheets/Manny Parra anyday.  Get Todd Wellemeyer healthy and back into early season form, and I’ll throw him versus any fourth starter from those teams.

The answer for the Cardinals is in rehabilitation.  The answer for the Cardinals is perserverance.  The answer for the Cardinals is to keep doing what they’ve been doing.  Don’t worry about the other teams, because they clearly haven’t affected the Cards’ performance to date.  Take precaution, get guys healthy, and stay within 5 games by the end of July, and we’re bound to see a great race to the finish.

Rain is over, tarp is off.  I’m off to watch the other rehab project for the Cards.  C’mon Mark Mulder, prove thousands of Cardinal fans wrong!

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