Who is left in free agency?

Now that Tony LaRussa’s self-proclaimed primary focus in the free agent market has signed on for several millions with the Los Angeles of Anaheim, Orange County, California, USA Angels - where do the Cardinals turn next?

The Cardinals have, at least in the opinion of this humble scribe, several holes yet to fill as they emerge from the bitter cold of winter.  Let’s take a look at some of the remaining names on the market and see who might pique the interest of Mr. Mo.

Using ESPN.com’s list of remaining free agents, in their (albeit subjective) ranked order - we find that there are 64 of the top 100 free agents still unsigned.  Two, (Mike Mussina and Greg Maddux, have announced their retirement.  Inexplicably, players 22, 25, and 42 in their rankings are not listed.  So who’s left?

10.  SP Oliver Perez

Rumors have indicated Perez is looking to get a contract that is just ludicrous, something like 3 years, $50mm if I recall correctly.  If and when he ever comes off of that cloud, I’d hope Mo would take a look.  You’ll notice a distinct pattern in my list below, there are a lot of starting pitchers.

12.  2B Orlando Hudson

Hudson figured to be a top target of many teams heading into this winter.  The ice-cold market has changed everything.  While the O-Dog may have been sniffing around the $10mm per level at the end of the 2008 season, now I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off the table for around $6mm per.  Obviously there’s the Adam Kennedy situation to deal with, but if this guy got into “too cheap to pass up” territory, I’d hope they give him a call.

20.  RP Brandon Lyon

Lyon is one of the few remaining relievers in the market with closing experience.  He posted 26 saves for Arizona last year, and might be persuaded to come on the 2 year or less contract that the Cardinals are insisting on.

23. SP Ben Sheets

Another guy who originally seemed to be out of the Cards’ reach, suddenly the market on Sheets is coming back to them, especially if reports that they were willing to go to around $10mm per on Brian Fuentes is true.  There are certainly some concerns about Sheets’ past health issues.

24. SP Randy Wolf

I’ve been stumping for a Wolf signing for a while.  Same as Sheets, it would seem as if Fuentes signing with the Angels leaves the Cards with a war chest to spend on something else.  Here’s hoping it’s starting pitching.

26.  SP Andy Pettitte

Pettitte seems almost destined to return to the Yankees, but surely he’d at least listen to offers elsewhere, right?  Pettitte still figures to be looking at a $10mm per salary, and that might push him out of the Cards’ range if they hope to fill other holes as well.  Pettitte is no spring chicken either.

36.  SP Jon Garland

All Garland does is take the ball every fifth day.  Garland has averaged over 200 innings pitched per season for the last seven seasons.  I’m fairly certain I’m not the only one who thinks the Cards could use a guy like that.

38.  SP Paul Byrd

Not much to say about Byrd here, other than he is a starting pitcher that is better than other options the Cardinals have (probably including Joel Pineiro who is currently holding a spot by default).

43.  SP Braden Looper

Has the ship sailed on this one?  Looper presents an interesting option, having both starting and bullpen experience.  Looper has expressed his desire to remain in a rotation, but in a pinch, would he setup or close games if the Cardinals asked him?  Likely looking for a three year deal, which again, might not be in the Cards’ plans.

51.  RP Will Ohman

Low on the ESPN list, but very high on my wish list for the Cardinals.  With Fuentes now in the rearview, the Cardinals would do well to lock up Ohman as a top-notch lefty out of the bullpen.  It was, and largely still is, one of the Cardinals’ most glaring weaknesses in 2008.

52.  SP/RP John Smoltz

Another guy like Looper who can provide maximum versatility and slot into multiple roles.  Hard to believe that it has been four seasons since Smoltz closed games for the Braves, but one would think he could slot back into that role pretty easily.  Cards could theoretically get him on a short-term contract, but what sort of dollars?

62.  RP Dennys Reyes

If Reyes could put up another season with an ERA under his weight**, he would represent an improvement for the Cardinal bullpen.

** Assuming he hasn’t gotten too deep into the Krispy Kreme’s this off-season.

67.  2B Ray Durham

Durham would likely have to accept a role as a backup, at least at the time of signing.  Could be worth it to handcuff Kennedy?

72.  RP Joe Beimel

Another left-handed relief specialist, Beimel makes the list because I’m not sold on Trever Miller, Charlie Manning, or the health of Tyler Johnson’s elbow.

73.  RP Trevor Hoffman

Another guy I jumped on the bandwagon with as soon as he became available.  If the Cardinals are looking for someone to bridge the gap to Chris Perez and/or Jason Motte, who better than one of the better closers of all time?  The kids could theoretically learn a lot from Hoffman, and he might well come cheaper than $5mm.

80.  SS Omar Vizquel

Would Omar accept a job as a backup in the twilight of his career?  Vizquel would be a valuable defensive tool in a LaRussa style musical chairs lineup, whether getting spot starts or coming into the late innings with a lead.

82.  2B/SS David Eckstein

Another guy where I don’t know if the ship has sailed?  Would Eckstein return to the Cardinals after they let him go?  Eckstein could be the new Aaron Miles, but obviously would depend on cost.  I don’t think there’s a need to spend a big pile of money to replace Miles.

88.  2B Mark Grudzielanek

See Eckstein above.  Many (myself included) would argue the Cardinals should’ve never let Grudz go to the Royals the first time around.

90.  SP Curt Schilling

Now, obviously Schilling is trying to come back from some health issues, and probably represents another pitcher that the Cardinals have steadfastly stayed far away from this off-season, but you may remember Curt’s post at his personal blog indicating a couple seasons ago that he would pitch for St Louis if the circumstances dictated.  I’m just saying it’s an option.

There you have it.  Obviously I’m just spouting off here, but the Cardinals have specific holes and there are players on this list to fill those holes.  Will they spend ANY money on free agency anymore?  Are there trades in the works that Mozeliak is keeping to himself?  Let’s hope the ice cracks soon…

Who’s on your list?

UCB: Top 5 Cardinals Stories of 2008

As part of yet another great United Cardinal Bloggers project, I give you my top five stories of 2008 as pertains to the St Louis Cardinals.

1.  Lohse signs late, then signs early

Kyle Lohse was on the rader of GM John Mozeliak for most of the winter prior to the 2008 season.  Lohse was reportedly looking for a multi-year deal somewhere in the $10mm per season stratosphere.  When the dust settled in Spring Training and Lohse had yet to find his multi-year offer, he signed with the Cards for a one year $4.5mm deal.  That turned out to be a great thing for both the Cardinals and Lohse.  Kyle was arguably the Cards’ best pitcher in 2008 and he signed a big 4 year, $41mm extension late in the season.  Are the Cardinals kicking themselves now that the bottom has fallen out of the free agency market?  Only time will tell on this deal.

2.  “We got Glaus?  What’d we have to give up with Rolen?  Nothing?  Are you serious?”

Say what you want about Troy Glaus’ inconsistent hitting, his early season slump, etc.  Getting Glaus to play third base for disgruntled former Cardinal-for-life Scott Rolen was a small coup in my book.  Glaus - .270/27/99, .855 OPS.  Rolen - .262/10/55, .780 OPS.  Not convinced?  Glaus made 4 fewer errors in more chances, and had a higher range factor than Rolen.  Want more?  The Cards got $1.8m in cash from Toronto in the deal too.  Need another one?  Glaus’ contract expires after 2009, the Jays are on the hook for another $11mm season of Rolen in 2010.  Nice move, Mo.

3.  MVPujols

Another ho-hum .350+, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season for Albert Pujols.  El Hombre caught some flak for winning the award on a fourth place team while Ryan Howard was on a World Series winner, but who was truly more valuable to their team?  Pujols is quickly streaking toward being the Greatest Cardinal of All-Time (with all due respect to Mr. Stan Musial), yet somehow folks continue to be underwhelmed by his feats.  Case in point, my buddy (who happens to be a Cub fan, perhaps that’s the *real* issue) who muttered to me the other night: “so, you gotta be worried about Pujols after this year, huh?”  Me:  “uh, why would that be?”  “Well, you know, he didn’t really have a huge year…seems like he’s kind of slowing down?”  “He won the MVP.”  “Well, yeah, but he’s been *awesome* before.”  “What about .350, 35, and 120 isn’t *awesome*?”  I’ll spare you the rest of the dumbfounding conversation, but is Albert setting the bar for himself so high that folks are motivated to yawn at a .300/30/100 from him?  Gross.

4.  Youth beginning to serve at Busch

2008 marked the arrival, at one time or another, of eleven players on the Cardinal roster who had no prior Major League experience.  None.  Not a single at-bat or inning pitched.  Some did better than others, some spent more time up than others.  Some might never put on a big league shirt again (sorry, Rico Washington).  2009 promises to be more of the same, perhaps even some more full-time jobs being held down by youngsters as Chris Perez, Jason Motte and hopefully Colby Rasmus will all contribute.

5.  LaRussa’s (and perhaps Duncan’s, jointly) future in doubt

This one is kind of a 2008 carrying into 2009 story, but one worth mentioning.  Tony LaRussa signed a 2-year contract prior to the 2008 campaign that will carry him through the upcoming season.  Speculation is rampant that LaRussa is nearing the end of his managing career, that he is looking toward retirement in the near future.  There are no tell-tale signs from LaRussa as such, but rumors have long been flying about now that LaRussa might not be enjoying as much input on the roster as he once did with former GM Walt Jocketty.  There are those that believe LaRussa isn’t interested in any sort of rebuilding process (which the Cardinals can’t seem to firmly get into or out of).  Many others believe that LaRussa is too committed to using veteran players or role players to fill out his roster, rather than bring along youngsters - which the team has focused on under the control of Jeff Luhnow and Mozeliak.  What does this all mean?  You tell me.  All I know is that Cardinal fans could be in for a wake-up call once LaRussa is done.  Not necessarily a bad wake up call, not necessarily a good one.  Things will just be…different.  Pitching coach Dave Duncan may or may not follow LaRussa off into the sunset or wherever he heads.  Who would be a leading candidate to replace TLR?  Jose Oquendo?  Pop Warner?  Maybe Dunc himself?  Methinks this is bound to become a yearly watch, perhaps even a series of one-year contracts, until LaRussa decides to hang it up.  At the least, it seems very clear that the current ownership will give Tony a free pass as long as he wants it.

Agree or disagree?  I love to banter with you in the comments section.

Cheers to 2008, here’s looking forward to 2009!

Pitching - How do we stack up

Always hard to follow along with all the moves, so I’m hoping this gives an indication of where the Cardinals pitching is at within the central division.

I’m going to use the depth charts at mlb.com as the reference. They are fairly up to date as they show Greene at SS already.

Cardinals -

SP: Wainright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Piniero, Garcia, Carpenter, McClellan

Pen: Perez, McCLellan, T. Johnson, Kinney, Thompson, Carpenter,  Motte, (Miller), Ring

Cubs -

SP: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, Marquis

Pen: Marmol, Wuertz, Hart, Wells, Fox, Cox, Gaudin, Marshall, Samardzija, Guzman, Luis Vizcaino

Brewers -

SP: Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Bush, Capuano, McClung

Pen: Riske, Villanueva, Julio, Coffey, Stettar, Dillard, DiFelice

Astros -

SP: Oswalt, Rodriguez, Backe, Hampton, Moehler

Pen: Valverde, Geary, Hawkins, Brocail, Wright, Byrdak, Sampson, Arias

Reds -

SP: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Owings, Bailey

Pen: Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Linclon, Bray, Majewski, Masset, Ramirez, Roenicke, Herrera

Pirates -

SP: Maholm, Snell, Ohlendorf, Gorzelanny, Duke, Karstens, Dumatrait

Pen: Capps, Grabow, Yates, Bautista, Burnett, Beam, Chavez, Hansen, Sanchez

I’ll have to admit that I don’t know all of the pitchers listed in the bullpen for teams other than the Cardinals.  So far what strikes me is that the Cardinals don’t have a 5th starter.  Some say that will be McClellan, but that takes quite a bite out of the bullpen. Carpenter in the pen is a red flag as well. Can you really count on Carpenter pitching at all, or will it be another year trying to force him in somewhere? Could he maybe become the closer similar to Smoltz?  If Carpenter can pitch effectively out of the pen or if he could enter the rotation, then things look much brighter for Cardinal pitching.  For some reason Trever Miller wasn’t shown, so I added him in. Maybe it is still to early to try this as a few players like Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores, might not even be offered contracts. Probably safe to say with Miller signing for 1 year that Flores is out at least.  The bullpen is looking pretty inexperienced without Franklin and Springer and Villone in there.

Looking at the Cubs, even without Peavy they have a solid rotation, not losing any starters from last year. They also still have Rich Hill lingering in the minors somewhere hoping to regain his spot. Marquis is the man on the outs, but he doesn’t make a bad 5th starter even if they don’t move him. Could also use Gaudin as the 5th starter if Hill doesn’t come through or they don’t sign another pitcher.  There are always injury concerns with Harden and even BigZ starting showing signs of wear last year. I guess maybe Marshall could even start. Bullpen looks good but obviously would look much stronger with an established closer. Losing Kerry Wood seems to put Marmol in the closer role and maybe Smardzija in as the 8th inning guy, but Marmol was so good in that role and who really knows if he can handle full time closer duties.

The Brewers sans Sheets just doesn’t look like the same rotation at all, not to mention the one that also had CC on it!  Riske is the perfect name for this guy as a possible closer and Julio has not had sustained success. I have always thought Coffey had good potential, but has to stay healthy and show what he has. Parra, Gallardo, Capuano, Bush all have good cases to make as starters, but certainly not Sheets or CC.

Get past Oswalt on Houston and again you really don’t know what you have. Wandy Rodriguez has shown flashes and Hampton looks to rebound, but doubtful he’ll ever be the same pitcher that commanded the huge contract. The pen looks very strong with Valverde closing (assuming he doesn’t melt down at some point during the season) and a number of really good set up guys. I kind of expect that Sampson winds up starting at some point.

The Reds starting pitching will go the way of Harang and Arroyo. Having to pitch half the games at home isn’t going to help their confidence.  Volquez is obviously a stud and Cueto should continue to improve. Owings should at least contribute in the hitting department but has been very inconsistent. I followed him in the minors and the reports were that he was a good pitcher but lacked a true strikeout pitch. Homer Bailey was thought to be the next stud several years ago, but has really regressed since then. The bullpen looks real solid although Cordero as closer doesn’t excite me too much. I also don’t like seeing Lincoln on the Reds since the Cards really never got anything out of him when he was here except for a brief flash that he was good.  He did have some rough stretches last year but a year of conditioning should get him back on track. Bray is a lefty that I like as well and Burton is also solid. The Reds pitching could be tough, but still several lingering questions to answer.

About all I can say about the Pirates is that I like their closer Capps. Used to think highly of some of the starters but the shine has dulled considerably on them.

From a pitching standpoint it wouldn’t take the Cardinals much to get right up there with the Cubs. Add an Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny type and a closer, maybe Fuentes or trade for Saito or Jenks possibly and thinks look pretty sweet. Add a lesser pitcher like a Wolf or resign Looper and no closer and it still isn’t terrible, but will take a lot more work from the hitting to have a winning season.  I’m still not ruling out an Izzy return either.

I’m sure I’m missing some pitchers, but just wanted to get down what I could for now and see how things were shaping up.

Catching up with the Cardinals’ off-season

So I’ve been biding my time, waiting, watching, allowing the news to come to me. As I’m sure my loyal readers know (all three of you), it’s been eerily quiet.

Let’s catch up with the goings on…

UCB: Top 7 Prospects

I was asked to take part in a ‘United Cardinal Bloggers‘ project which tasked several of us Cardinal blog writers to list our top seven prospects in the organization.  That was the only instruction, there were no further restrictions.  As such, my list follows:

1.  OF Colby Rasmus - Obviously, any Cardinal prospect list has to start with Rasmus.  2008 was to be Colby’s first full year in triple-A ball, after a pretty impressive spring training with the big club.  Colby started slow at Memphis, as he’s prone to do when moving levels, and just before taking a place with Team USA in Beijing, Rasmus hurt his knee.  He rehabbed at the lower levels of the organization to finish off 2008.  Many are projecting Rasmus to be with the Cardinals in 2009, further complicating the outfield situation in St Louis.  Tony LaRussa’s recent rant about adding ‘impact players’ for next season has raised more speculation than ever that Rasmus may be dealt, but I don’t envision John Mozeliak making that move.  The Cards haven’t had such a highly touted youngster in my recent memory, and I just can’t see Mo shipping him away without just a ridiculous return in trade.

2.  3B(?) Brett Wallace - I really hope that the Cards give this guy a chance to stick at third base.  He’s been playing there for years, why is it all of a sudden incomprehensible that he could play third for many years going forward?  Yeah yeah, I know, Major League Baseball is a totally different game than college.  But figure that he played the hot corner at Arizona State with aluminum bats rapping baseballs his way, and he managed fine.  Anyway, soapbox aside, Wallace is a hitter.  Wherever he winds up fitting in on the field, the guy can rake.  He tore up pitchers in the Midwest League putting up .327/.418/.490 for Quad Cities.  He got a call to Springfield for their playoff push, and proceeded to do even better there at .367/.456/.653 in 49 at-bats.  Wallace could well be a defensive liability no matter where the Cardinals finally land him, but his bat should more than make up for that liability.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wallace start next season at Memphis, furthering the 3B logjam in the upper levels of the organization.

3.  C Bryan Anderson - Anderson has hit at every level he’s played.  His defense has always been his question mark.  A bit of a slump late in the season at Memphis dropped his average, but Anderson has been around .300 or better for his entire minor league career.  I give him a little extra boost for the purpose of this ranking, because Anderson right now is probably the Cards’ most marketable talent in the minor leagues, at a premium position nonetheless.  The Redbirds obviously have an entrenched incumbent at the catcher position in the big leagues, with Yadier Molina obviously having staked his claim, especially after a fantastic offensive campaign this year.  Would Yadi’s stranglehold on the position be weakened at all if LaRussa was no longer managing the club?  Doubtful, especially if he can continue to hit like he has in 2008, but it’s worth discussion.  I would love to see the Cards have Anderson apprentice a season as Molina’s backup before trading him, just to see what they really have in the kid - but I realize that if he were to struggle, his trade value drops.  Will be interesting to see if Anderson is still with the organization come spring.

4.  CL Chris Perez - Perez now has a few chinks in the armor, as he’s been roughed up recently.  His slider still needs work.  His control still needs work.  His fastball still gets up on hitters at 98 mph.  Given the opportunity, he will be a nasty closer for the Cardinals in 2009 and beyond.  I see Perez chiming in for 30+ saves for many seasons with the Birds.  Assuming that someone finally stops Dave Duncan’s reliever-to-starter conversion machine from taking over the world, envision a Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Perez back end of games for the next bunch of seasons.  I like the sound of that.

5.  OF Daryl Jones - Prior to this season, Jones surely would not have registered on a list like this.  Always a ‘tools guy’ who had never really put it together, Jones had a monster year between high-A Palm Beach and double-A Springfield.  This breakout season for Jones is helping to reinforce the organizational approach to the draft and minor leagues under the watch of Jeff Luhnow.  Drafting guys who are athletic and have a skill set that they hope can be coached into statistics hopefully will continue to pan out with guys like Jones and Pete Kozma (still holding out hope on that guy).

6.  SP Jaime Garcia - Tough break about Garcia’s elbow.  I have some growing concern about the prevalence of injuries to Cardinal pitcher arms, but that’s a topic for another time.  The ‘Tommy John Surgery’ procedure has come a long way, and it’s been said that a TJ can sometimes add velocity for a pitcher.  Again, not something you’d choose to go through just for that, but if it has to happen, might well look on the bright side of it?  Garcia was a leading candidate to pick up the fourth or fifth spot in the Cards rotation for next season.  He was probably rushed to the bigs this year as a necessity, but certainly could’ve been ready as a full-time guy next season.

7.  OF Jon Jay - Jay had a bit of a hiccup at the plate last season when he was promoted to Springfield, but impressed enough there this season to earn a call to Memphis where he showed even better.  The organization is seemingly deep at the outfield positions, so it should be interesting to see what happens personnel-wise in the next season or two - Mozeliak may be in a position to position-shift some of his better young talent.  Jay flashed more power this season than he had shown in previous seasons, perhaps at 23 growing his body into his talent.

Near misses:  3B David Freese, RP Jason Motte, SS Nico Vazquez

It sure is fun to be able to undertake a project like this and have something to write about.  I’m not sure I could’ve said the same a few years ago.  Thanks to C70 for the invite to take part in this gig, I look forward to future UCB projects.

Check out the other entries by following these links: C70 at the Bat, CardinalsGM, Future Redbirds, Get Up Baby, Mike On The Cards, The Redbird Blog, Redbird Ramblings, Rockin’ the Red, and Viva El Birdos.

Yes, Houston, we copy. We just lost the Wild Card.

Well, that’s really where it all began, isn’t it?

I apologize for my longer than anticipated absence, and in some ways, I’m not that sorry.  I barely got to see any Cardinal baseball while I’ve been on ‘hiatus’, and that’s seemingly been a good thing.  I hate to go down the path of pessimist, but it’s high time to face the music.

If only managing three of five from Atlanta and Pittsburgh didn’t do it…

If only managing a split with Milwaukee didn’t do it…

Then a sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros surely did this Cardinal post-season drive in.

As if that weren’t enough, the Cardinals wind up dropping two games to the D’Backs (I hate their jerseys and logos by the way) that they should’ve won.

The bullpen has reared its ugly head again.  Kyle McClellan has continued to impress and confound in equal and opposite amounts as the season drags on.  Rumors still abound that he should arrive at Spring Training 2009 prepared to take on a starting rotation spot.  And what if he fails?  Then will he be shuttled back to the bullpen, completely unprepared for a role that he should remain in?  Sounds eerily familiar for this organization.

Chris Perez suffered his first major failure tonight since taking over the ‘ninth inning pitcher’ role (he’s clearly still not the closer).  How will this leave the youngster’s standing in the mind of manager Tony LaRussa?  Tony’s obviously been prone to leaving guys to work their own issues out on the mound this season, but he’s also shown a real proclivity not to trust young pitchers in virtually any situation.  Will Perez be afforded the opportunity to learn on the job, and have the same ups-and-downs as his predecessors?

Rick Ankiel is still struggling with his oblique injury.  Why the team refuses to shut this guy down, I will never know.  This situation is dragging on eerily similar to Chris Duncan’s sports hernia last year.  We all know how that turned out.  Why not shut Ankiel down now, give him an extra month of off-season, and allow him to return to camp next season fully rested?  It’s not as if he’s playing full-time now, with the injury, so what’s the harm in shutting him down now?

Jaime Garcia’s elbow injury is seemingly going to make way for a more wide-open fifth starter competition next season.  Garcia is likely headed for a TJ, hopefully sooner than later.  His mechanics have kind of forecasted this type of injury to come, and naturally, the Cardinal staff did nothing about it.

Have I covered all of the negative issues this week?  Nope…

Chris Carpenter is returning to the big club as a reliever.  JUST SHUT HIM DOWN.  Do it.  It’s clear by the shoulder strain, by the front office’s “management” of the situation, and by Carp’s own reaction to being sent to the bullpen (he didn’t seem too happy about it) that he is not yet right.  Same deal as with Ankiel in my mind.  If Carp is not ready to be a starter (which the Cardinals are paying him handsomely to do), then he should be in rehab or on the shelf until he is ready to do so.  If that means he’s not back until Opening Day 2009, then so be it.  It is not worth the Cardinals’ entire investment in this guy to see him reinjure an elbow or shoulder throwing as hard as he can out of the ‘pen the rest of this season.

Finally, I don’t think the Brewers/Phillies/Mets can lose enough between now and the end of the season for the Cards to sneak in anymore.  I’d love to be proved wrong.

There.  I’ve said my pieces about the last few days/week.

Congrats to Jason Motte on a successful debut against Arizona.  Here’s hoping that the Motte-Perez combo is one we can enjoy for some time.

John Mozeliak dishes the dirt

Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak conducted a live chat via STLToday.com on Wednesday (it was apparently the second such appearance he’s made over there).

I just saw it for the first time yesterday, and I have to say that I was surprised.  Not by the typical Cardinal organization ‘non-answer/generalizations’ like this one:

Jason Winders: Greetings, JM. After watching the Cardinals’ big league talent slide every year since the final out of the 2004 World Series, I gotta ask what it will be this off season: “Market gone crazy” or “Keeping our powder dry” for that trade deadline 2009 pickup?

Be straight with us, JM, we won’t hate you.

But the fans are growing tired of these lines. Why does the Cardinals front office/ownership refuse to play it straight with fans regarding everything from injures to trades? We’re suckers, we’ll still buy tickets.

John Mozeliak: My hope is that I am straight with all of you (but specifically YOU) now saying that I look at this off-season as an opportunity to build on this year, we will have a stronger rotation and and our outfield will have a full year of experience. I do think we need to look for more offense from the middle infield and also add left-handed to strengthen our pen.

But if I fail to deliever it was not from being straight or candid…it was from not getting a deal done.

Now, I’m not completely naive - I know that he surely can’t dish out the Cards’ blueprint for the off-season, but I thought the question about being dodgy with injury reports, etc was a valid one, even if the seeming non-response was expected.

All of that aside, lots of Mo’s responses caught my eye.  At the risk of duplication, here are a few:

Steve Earp: Mr. Mo, who can we expect to see showcased from our increasingly, majestic farm system come September? Will you offer Cards fans a taste of the future with Rasmus, Wallace, Anderson, D. Jones, Freese, Barden, Greene, et al? BTW, thanks for being disciplined at the deadline.

John Mozeliak: I have a meeting scheduled for Friday to determine who we think deserves the call-ups. I have laid out certian criteria that I feel needs to be met before we begin the promotion process. I do think we will benefit from the expanded rosters. At this point I will wait until everyone has had a chance to weigh in before making any public annoucement. Our young players have had a strong year and that is good news for Cardinal fans.

Not terribly shocking, but refreshing to know that Cardinal management is on the same page with a lot of fans.  They have forty slots available come September 1.  I would hope that we will see, at the very least: Colby Rasmus, Brian Barden, and Jason Motte.  This is not to mention the guys who have already flip-flopped this season like Nick Stavinoha, Mark Worrell, Mitchell Boggs, and Brendan Ryan.  Hell, we may even see guys like Kelvin Jimenez and Josh Phelps get some love.

This one is interesting for a couple of reasons:

BDAx2: Mr. Mozaliak,

Thank you for doing these chats..it obviously goes above and beyond your duties.

3 REALLY quick questions

1. Where do you realistically envision Colby Rasmus April 1, 2009?
2. Assume Carp and Waino healthy to start 2009, do you see a need to try and go outside the organization to add to the major league starting rotation in the offseason?
3. Do you see the SS position as a position where you are willing to accept below league average offense in exhcange for above league average defense?

John Mozeliak: 1. Rasmus will likely find himself competing for a major league job next spring, where he starts will be based on how he performs.
2. Looking at our ‘09 rotation of Carp, Waino, Wellemeyer, and Pineiro it would make sense to add another arm. I do like what we have seen from Boggs but I do not want to rush him if we do not have to.
3. I would prefer above average offense and above average defense…that is much more desirable.

I’m glad to see the response to the first question.  Rasmus should get a shot, and I suspect he’ll wind up on the roster as the team heads north next spring.  Answer two is kind of another ‘duh’ answer - “we’ll add a pitcher if we see fit” - thanks for the insight.  And number three was another ‘duh’.  Great Mo, Cards fans would love to see that too, except there are only about three of those playing professional baseball right now.  Ok, so maybe only one of those answers was interesting for a good reason.

Finally, this was the one that spurred me to write this post.  This answer speaks volumes, in this scribe’s humble opinion:

Steve: Have you announced who will be replacing Izzy on the roster yet??

John Mozeliak: We have not made a roster as of today and with the off tomorrow it will likely wait until Friday.
Izzy had a great career with the Cardinals, he cared and wanted to compete at a high level. It is a disappointing ending but if he decides to pitch again, I only wish him the best.

Jason Isringhausen *had* a great career with the Cardinals?  I’m not saying I disagree, or that I’m upset at the implication that statement makes, but *had*?  That’s a major league slip of the tongue at this stage of the season and shortly after his injury, don’t you think Mo?  Especially with your manager apparently stumping for Izzy to rehab and pitch again next season?  You’re wishing him the best *if* he decides to pitch again, and wishing him the best?  Sounds like Mo has turned the page…

I’m not saying that Mo is wrong.  I suspect the Cardinal chapter has ended for Izzy’s career, regardless of whether his career has ended or not.  But it strikes me as unorthodox to make that statement now, with the guy, one who had a lot better career wearing the Birds-on-the-Bat than most fans will remember, perhaps riding off into the sunset.  It’s important for Cardinals fans to remember the good Izzy, the one who was dominant from 2002-2005.  Not the injury-plagued struggle it was for Izzy to even pitch, much less succeed in the last two or three seasons.

One way or another, this organization is clearly poised to move on with young players coming up through the system.  The self-sustaining program is likely going to be a must for the Cardinal organization going forward, and they have a great start on it.  I think it’s important though, not to forget those who have gotten the franchise to such an elite status in the Major League Baseball annals.  Let’s celebrate the Izzy’s of this team’s last decade.

Cheers Izzy - I hope you do pitch again.

The Cards and the Commandments of Sabermetrics

I’m sure a lot of you have seen this list before, but I just saw it yesterday for the first time, so I’m going to force it upon you again.

Now, obviously Sabermetrics is something not every baseball fan necessarily follows nor understands, but nevertheless, some of the basics ring true for basic baseball knowledge.  That being said, the list I am referring to (and posted below), is a Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics by the widely-acknowledged “father” of Sabermetrics, Bill James.

The Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics
By Bill James

1. Thou Shalt not Bunt.
2. Thou Shalt Have no Low On Base Percentages Before the Cleanup Hitter
3. Honor the three-run homer and the leadoff walk.
4. Thou shalt not steal at anything less than a 70% success rate.
5. Thou shalt make no idol of the light-hitting middle infielder.
6. Thou shalt not count to the credit of the pitcher that which is done by his fielders or by his hitters, nor charge him with their failings.
7. Thou shalt not abuse thy starting pitchers.
8. Thou shalt make no effort to ride the hot hand, for the hot hand is but a shape in the wind.
9. Place thy faith not in veterans, when youth be available to ye.
10. Thou shalt not pass freely thy opponent’s number eight hitter, nor his cleanup hitter, nor his left-handed pinch hitter, nor any hitter that is thy opponent’s.

Read that list once more, and let them all sink in.

Now let’s address this in the view of the Cardinals.

  1. Well, not everyone believes in this, especially playing National League-style baseball.  Good luck trying to convince Tony LaRussa of this one.  Doesn’t necessarily apply.
  2. For their part, the Cardinals are all over .371 OBP from lead-off to cleanup (with the exception of Brian Barton who has the second-most appearances in the lead-off spot this season - which I would’ve never guessed).  Not too shabby.
  3. The Cardinals are still close to the MLB lead in walks and have taken 86 of them leading off an inning.  Pretty good ratio, from my admittedly amateur point of view.  The Cardinal starters have been good about not giving up a lot of walks, but the bullpen has been horrendous.  I wish I could break out how many of the leadoff walks issued by Cardinal pitchers was by the bullpen.  The Cardinals have 13 three-run homers this season out of a total of 133.  Conversely, the pitchers have surrendered 12 three-run shots of a total of 126 allowed.  Not too bad comparatively.
  4. The Redbirds are 56 of 78 this season, good for 71.7%.  An acceptable percentage, but lots of folks (read: the author) would like to see them run more, situationally.
  5. This one is what really got me thinking about this list and how it pertains to the Cardinals.  Let’s go through the litany of players rotated through the St Louis middle infield in recent years.  Aaron Miles, David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan, Miguel Cairo, Felipe Lopez, Hector Luna, and on and on.  You could go back many years to find a middle infielder with much pop.  Edgar Renteria is the closest in recent history that I can think of.
  6. This one really hasn’t applied to the Cardinals until the last week or so as fielding goes, as their defense has been pretty impressive team-wise, a good reason for their success to date.  You could argue that the offense has had its share of unimpressive performances, leading to undue losses for the pitching staff - but I might extend this commandment a bit further to include not faulting the starting pitchers who have been victimized by the bullpen allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate.
  7. LaRussa and Duncan have a minor tendency to push starting pitchers beyond their limits and not pull them at signs of distress and trouble getting hitters out.  In their defense, it is hard to justify pulling  a starter who has cruised through six innings only to go to questionable arms (and mental states) in the bullpen.  To look at this a different way, you could argue that the pitchers have been abused by the consistent letdowns of the bullpen, costing them wins.  The Cards’ ‘pen has 25 losses on the season, exacerbated by 27 blown saves, the most in MLB.
  8. Tony and his merry band of Redbirds would never be accused of riding a hot hand.  It took almost two months before Ryan Ludwick could find himself a regular spot in the lineup, and all he’s done is put up MVP-quality numbers this season.
  9. This appears to be the biggest Cardinal sin (yuk yuk) committed this season (well, and who am I kidding, every other season in LaRussa’s tenure).  The same bullpen retreads are run out every night while youngsters like Chris Perez are “forced to earn their keep” or “made to earn their job” while guys like Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Franklin seemingly can’t do anything horrible enough to lose theirs.  Jason Motte has been filthy on the mound at triple-A Memphis this season, but can’t get a sniff with the big club, despite the massive amounts of shuffling being done this year.  Meanwhile, Kelvin Jimenez continues to get call-ups.  There appears to be a real rift in the organization between what the front office of John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow are trying to accomplish and what Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan want to trot out on the field every night.  Anthony Reyes pitched brilliantly for Cleveland the other night, was anyone surprised?  They allowed him to pitch how he was comfortable pitching and he had a great outing.  It will be interesting to see where this team goes next season as more youth is developed and more of the stopgap veteran players depart.  It will be perhaps even more interesting seeing what LaRussa does following next year, when is contract comes due again.
  10. This one kind of follows with number one - I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would buy into this philosophy - especially if they had to face Albert Pujols at any point.  Of course, this also takes on special meaning when applied to a team facing the Cardinals, because as we all know - Pitchers Hit Eighth.

What does all this mean?  Eh, virtually nothing, other than I found the list interesting and thought I could throw together some entertaining comparisons and ideas as they apply to the Cardinals.

How would you apply these axioms of Sabermetrics to the hometown club?  Leave a note below…

Next Page →

  • Recent Comments

  • Redbird Tweets


  • Baseball Jerseys

  • STLToday Articles

  • MLB.com Articles

  • Sponsor

  • Great Cardinals tickets available at Onlineseats.com. Check us out for all your ticket needs including MLB tickets like tickets for Cubs games and Cincinnati Reds tickets. Plus we have great Rams tickets and theatre tickets including Wicked tickets.

  • Categories