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UCB: Top 5 Cardinals Stories of 2008

As part of yet another great United Cardinal Bloggers project, I give you my top five stories of 2008 as pertains to the St Louis Cardinals.

1.  Lohse signs late, then signs early

Kyle Lohse was on the rader of GM John Mozeliak for most of the winter prior to the 2008 season.  Lohse was reportedly looking for a multi-year deal somewhere in the $10mm per season stratosphere.  When the dust settled in Spring Training and Lohse had yet to find his multi-year offer, he signed with the Cards for a one year $4.5mm deal.  That turned out to be a great thing for both the Cardinals and Lohse.  Kyle was arguably the Cards’ best pitcher in 2008 and he signed a big 4 year, $41mm extension late in the season.  Are the Cardinals kicking themselves now that the bottom has fallen out of the free agency market?  Only time will tell on this deal.

2.  “We got Glaus?  What’d we have to give up with Rolen?  Nothing?  Are you serious?”

Say what you want about Troy Glaus’ inconsistent hitting, his early season slump, etc.  Getting Glaus to play third base for disgruntled former Cardinal-for-life Scott Rolen was a small coup in my book.  Glaus - .270/27/99, .855 OPS.  Rolen - .262/10/55, .780 OPS.  Not convinced?  Glaus made 4 fewer errors in more chances, and had a higher range factor than Rolen.  Want more?  The Cards got $1.8m in cash from Toronto in the deal too.  Need another one?  Glaus’ contract expires after 2009, the Jays are on the hook for another $11mm season of Rolen in 2010.  Nice move, Mo.

3.  MVPujols

Another ho-hum .350+, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season for Albert Pujols.  El Hombre caught some flak for winning the award on a fourth place team while Ryan Howard was on a World Series winner, but who was truly more valuable to their team?  Pujols is quickly streaking toward being the Greatest Cardinal of All-Time (with all due respect to Mr. Stan Musial), yet somehow folks continue to be underwhelmed by his feats.  Case in point, my buddy (who happens to be a Cub fan, perhaps that’s the *real* issue) who muttered to me the other night: “so, you gotta be worried about Pujols after this year, huh?”  Me:  “uh, why would that be?”  “Well, you know, he didn’t really have a huge year…seems like he’s kind of slowing down?”  “He won the MVP.”  “Well, yeah, but he’s been *awesome* before.”  “What about .350, 35, and 120 isn’t *awesome*?”  I’ll spare you the rest of the dumbfounding conversation, but is Albert setting the bar for himself so high that folks are motivated to yawn at a .300/30/100 from him?  Gross.

4.  Youth beginning to serve at Busch

2008 marked the arrival, at one time or another, of eleven players on the Cardinal roster who had no prior Major League experience.  None.  Not a single at-bat or inning pitched.  Some did better than others, some spent more time up than others.  Some might never put on a big league shirt again (sorry, Rico Washington).  2009 promises to be more of the same, perhaps even some more full-time jobs being held down by youngsters as Chris Perez, Jason Motte and hopefully Colby Rasmus will all contribute.

5.  LaRussa’s (and perhaps Duncan’s, jointly) future in doubt

This one is kind of a 2008 carrying into 2009 story, but one worth mentioning.  Tony LaRussa signed a 2-year contract prior to the 2008 campaign that will carry him through the upcoming season.  Speculation is rampant that LaRussa is nearing the end of his managing career, that he is looking toward retirement in the near future.  There are no tell-tale signs from LaRussa as such, but rumors have long been flying about now that LaRussa might not be enjoying as much input on the roster as he once did with former GM Walt Jocketty.  There are those that believe LaRussa isn’t interested in any sort of rebuilding process (which the Cardinals can’t seem to firmly get into or out of).  Many others believe that LaRussa is too committed to using veteran players or role players to fill out his roster, rather than bring along youngsters - which the team has focused on under the control of Jeff Luhnow and Mozeliak.  What does this all mean?  You tell me.  All I know is that Cardinal fans could be in for a wake-up call once LaRussa is done.  Not necessarily a bad wake up call, not necessarily a good one.  Things will just be…different.  Pitching coach Dave Duncan may or may not follow LaRussa off into the sunset or wherever he heads.  Who would be a leading candidate to replace TLR?  Jose Oquendo?  Pop Warner?  Maybe Dunc himself?  Methinks this is bound to become a yearly watch, perhaps even a series of one-year contracts, until LaRussa decides to hang it up.  At the least, it seems very clear that the current ownership will give Tony a free pass as long as he wants it.

Agree or disagree?  I love to banter with you in the comments section.

Cheers to 2008, here’s looking forward to 2009!

UCB: Top 7 Prospects

I was asked to take part in a ‘United Cardinal Bloggers‘ project which tasked several of us Cardinal blog writers to list our top seven prospects in the organization.  That was the only instruction, there were no further restrictions.  As such, my list follows:

1.  OF Colby Rasmus - Obviously, any Cardinal prospect list has to start with Rasmus.  2008 was to be Colby’s first full year in triple-A ball, after a pretty impressive spring training with the big club.  Colby started slow at Memphis, as he’s prone to do when moving levels, and just before taking a place with Team USA in Beijing, Rasmus hurt his knee.  He rehabbed at the lower levels of the organization to finish off 2008.  Many are projecting Rasmus to be with the Cardinals in 2009, further complicating the outfield situation in St Louis.  Tony LaRussa’s recent rant about adding ‘impact players’ for next season has raised more speculation than ever that Rasmus may be dealt, but I don’t envision John Mozeliak making that move.  The Cards haven’t had such a highly touted youngster in my recent memory, and I just can’t see Mo shipping him away without just a ridiculous return in trade.

2.  3B(?) Brett Wallace - I really hope that the Cards give this guy a chance to stick at third base.  He’s been playing there for years, why is it all of a sudden incomprehensible that he could play third for many years going forward?  Yeah yeah, I know, Major League Baseball is a totally different game than college.  But figure that he played the hot corner at Arizona State with aluminum bats rapping baseballs his way, and he managed fine.  Anyway, soapbox aside, Wallace is a hitter.  Wherever he winds up fitting in on the field, the guy can rake.  He tore up pitchers in the Midwest League putting up .327/.418/.490 for Quad Cities.  He got a call to Springfield for their playoff push, and proceeded to do even better there at .367/.456/.653 in 49 at-bats.  Wallace could well be a defensive liability no matter where the Cardinals finally land him, but his bat should more than make up for that liability.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wallace start next season at Memphis, furthering the 3B logjam in the upper levels of the organization.

3.  C Bryan Anderson - Anderson has hit at every level he’s played.  His defense has always been his question mark.  A bit of a slump late in the season at Memphis dropped his average, but Anderson has been around .300 or better for his entire minor league career.  I give him a little extra boost for the purpose of this ranking, because Anderson right now is probably the Cards’ most marketable talent in the minor leagues, at a premium position nonetheless.  The Redbirds obviously have an entrenched incumbent at the catcher position in the big leagues, with Yadier Molina obviously having staked his claim, especially after a fantastic offensive campaign this year.  Would Yadi’s stranglehold on the position be weakened at all if LaRussa was no longer managing the club?  Doubtful, especially if he can continue to hit like he has in 2008, but it’s worth discussion.  I would love to see the Cards have Anderson apprentice a season as Molina’s backup before trading him, just to see what they really have in the kid - but I realize that if he were to struggle, his trade value drops.  Will be interesting to see if Anderson is still with the organization come spring.

4.  CL Chris Perez - Perez now has a few chinks in the armor, as he’s been roughed up recently.  His slider still needs work.  His control still needs work.  His fastball still gets up on hitters at 98 mph.  Given the opportunity, he will be a nasty closer for the Cardinals in 2009 and beyond.  I see Perez chiming in for 30+ saves for many seasons with the Birds.  Assuming that someone finally stops Dave Duncan’s reliever-to-starter conversion machine from taking over the world, envision a Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Perez back end of games for the next bunch of seasons.  I like the sound of that.

5.  OF Daryl Jones - Prior to this season, Jones surely would not have registered on a list like this.  Always a ‘tools guy’ who had never really put it together, Jones had a monster year between high-A Palm Beach and double-A Springfield.  This breakout season for Jones is helping to reinforce the organizational approach to the draft and minor leagues under the watch of Jeff Luhnow.  Drafting guys who are athletic and have a skill set that they hope can be coached into statistics hopefully will continue to pan out with guys like Jones and Pete Kozma (still holding out hope on that guy).

6.  SP Jaime Garcia - Tough break about Garcia’s elbow.  I have some growing concern about the prevalence of injuries to Cardinal pitcher arms, but that’s a topic for another time.  The ‘Tommy John Surgery’ procedure has come a long way, and it’s been said that a TJ can sometimes add velocity for a pitcher.  Again, not something you’d choose to go through just for that, but if it has to happen, might well look on the bright side of it?  Garcia was a leading candidate to pick up the fourth or fifth spot in the Cards rotation for next season.  He was probably rushed to the bigs this year as a necessity, but certainly could’ve been ready as a full-time guy next season.

7.  OF Jon Jay - Jay had a bit of a hiccup at the plate last season when he was promoted to Springfield, but impressed enough there this season to earn a call to Memphis where he showed even better.  The organization is seemingly deep at the outfield positions, so it should be interesting to see what happens personnel-wise in the next season or two - Mozeliak may be in a position to position-shift some of his better young talent.  Jay flashed more power this season than he had shown in previous seasons, perhaps at 23 growing his body into his talent.

Near misses:  3B David Freese, RP Jason Motte, SS Nico Vazquez

It sure is fun to be able to undertake a project like this and have something to write about.  I’m not sure I could’ve said the same a few years ago.  Thanks to C70 for the invite to take part in this gig, I look forward to future UCB projects.

Check out the other entries by following these links: C70 at the Bat, CardinalsGM, Future Redbirds, Get Up Baby, Mike On The Cards, The Redbird Blog, Redbird Ramblings, Rockin’ the Red, and Viva El Birdos.

The Cards and the Commandments of Sabermetrics

I’m sure a lot of you have seen this list before, but I just saw it yesterday for the first time, so I’m going to force it upon you again.

Now, obviously Sabermetrics is something not every baseball fan necessarily follows nor understands, but nevertheless, some of the basics ring true for basic baseball knowledge.  That being said, the list I am referring to (and posted below), is a Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics by the widely-acknowledged “father” of Sabermetrics, Bill James.

The Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics
By Bill James

1. Thou Shalt not Bunt.
2. Thou Shalt Have no Low On Base Percentages Before the Cleanup Hitter
3. Honor the three-run homer and the leadoff walk.
4. Thou shalt not steal at anything less than a 70% success rate.
5. Thou shalt make no idol of the light-hitting middle infielder.
6. Thou shalt not count to the credit of the pitcher that which is done by his fielders or by his hitters, nor charge him with their failings.
7. Thou shalt not abuse thy starting pitchers.
8. Thou shalt make no effort to ride the hot hand, for the hot hand is but a shape in the wind.
9. Place thy faith not in veterans, when youth be available to ye.
10. Thou shalt not pass freely thy opponent’s number eight hitter, nor his cleanup hitter, nor his left-handed pinch hitter, nor any hitter that is thy opponent’s.

Read that list once more, and let them all sink in.

Now let’s address this in the view of the Cardinals.

1. Well, not everyone believes in this, especially playing National League-style baseball.  Good luck trying to convince Tony LaRussa of this one.  Doesn’t necessarily apply.
2. For their part, the Cardinals are all over .371 OBP from lead-off to cleanup (with the exception of Brian Barton who has the second-most appearances in the lead-off spot this season - which I would’ve never guessed).  Not too shabby.
3. The Cardinals are still close to the MLB lead in walks and have taken 86 of them leading off an inning.  Pretty good ratio, from my admittedly amateur point of view.  The Cardinal starters have been good about not giving up a lot of walks, but the bullpen has been horrendous.  I wish I could break out how many of the leadoff walks issued by Cardinal pitchers was by the bullpen.  The Cardinals have 13 three-run homers this season out of a total of 133.  Conversely, the pitchers have surrendered 12 three-run shots of a total of 126 allowed.  Not too bad comparatively.
4. The Redbirds are 56 of 78 this season, good for 71.7%.  An acceptable percentage, but lots of folks (read: the author) would like to see them run more, situationally.
5. This one is what really got me thinking about this list and how it pertains to the Cardinals.  Let’s go through the litany of players rotated through the St Louis middle infield in recent years.  Aaron Miles, David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan, Miguel Cairo, Felipe Lopez, Hector Luna, and on and on.  You could go back many years to find a middle infielder with much pop.  Edgar Renteria is the closest in recent history that I can think of.
6. This one really hasn’t applied to the Cardinals until the last week or so as fielding goes, as their defense has been pretty impressive team-wise, a good reason for their success to date.  You could argue that the offense has had its share of unimpressive performances, leading to undue losses for the pitching staff - but I might extend this commandment a bit further to include not faulting the starting pitchers who have been victimized by the bullpen allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate.
7. LaRussa and Duncan have a minor tendency to push starting pitchers beyond their limits and not pull them at signs of distress and trouble getting hitters out.  In their defense, it is hard to justify pulling  a starter who has cruised through six innings only to go to questionable arms (and mental states) in the bullpen.  To look at this a different way, you could argue that the pitchers have been abused by the consistent letdowns of the bullpen, costing them wins.  The Cards’ ‘pen has 25 losses on the season, exacerbated by 27 blown saves, the most in MLB.
8. Tony and his merry band of Redbirds would never be accused of riding a hot hand.  It took almost two months before Ryan Ludwick could find himself a regular spot in the lineup, and all he’s done is put up MVP-quality numbers this season.
9. This appears to be the biggest Cardinal sin (yuk yuk) committed this season (well, and who am I kidding, every other season in LaRussa’s tenure).  The same bullpen retreads are run out every night while youngsters like Chris Perez are “forced to earn their keep” or “made to earn their job” while guys like Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Franklin seemingly can’t do anything horrible enough to lose theirs.  Jason Motte has been filthy on the mound at triple-A Memphis this season, but can’t get a sniff with the big club, despite the massive amounts of shuffling being done this year.  Meanwhile, Kelvin Jimenez continues to get call-ups.  There appears to be a real rift in the organization between what the front office of John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow are trying to accomplish and what Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan want to trot out on the field every night.  Anthony Reyes pitched brilliantly for Cleveland the other night, was anyone surprised?  They allowed him to pitch how he was comfortable pitching and he had a great outing.  It will be interesting to see where this team goes next season as more youth is developed and more of the stopgap veteran players depart.  It will be perhaps even more interesting seeing what LaRussa does following next year, when is contract comes due again.
10. This one kind of follows with number one - I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would buy into this philosophy - especially if they had to face Albert Pujols at any point.  Of course, this also takes on special meaning when applied to a team facing the Cardinals, because as we all know - Pitchers Hit Eighth.

What does all this mean?  Eh, virtually nothing, other than I found the list interesting and thought I could throw together some entertaining comparisons and ideas as they apply to the Cardinals.

How would you apply these axioms of Sabermetrics to the hometown club?  Leave a note below…

Draft day 2008

I’m admittedly a bit behind on the particulars of this draft and who the Cards are looking at, but thankfully some of my fellow writers are all over it and I’ll shamelessly link all of their info here:

• Future Redbirds has been all over the draft - it’s their business - and are speculating on the news yesterday that Jeff Luhnow has a handful of guys on his board for the 13th pick.

• FR has also put together a big ‘ole list (and odds of them being available) of the players they feel like could be available at the Cards’ 13th pick.

• Derrick Goold posts a history of sorts of the 13th pick in the draft, and the Cardinals’ luck (or lack of) at that slot. It would be HORRIBLE if Luhnow wound up with a Manny Ramirez at that pick today.

• Finally, Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors has a run-down of the entire draft, and will be live-posting during the draft.

EDITS:

• Viva El Birdos conducted an informal poll of its readers to see who the Cardinals should, and who the would, take at pick 13.

• Future Redbirds has added more: Now thinks Gordon Beckham is Luhnow’s ‘backflip’ guy. Christian Friedrich keeps getting thrown around as if he might be the guy.

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