Just about everyone in Cardinal Nation has had plenty of time to become acquainted with the latest flapdoodle involving Skip Schumaker’s latest baseball card from Topps.  It features the now famous Busch Squirrel (aka Rally Squirrel), and it really is an actual card with Skip’s name on it.

Chasing Tail

Yep.  That’s it.  A squirrel running across the ground.  Not pictured is Roy Oswalt about to go postal on the mound due to the interruption which may have cost Roy a potential strike.  No matter.  This is all about poor Skip.  He has to share the spotlight with a lousy squirrel.  Sad.

Or so we thought….

It turns out that we have uncovered the original print that was created by Topps, and it does not have a squirrel anywhere to be seen.

Little Braun

We’ve been bamboozled.  Hoodwinked.  Run amok and yadda, yadda, yadda, and meh.  The only thing scampering across the ground near Skip’s foot was a miniature Ryan Braun.  It’s hard to be sure in two dimensions, but it appears that Braun is attempting to roll into Skip’s foot in order to throw Skip off balance.  There is no way of knowing how Braun turned himself into “Little Braun” or whether or not the name “Little Braun” is already being used by Braun for another reason.  The obvious thing here is that he is a devious little rodent with no regard for other people when he is “Little Braun”.  Truly sad.  Not exactly the kind of thing I would expect from a league MVP.

Like you, we here at PH8 have been wondering what team will sign Aaron Miles.  Sure, his massive 1.0 WAR in 9 seasons may be easily overlooked, and his ability to play all the positions on the field (including free safety and punter) can be forgotten.  How can teams pass on a middle infielder who possesses a fastball that moves like Jagger?

As it turns out, Aaron has been keeping himself busy.  Very busy.

Sirius Miles of Azkaban

Between fighting he who shall not be named and commuting between Azkaban and Hogwarts, Sirius Miles has no time for petty Muggle games like baseball.  Too bad.  He’s almost old enough that the Rockies might start showing interest.

Naturally, some in St. Louis were sad to hear that Edwin Jackson had signed with the Washington Nationals during this offseason.  Good news, sports fans.  It turns out that E-Jax is so excited about his new gig that he’s doing everything he can to fit in right away.

Which President is Edwin?

It really does not get any more pathetic than this.  At least E-Jax is leading the presidential pack…..but he’s still playing for the Nationals.

TIDBIT:  For those of you confused by the numbering system, “IX” is like the number “9″ in Martian or something.

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Pitching wins championships.  Defense wins championships.  The best defense is a good offense.  A watched pot never boils.

These cliches make some sense, but there is no absolute truth to be found among them.  The Cardinals won the 2011 World Series with something short of a stellar defense, but it would be woefully inaccurate to portray the team’s often inconsistent offense as the savior of its defense.  That leaves pitching or a boiling pot, but I’ll go with pitching.

How good was the pitching for the World Series winners?  “Good enough” isn’t a bad response, but just how do we measure “good enough”.  In this instance, I’m going to use FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).  FIP is basically a statistic that seeks to quantify pitching performance by using a formula to account for the outcome of all plate appearances for which a pitcher is responsible.  That is an exceedingly complicated way of saying that FIP is like a pitcher’s ERA without defense being considered as a factor.  The premise is that it is possible to assess a pitcher’s performance based on outcomes that are independent of what the defense does.

Rather than regurgitate the formula and go into an explanation about FIP constants, I’m just going to give you a few examples (lower is better just like with ERA).

GOOD:  The year Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young Award, his FIP was 2.90.  It would be an understatement to mention that 2.90 is “good”.  Carpenter was dominant that season.  If you believe me when I say that Carp was dominant, then imagine what Pedro Martinez was like in 2001 when his FIP was 1.61.  Whew.

BAD:  Brad Penny posted a 5.02 FIP in 2011 which was good for 2nd highest FIP for a qualifying pitcher.  I’m not picking on Bad Penny, but….well…actually I am picking on him.  Moving on.

Consider the FIPs for the Cardinal starters in 2011.

• Chris Carpenter – 3.06 (3.31 xFIP)
• Kyle Lohse – 3.67 (4.04 xFIP)
• Jaime Garcia – 3.23 (3.31 xFIP)
• Jake Westbrook – 4.25 (4.08 xFIP)
• Kyle McClellan – 4.92 (4.34 xFIP)
• Edwin Jackson – 3.55 (3.73 xFIP), 4.01 FIP (4.03 xFIP) as a Cardinal

Based on a starting rotation of Carpenter, Lohse, Garcia, Westbrook, and Wainwright, what are the chances that the 2012 starting rotation is as good as the 2011 rotation?  Well, consider some projections from various, legitimate sources (and me, too).

• Carpenter Projections:  Bill James – 3.25, RotoChamp – 3.26, Fans – 3.37
• Lohse Projections: Bill James – 4.09, RotoChamp – 3.91, Fans – 4.14
• Garcia Projections:  Bill James – 3.47, RotoChamp – 3.31, Fans – 3.48
• Westbrook Projections:  Bill James – 4.35, RotoChamp – 4.31, Fans – 4.45
• Wainwright Projections:  Bill James – 3.24, RotoChamp – 2.99, Fans – 3.20

Depending on whose projections you use to compare, it could be too close to call.  Based on the Bill James numbers, the Cardinals would see a decline for all 4 starters returning from 2011.  The drop is then compensated for by the substitution of Wainwright for the McClellan/Jackson duo.  Is that good enough?

The answer may depend on what the goal is.  If the goal is just to make the playoffs, then I think the starting pitching looks to be in slightly better shape than last year.  If you consider a potential playoff run, that’s a whole different story.  The top 4 FIPs from 2011 – 3.06, 3.23, 3.55, and 3.67.  Projected top 4 for 2012?  3.24, 3.25, 3.47, and 4.09.  The implication here is that the Cardinals would be better off in a short series than in a 7 game series.  That’s not a horrible prognosis, but they have to get there first.

If you like using FIP, enjoy movies about gladiators, and you are a Cardinal fan, consider Roy Oswalt for a moment.  Oswalt was good for a 3.44 FIP (3.95 xFIP) in 2011, and his projects are as follows:  Bill James – 3.52, RotoChamp – 3.50, Fans – 3.47.  If the Cardinals manage to sign Ol’ Roy, then a FIP around 3.50 could make the top 4 for 2012 look like this:  3.24, 3.25, 3.47, 3.50.  Not bad at all.

TIDBIT:  The formula for FIP is (13 * HR + 3 * BB – 2 * K)/IP + a FIP constant.  Different sources use different constants, so that should be kept in mind when discussing with the rest of the guys on your lawn dart team.

MORE BITS OF TID:  I opted to use FIP, because more people I’ve spoken with about metrics use FIP than xFIP.  However, xFIP has a lot of value as well, because it removes a pitcher’s HR data and replaces it with the league average rate.

NOTE:  All FIP information was obtained from Fangraphs.com, because our research team here at PH8 was too busy working on TPS reports.

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Having read some of the other great lists posted at the other United Cardinal Blogger sites today, it’s both clear to me and worries me a bit that I’ve interpreted the assignment differently. Not convinced that’s a good or a bad thing, I’ve decided to press forward with my own interpretation and list.

As such, you’ll note that I’ve chosen not to list out five plays – and that’s not a criticism of those that did, again just my interpretation – but rather to pick five things that to me “stand for” the Cardinals. Events, traditions, and yes, some great plays that collectively, to me, represent what I think of when I think of the St. Louis Cardinals. Iconic Cardinal Moments.

5. Ozzie Smith flips

For a child of the Eighties, Ozzie WAS the Cardinals. Yeah, sure, they won a lot, and there was Whiteyball – but an eight-year old can only appreciate a World Series against the Minnesota Twins so much. I wanted to see Ozzie flip.

4. World Series Championships

Sometimes, and it’s become more frequent and easier living amongst many friends that are Cub fans, I have to stop myself from being frustrated with the Cardinals and their current performance and appreciate what good fortune I’ve had as a baseball fan.  Eleven World Titles, three during my lifetime, and three more appearances in the Fall Classic during my years to boot.

Stop to think about that. Do the math. The Cardinals have appeared in more World Series during my lifetime than sixteen teams have in their respective franchise histories.  The Cardinals have WON more World Series in my lifetime than seventeen teams have in their entire histories.

Brian Bartow, the Cardinals’ Director of Media Relations shared a great story with the group of us bloggers that covered the Winter Warm-Up, telling us that a sportswriter friend of his had called after the Cards won this last Series, and asked if the team’s parade route through downtown St. Louis was going to be “the usual?”  The answer? “Yep.”

That’s iconic.

3. Enos Slaughter‘s Mad Dash and the Iconic Plays

That’s a kick-ass band name, eh?

I list Slaughter’s play specifically because it’s one of the most well-revered in Cardinal history.

But what others do we have?  Mark McGwire‘s home run record chase in 1998. Adam Wainwright versus Carlos Beltran. Ozzie Smith‘s “Go crazy, folks!” home run in 1985. David Freese in pretty much the entire 2011 World Series. Glenn Brummer stealing home…

Bob Gibson‘s seventeen strikeouts in 1968. Albert Pujols in 2005, 2011 – well, just a lot of Albert. Jim Edmonds circus catches. Yadier Molina‘s home run in New York in 2006. Mark Whiten‘s four home runs. I digress, but you get the point.

And there have been a fair share of solemn memories too. Darryl Kile‘s death in 2002. Jack Buck passing in the same year. And who could forget Jack’s poem after 9/11:

Yeah, there’s a lot of history there.

2. Opening Day in St. Louis

The Clydesdales and “Here Comes the King”. The Hall of Famers in red sport jackets. Good luck finding a seat.

I was privileged enough to attend Opening Day (yes, it’s something to be capitalized) in 2006. Opening not only what turned into a championship season for the Cards, but also the new (and at the time, yet unfinished) Busch Stadium was truly a treat.

If you are a Cardinal fan and you have the means and/or opportunity, Opening Day is a must on the bucket list.

1. Meet at Musial

A long-held Cardinal tradition, and one that has had a little extra meaning for me since 2004, Cardinal fans have been meeting up at the Stan Musial statue by Busch Stadium for years.

Groups of fans, whether meeting up from different workplaces or different places on the map, routinely will decide to “Meet at Musial” before a game, collecting their group and heading into the stadium to watch that night’s contest.

One of my personal favorite Cardinal memories was driving in from my new place of residence to meet my Dad before a 2004 World Series game. We were on the phone with each other throughout the day, making arrangements, planning details, when finally it was obvious I wasn’t going to make it into St. Louis until just before first pitch. What to do? Meet at Musial, of course.

After years of having just driven from across the river with my family and friends to attend a game, I finally had reason to make use of this long-standing tradition. Dad and I met at Stan’s statue and went into Busch II and enjoyed perhaps my favorite Cardinal loss ever (it makes sense, trust me).

We’re very blessed, Cardinal fans. Think about these lists of moments on the various Cardinal blogs today, and they don’t even begin to scratch the surface.

Hopefully you enjoy this list. What are some of your “iconic” Cardinal moments?

Here at PH8, we pride ourselves on bringing you the latest and greatest news about baseball (even if it is fake news).  The latest tidbit floating around the interwebz is an image of the Topps baseball card for one Albert Pujols.  Now, some people are already claiming that this is a fake, but I have my doubts.  The image is just too convincing.  See for yourself:

See the moneybag. Be the moneybag.

Consider the following points when trying to determine whether or not this is a legitimate image of the card or a really, really good fake.  First, Albert appears to be in nearly ideal fielding position to catch a small bag of “respect money”.  Second, the base runner for the Royals looks to actually already be safe on base, so the “respect money” ball is actually a throw to first base to check on the runner.  That seems like an ordinary baseball play, so there is nothing out-of-the-ordinary there.  Finally, this image is attributed to an anonymous source, and according to Benjamin Franklin “anonymous internet sources are simply kindly web denizens who seek not the spotlight of fame”.

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Image via Wikipedia

“Hate” is an extreme or intense dislike for something or someone.  I find it difficult to imagine that a rational person can truly feel hate or hatred for someone they do not personally know who hasn’t directly or indirectly wronged them in such a way as to cause loss of limb or life.  It takes a truly powerful event to evoke real hate.  Or does it?

After the NFL games on Sunday, I did a little trolling on Twitter to see what people were tweeting about Kyle Williams and Billy Cundiff that night.  For those of you who don’t follow the American sport of football, they were supposedly two of the most hated men on the planet.  Cundiff missed a field goal attempt that would have tied the score between the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots.  As if to somehow go one-up on the “arbitrarily evil professional athlete scale”, Kyle Williams then followed Cundiff’s performance by muffing a punt and giving away a critical turnover at the end of the Niners vs Giants game.  Draw and quarter these men!!!  To the gallows!  Off with their heads!!

At the very least, a fair-sized portion of the Twitter world seemed to be full of similarly medieval responses.  This wasn’t pure “snark” of the wannabe 140-character Twitter comedian, and it wasn’t anything normally heard on an elementary school playground.  No, this was far more inelegant and not worth repeating here.  If you are that interested, a great deal of the invective is still available to the Twitter search algorithm.  Have a go.

Maybe it’s simply the natural mellowing that often comes with age and experience, but I found myself feeling badly for both Cundiff and Williams.  After watching them both fail at their chosen profession in front of millions, I struggled for some parallel that would somehow allow me to empathize with both men.  Instead, I found myself reaching back a little into my selectively voluminous baseball memory.

• Steve Bartman
• Dennis Eckersley
• Bill Buckner

If social media had been available to me when Gibson hit the 3-run shot off of Eck, I would have shut down a site with pure nonsense spewing forth from my keyboard.  I could have possibly created the very first baseball-related denial of service attack ever directed at a single player.  I was angry beyond comforting.  I was ranting to end all rants.  I hated Eckersley and Gibson and everything related to either player.  I was in short….an idiot.

Only those who have reached the pinnacle of what they do can be entrusted with the greatest responsibilities that their respective companies have to entrust.  How many of us are so fortunate and as accomplished as Eck, Buckner, or Kyle Williams or Billy Cundiff?  Let he or she cast that first stone.  If you have never been there, then you may struggle to even imagine the personal emotions that each has had to deal with since erring on the side of losing.

As for Bartman, his own personal living hell was created by a singular moment, created from that desire that nearly every baseball fan has practically since birth….to catch a baseball at a game.  Just one moment of self-absorbed action has vilified a man for doing the exact same thing that many of us have done so many times.  He just reached out to grab a baseball.  It’s not like he fell asleep while driving and put his SUV into a bus of nuns.  It’s not like he ruled a country and set about the destruction of millions or billions of lives.  Nope.

Imagine what your Facebook timeline would have looked like back in 2003 when all 27 of your friends went nuts over Bartman and his headphones.  Probably at least 2 incidents of “Eat it, Bartman!”, maybe a whisper of a “Bartman sucks!” chant, and at least a couple “Fartman” references.  Classy.

Does any of this change what has happened?  Do you truly feel better for insulting someone you don’t even likely know from the comfort of your couch?  Feel all big and bad hiding behind your laptop or smartphone, while you make wisecracks questioning some irregularities in Cundiff’s ancestry.

Congratulations.

You have now reached the “Top 10″ for bestselling items at the world’s jerk store.  If you stop berating the ref at your kid’s soccer game for 2 seconds, you may come collect your trophy which is being proudly presented by the “Moises Alou Totally Had That Ball” fan club.  This whole “life” thing?  You are doing it wrong.  Trust me, I know.  Where do you think the “Fartman” reference originated?

I was doing “it” wrong, and by “it” I mean sports in general.  Win or lose, it’s about entertainment and entertainers.  It’s not about anything else, and it really isn’t a macrocosm about anything except our collective desire to watch people run back and forth on a field while chasing an oblong, round, or dimpled ball.  Face it, folks.  We are easily amused in our spare time, and our passion for our chose amusements sometimes runs way long of what it should.

So, if you happen to be on Twitter, go ahead and give @kyle_williams10 a virtual “you’ll keep your chin up”.  If you happen to see Cundiff, remind him that at least he isn’t Steve Norwood (or maybe try something a bit better).  As for Eck and Buckner, just tell them for me that I wish to congratulate them for their illustrious careers in a game I only wish I could have played at their level.  As for Bartman, tell him I want an interview.  I promise to be kind.

-Jeffrey Maier

Just kidding.  This whole thing was authored by @gr33nazn, and you may yelp at me on Twitter!

Image by Jared Kelly via Flickr

The question has been asked since the day he was hired. “What kind of manager is Mike Matheny going to be?”

It was asked of the players, the existing coaching staff, and it was asked of Matheny himself.

The players seem genuinely excited about playing for Matheny, as evidenced by Chris Carpenter‘s comments at Winter Warm-Up.

“I know that Mike’s gonna be prepared. I’ve known Mike before you guys knew Mike. I played with him in Toronto. He’s a special man, great leader, positive guy, excited, prepared. Not that you can replace Tony La Russa, but I’m not sure you could pick a better guy to lead this organization. I know that he’s excited about it, I know the players in the clubhouse are excited about it. I’m looking forward to it. I’m looking forward to seeing his face every day and see what he has to bring to this team.”

So the question remains, what exactly might he bring to the Cardinals?  Perhaps the same things he outlines in a letter to parents of the youth team he coached in St. Louis, his most recent managing job prior to the Cardinals?

Posted at the website for Mac-and-Seitz Baseball and Softball, a training academy run by former Major Leaguers Mike Macfarlane and Kevin Seitzer, the letter pretty firmly and matter-of-factly outlines Matheny’s expectations of his young players – and their parents.

Some of the highlights:

I always said that the only team that I would coach would be a team of orphans, and now here we are. The reason for me saying this is that I have found the biggest problem with youth sports has been the parents. I think that it is best to nip this in the bud right off the bat.

So no Colby Rasmus return then, coach?

My main goals are as follows:

(1) to teach these young men how to play the game of baseball the right way,

(2) to be a positive impact on them as young men, and

(3) do all of this with class.

Reds and Brewers fans should have a field day with that.

The boys will not be allowed at any time to show any emotion against the umpire. They will not shake their head, or pout, or say anything to the umpire. This is my job, and I will do it well. I once got paid to handle those guys, and I will let them know when they need to hear something.

Hrmm, has he had this conversation with Carp yet?

I am completely fine with your son getting lessons from whomever you see fit. The only problem I will have is if your instructor is telling your son not to follow the plan of the team.

Still not looking good for a Rasmus return.

Every boy on this team will be worked as a pitcher.

Now you see what John Mozeliak meant when he called Skip Schumaker a “super-utility”?

I am a stickler about the thought process of the game. I will be talking non-stop about situational hitting, situational pitching, and defensive preparation. The question that they are going to hear the most is “What were you thinking?” What were you thinking when you threw that pitch? What were you thinking during that at bat? What were you thinking before the pitch was thrown, were you anticipating anything? I am a firm believer that this game is more mental than physical, and the mental may be more difficult, but can be taught and can be learned by a 10 and 11 year old.

Looks like there may be hope for Tyler Greene yet…

Speaking of batting order, I would like to address that right from the top as well seeing that next to playing time this is the second most complained about issue, or actually tied for second with position on the defensive field. Once again, I need you to know that I am trying to develop each boy individually, and I will give them a chance to learn and play any position that they are interested in.

Keep that outfielder’s glove close by, Matt Adams.

The boys will be required to show up ready to play every time they come to the field. Shirts tucked in, hats on straight, and pants not drooping down to their knees. There is not an excuse for lack of hustle on a baseball field. From the first step outside the dugout they will hustle. They will have a fast jog to their position, to the plate, and back to the bench when they make an out. We will run out every hit harder than any team we will play, and will learn how to always back up a play to help our teammates. Every single play, every player will be required to move to a spot. Players that do not hustle and run out balls will not play. The boys will catch on to this quickly. The game of baseball becomes very boring when players are not thinking about the next play and what they possibly could do to help the team. Players on the bench will not be messing around. I will constantly be talking with them about situations and what they would be doing if they were in a specific position, or if they were the batter. There is as much to learn on the bench as there is on the field if the boys want to learn. All of this will take some time for the boys to conform to. They are boys and I am not trying to take away from that, but I do believe that they can bear down and concentrate hard for just a little while during the games and practices.

All kidding aside, this last passage is my favorite part. Now, it’s clearly not quite the same managing million dollar men as it is managing a youth team (and their parents), but it’s clear that Matheny is an intellectual guy, much like his predecessor, and thoroughly invested in the fundamentals and preparation. So in other words, not much different than any other manager, really, but reading this letter gave me a bit more insight into Matheny’s personal goals for his teams and confirmed what many of us have already suspected about his mindset and motives.

Let me know as soon as possible whether or not this is a commitment that you and your son want to make.

Thanks,

Mike Matheny

My son and I are in, coach. We’re really looking forward to Spring Training.

Image by brianandjaclyn via Flickr

Yeah, I’m a little behind on this one – so what, wanna fight about it?

5. Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay go fishing

I’ve been told, over and over and over and over again, that this was a thing. And then Doc saved someone from a snake and Carp busted up his toe. Story! (You can listen to Carpenter tell the real story at Winter Warm-Up here.)

4. Matt Holliday IS GOOD AT BASEBALL

Somehow, defending the baseball ability and honor of Matt Holliday has become a crusade of mine. Maybe it’s because all of the “he’s not worth the contract” and “Holliday should be traded” or “Holliday has been disappointing” is just nonsensical. Maybe I think he’s a dreamboat. Either way, he’s GOOD AT BASEBALL.

See arguments here … and here.

3. Cardinals minor league system rates highly

With or without a first baseman making north of $25mm per season, developing players from within that can contribute – see: Cardinals, St. Louis, c. 2011 – is a critical component of the Cards’ desire to remain consistently competitive for years to come.

To that end, it is meaningful then, to see well-regarded prospect/talent evaluators such as John Sickels rank the Cards’ organizational depth so well and highly amongst all MLB teams.

Obviously prospects don’t always pan out – but the more chances you have with higher odds, the better, no?

2. Organizational reconstruction

Being tardy in compiling this list has afforded me the knowledge that more coaches have departed and the organization continues to undergo a complete makeover from front office to on-field staff to player personnel, with varying levels of impact.

Clearly the departure of a future Hall of Famer will have the largest impact in terms of wins and losses, but what about the mainstays that have retired, prioritized family (and don’t misunderstand that, it’s with good reason), and/or found greener pastures elsewhere?

Having a rookie manager, Mike Matheny, is bound to cause Cardinal fans even more heartburn than the previously infuriating Tony La Russa. Time will tell if Derek Lilliquist can work any sort of magic similar to Dave Duncan‘s well-documented success with reclamation projects and creating superior pitching staffs.

But what of the departure of Jeff Luhnow and some of the other important front-office brains like Sig Mejdal and Mike Elias? This clearly will have an impact on the item we just discussed, continuing to develop the organization’s farm system toward being more self-sufficient, higher-performing, and most importantly – maintaining depth. The Cardinals have a very important position in the draft this year, holding many picks from free agency departures – Dan Kantrovitz should have some fun.

1. Cardinals win the 2011 World Series

Really, this entire list could’ve been made up of moments from the last month or so of the 2011 season, but what fun would that be? A lot, you’re right, but I decided to condense the season into one list item.

The Cardinals won the 2011 World Series. Is there more that must be said? Yes, it’s a fascinating and unfathomable story to hear how they got there, but at the end of the day Game Six of the World Series was one of the best ever (certainly in my still somewhat young memory) and the Cards finished the job in Game Seven.

As was said at the Winter Warm-Up last weekend – that was a great time to put the finishing touches on a celebration of 2011 and the organization’s success. Now it’s time to look forward to 2012, time to do work.

I’ll surely take a beating for this perhaps sounding a bit trite, but I say it with as much sincerity, genuine appreciation, and wonderment as I can – isn’t being a Cardinal fan awesome? Thanks Dad!

Lance Berkman at Winter Warm-Up

When asked what his thoughts were when he heard that Albert Pujols had signed with the Angels, Lance Berkman responded, “I thought I was gonna be playing first.”

Berkman went on to say that Pujols’ departure surprised him, that a year ago he would’ve said there was no way Pujols would leave St. Louis before adding, “I thought I was always going to be in Houston, and here I am a happy member of the St. Louis Cardinals.”

Berkman expects to make an easy transition back to first base, but joked, “It’s a lot easier to make the All-Star team as an outfielder, I know that.”

So what has changed in Berkman’s preparations for the 2012 season as a first baseman instead of outfielder?

In his best deadpan sarcasm, “I can just relax now. And I’m playing first base, so I can get huge.”

Obviously tongue-in-cheek comments aside, Berkman said not much else has changed about his preparation for the 2012 season, having only slightly modified the off-season conditioning plan that he and trainer Ben Fairchild developed last year used to lose weight and get into playing shape.

“Nothing really changes, I think as you age, you learn that you’ve got to deal a little bit more, you’ve got to be a little bit more conscious of how you prepare for the season and, you know, I learned a lot about that last year and doing a lot of the same things I did. Obviously with a shorter off-season you want to take the time to heal too, so you have to balance it and listen to your body, what it’s telling you. The bottom line is, I’ll be ready to go when we open camp.”

When pressed about last year’s comments about the running outfield being easier on his knees, Berkman responded with a chuckle, “Yeah, I was just joking with y’all.” The Cardinal first baseman went on to say that he doesn’t think much will change from the outfield to first base in terms of the impact on his knees or the rest of his body and fitness, echoing last off-season’s comment that the movements at the positions are just different, not any more or less impactful.

Berkman repeated similar comments heard from the Cardinal players about 2012 expectations, particularly sans Pujols, saying that one player didn’t win the World Series for them last season and that he’s really excited about the construction of the 2012 team.

As for his own expectations and statistics, having experienced a renaissance season in 2011 while winning the National League’s Comeback Player of the Year award, is it unfair for the team and fans to expect Berkman to perform similarly in 2012? “Yeah it’s fair. I mean, heck, if I don’t do that I’ll be disappointed. I think those were pretty close to my career averages, so until I get really old, I would expect myself to be able to produce that.”

Other Berkman tidbits:

• On Tony La Russa’s retiring - “He will be missed, but that having been said, I think the organization picked the right guy for the job, and I’m excited about playing for Mike [Matheny].”
• On whether he thinks Carlos Beltran can still play center field – “I think too much is made of, I mean heck, I hadn’t played the outfield in seven or eight years. You know, I wasn’t Willie Mays out there, but I did a decent job last year. If you’re athletic enough to have done that at some point, I mean the man’s only thirty-five, I think he’s a year younger than I am. While it may not be in his best interests to run out there in center field every single day, there’s no doubt that he could do it. I don’t believe that he’s ready for the rocking chair yet. He runs pretty out there.”

—–

Keep checking back here for more updates from Winter Warm-Up, and follow @PitchersHit8th on Twitter.

Much more to come from Saturday’s goings on at the Hyatt, but looking forward to Sunday, here is some of the Winter Warm-Up lineup for day two:

Autographs

9am – David Green, JC Romero, Chris Duncan, Danny Cox, Curt Ford, Chuck Diering
10am – Red Schoendienst, Shelby Miller, Matt Adams, Jim Donohue
11am – Tony La Russa, Daniel Descalso, Tom Lawless, Brandon Dickson
12noon – Lee Thomas, Mitchell Boggs
1pm – Jason Motte, Jon Jay, Jaime Garcia, Mike Shannon
2pm – Todd Worrell, Shane Robinson, TJ Mathews
3pm – Lance Berkman, Jake Westbrook, Matt Holliday, Tom Henke
4pm – Neil Fiala

Presentations

10:30am – Championship Collection from the 2011 Season from the Cardinals Hall of Fame Museum
11:30am – “Collecting Sports Memorabilia”
12noon – Launching the Cardinals Hall of Fame Museum Website
1pm – St. Louis Baseball Beginnings
1pm – “Caring for the 2011 World Champions”
2pm – Meet the members of Team Fredbird
3pm – Baseball Photography; “Championship Year in Review”

I’ll be wandering around all day, please leave a comment below or tweet me @PitchersHit8th if there is a specific photo or story/quote you’d like to see!

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Keep checking back here for more updates from Winter Warm-Up, and follow @PitchersHit8th on Twitter.

Well, I’ve got 20 minutes of video from Adam Wainwright‘s appearance in the media room today – unfortunately, I’ve got some work to do to figure out how and/or where to upload it. It only occurred to me after the fact that the file size of 20 minutes of HD video is a bit prohibitive for usual distribution methods.

In any case, here is a clip from Wainwright’s time at the podium, answering a question about Albert Pujols leaving town. I apologize for the audio quality, in fact, you may not be able to hear it at all without attempting to blow your speakers. I’ll work on that for tomorrow.

At any rate, the video:

Highlights from the clip:

Wainwright said that obviously as a teammate you want a player of Pujols’ caliber and status as a Cardinal to come back, but understands and can see from a fan’s perspective how a long-term $300mm commitment could be “potential suicide.”

He went on to say that type of deal is fine “if Albert is Albert,” but at the end of the day free agency and baseball is a business and as much as you can want a guy to finish his career in one place, it doesn’t always work out that way.

Lots of similar reaction to the other players and what has already been said – thought the “potential suicide” choice of words was interesting.

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Keep checking back here for more updates from Winter Warm-Up, and follow @PitchersHit8th on Twitter.

Needing a good lift to get out of the cold-weather blues, I am looking forward to many things in the coming months. The crazy whirlwind of events since October has left many question marks, as yesterday’s great post here stated perfectly.

The first and only good part of being stuck in a hotel away from home is that it provides plenty of down time. I encourage anyone in a similar spot to open up this link to get a nice surprise.

This will be the first time since relocating back to the Midwest that I will miss the Caravan, so I expect to read plenty of good reports from fellow Cards’ fans in the upcoming days. As for good news, check back regularly for plenty of Winter Warm-up content as Nick gets the inside scoop!

It has taken some time, but I finally have come around to getting ready for the St. Louis experience that will be heading our way in April. 2012 not only brings plenty of change, but it also offers a nice glimpse into the future while celebrating the past.

Of course without the World Championship this post would have a very different tone, but those are the breaks, right?

Taking stock in the Cardinals, we have every right to believe that a few breaks will go the positive way after a hugely emotional last spring/summer. My WS DVD collection is staring at me, but it is going to take a few more weekends to get into that groove.

I figure right before pitchers and catchers report sounds like a good time!

Bundle up St. Louis faithful because the winds of change are nearly over. It is almost time to start predicting the 25-man roster and planning the first trips to Busch. As great as last season ended, I anxiously await the festivities that ESPN will broadcast on Opening Day.

Even better than that will be in the days before as Springfield will host the big league club and introduce the new team to the Birds on the Bat faithful. And that is exactly what is needed to get over the winter blues.

I was minding my own business on Twitter this morning when the must-follow Sam Miller tweeted a link to this post from El Maquino, the results (as of Thursday morning) of a St. Louis Post-Dispatch online poll. Go check them out.

Are you done laughing yet? Can I continue? OK, I’ll wait …

Let’s get two facts out of the way first: 1) However much he made you curse and possibly destroy small household items at times, Tony La Russa was a great manager who helped guide the Cardinals to many successful seasons and two World Series titles; 2) Dave Duncan was a terrific pitching coach who had a profound effect on the team’s arms and deserves consideration as the first of his occupation to make the Hall of Fame.

With that said, to suggest that the departures of both La Russa and Duncan will impact the Cardinals more than the departure of Albert Pujols is pure lunacy. Pujols is a player on the actual baseball field doing actual baseball player things and doing them better than just about anyone, ever (analysis!). He has been worth approximately eight wins above replacement per season in the major leagues. This is a rare feat. The Cardinals probably have enough good pieces even without Pujols to reach the playoffs again in 2012, but to suggest his exit to Los Angeles of Anaheim doesn’t make St. Louis clearly worse is as nutty as suggesting the team should have brought back Corey Patterson.

As I guessed on Twitter, maybe this poll is less representative of Cardinals fans being misguided than it is of them being angry at Pujols the “trader,” to use the parlance of the seething Internet commenter. It’s probably some of both, but either way, it doesn’t speak particularly well of the BFIB.

Imagine watching a Cardinals game this season. Pujols’ absence will be highly conspicuous, what with someone else batting third, likely nobody hitting like one of the best players on Earth, and all of the players politely yielding to Jose Oquendo’s stop signs at third base.

How conspicuous will the lack of La Russa and Duncan be? Sure, the TV cameras won’t capture TLR glowering behind his shades in the corner of the dugout or Dunc walking out to the mound with a reminder to throw more two-seamers. But on an individual game basis, nothing likely will seem amiss. Over the course of the season, the Cardinals might hit and run less or exhibit other small adjustments in strategy, but it won’t be anything severe.

Now, granted, a manager and pitching coach make their biggest impact behind the scenes and outside of games. I’m not one of those people, if they even exist, who says a manager doesn’t matter. He does matter in many ways, most of which are difficult or impossible to quantify. But you’re not going to find any serious baseball analyst who will tell you that impact is like the 8 WAR/season Pujols contributes (or even the 5.4 he put up in 2011). We have no idea how Mike Matheny will fare as a manager, but chances are the team won’t be significantly worse with him than it was with TLR. This isn’t, say, basketball, where a change in head coach can lead to a complete 180 in style of play.

For his part, Duncan clearly got Cardinals pitchers to buy into a philosophy that seemed to generate positive results for many more guys than not, and his binders full of copious and detailed scouting information apparently will go on leave with him. But the Cardinals have a veteran pitching staff, most of whom have spent at least a year, if not several years, absorbing Duncan’s teachings. Duncan’s replacement, Derek Lilliquist, is qualified for the job, and did it last year when Duncan was away from the team. He’s also smart enough to know not to fix something that isn’t broken, as he told Joe Strauss:

Lilliquist remains a devotee of Duncan’s theories about pitch efficiency, the “pitch-to-contact” philosophy that meshes well with sinkerball pitchers who command the strike zone.

“‘Dunc’ had a successful formula that worked for a long time,” Lilliquist said. “You’d be foolish to come in and try to change philosophies.”

In the end, the Cardinals might miss La Russa’s relentless day-to-day intensity in the dugout and his many years of battle-tested experience. They probably will miss Duncan’s knack for reviving foundering careers and his ability to call up decades of first-hand data.

They won’t miss either as much as Pujols hitting the ever-loving %&*#$ out of a baseball. Period.

It’s official.  The Baseball Writers Association of America voters have selected Barry Larkin as the newest member of the baseball Hall of Fame.  Huzzah!

Unfortunately, it appears that maybe a few voters were asleep at the wheel.  Check the full results (courtesy of bbwaa.com).

2012 Hall of Fame Voting

That’s a shame.  It seems that maybe a few voters were asleep at the wheel or something.  No surprise there.  This isn’t the first time the voters have magically pulled only 1 rabbit out of a fully packed hat.

WE ARE STILL DOING HALL OF FAME VOTING WRONG:  I suggested last week in “We Are Doing the Hall of Fame Wrong” that most armchair voters base their decisions on something other than set criteria or established guidelines.  For lack of a better name, consider this process the “a la carte” approach, because it allows people to arbitrarily pick and choose statistics to use when making a case for or against a particular player.  Thus, some discussions become centered around the number of wins a pitcher has accumulated or some player’s “clutchness” as defined by a group of people who have VCR’s at home with the clock still blinking “12:00″.

ALT METHOD v1.0:  If you are playing the at-home version of the “Cooperstown HoF Voting for Rocket Surgeons”, then feel free to try some variation of this method.

1. Pick some really cool, fancy advanced statistics to use for comparing player against each other as well as an expected standard.  I tend to use WAR, ERA+, OPS+, FIP, and statistics for a player’s 162 game average.  You could just as easily include things like wOBA and wRC+.
2. Look at some of the aforementioned for several players already in the Hall of Fame to create some reference points.
3. Delineate between raw data statistics and refined data statistics.  A relatively decent working definition of the latter is simply that it is a raw data statistic that has had some mathematical adjustment or correction performed in order to help eliminate certain inherent biases.
4. Decide which additional categories you are willing to use for debating cases for players on the bubble.  Maybe this is a good time to factor in the teams involved, era-specific context, and individual achievements/awards.
5. Identify a player that represents the lowest threshold possible for gaining admittance, and compare the candidate against the HoF guy.
6. Apply the same system to every single candidate you wish to consider.

Go ahead and give this a try to see if you can tweak your system to accurately predict which players make the HoF and which ones do not.

VOTING PROCESS FYI:  In order to determine which players get added to the ballot each year, the BBWAA creates a selection committee to narrow down the field as much as reasonably possible.  The committee members are then locked in a very warm room with refrigerators full of non-alcoholic and no bathroom.  The names of all players eligible to be put on the ballot are printed on Big Chief notebook paper, and all the pages are pasted to the northernmost wall of the room. Each member is then given a blindfold and 10 shots with a paintball gun.  After all shots have been taken, representatives from Dewey, Cheatem, and Howe carefully yank the pages off the wall.  If a player’s page is covered by 3 or more different colors, then that player’s name goes on the ballot.

TIDBIT:  The prediction last week was that Larkin would “clear the bar easily”, and 86% of the vote probably counts as “easily”.  I also mentioned that Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, Lee Smith, Larry Walker, and Mark McGwire would all gain some support.  Morris jumped from 53.5% in 2011 to 66.7% in 2012.  Bagwell made a similar jump from 41.7% to 56.0%.  Lee Smith gained slightly from 45.3% to 50.6%, Larry Walker moved from 20.3% to 22.9%, and McGwire dipped slightly from 19.8% to 19.5%.  Finally, Bernie Williams is the only 1st timer to collect more than 5% in order to remain on the ballot for next year.

Follow gr33nazn on Twitter for more Magic 8 Ball predictions!

Once again, as a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, Pitchers Hit Eighth is casting a ballot for that organization’s symbolic Baseball Hall of Fame voting.

Four of us from the site got together on Episode 10 of the Pitchers Hit Eighth podcast this week to go through the ballot name-by-name to come up with our recommendations for induction.

You’ll have to listen to the podcast for our individual player comments and insights, but for tabulation and transparency purposes, here are our inductees:

Barry Larkin: 4 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh, Dennis, Andrew)
Jeff Bagwell: 4 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh, Dennis, Andrew)
Edgar Martinez: 4 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh, Dennis, Andrew)
Alan Trammell 4 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh, Dennis, Andrew)
Mark McGwire: 4 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh, Dennis, Andrew)
Rafael Palmeiro: 3 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh, Dennis)

And those falling short:

Lee Smith: 2 PH8 votes (Nick, Josh)
Tim Raines: 2 PH8 votes (Nick, Andrew)
Larry Walker: 2 PH8 votes (Nick, Dennis)
Bernie Williams: 1 PH8 vote (Dennis)

No votes:

Brad Radke, Terry Mulholland, Bill Mueller, Eric Young, Brian Jordan, Phil Nevin, Tony Womack, Tim Salmon, Jeromy Burnitz, Ruben Sierra, Javy Lopez, Vinny Castilla, Juan Gonzalez, Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Jack Morris

We’re happy to hear your opinion on the ballot and debate each player’s merits, respectfully. Happy Hall of Fame!

Adam Wainwright’s mesmerizing curveball that froze future teammate Carlos Beltran and ended Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS stands as the iconic image of the Cardinals’ stunning, logic-defying run to the World Series title that year.

But if a play were chosen to represent the unlikely nature of that postseason journey, it might have been the one that set up Wainwright’s tight-rope-walking save. Yadier Molina’s two-run shot off Aaron Heilman in the top of the ninth inning counteracted Endy Chavez’s earlier robbery of Scott Rolen and gave the Cardinals a 3-1 lead.

It’s almost hard to remember now just how atrocious Molina was with the bat that season, his third in the majors and second as the team’s primary catcher. Now that the Cards have added another championship to their collection in a season when Molina produced one of the best offensive performances by any catcher in baseball – to go with his well publicized defense – it’s worth looking back at just how far Yadi has come at the plate and just how unusual of an accomplishment it has been.

Going back to the beginning, this Future Redbirds article from 2008 does a nice job of detailing Molina’s progression as a prospect after he was drafted out of Puerto Rico in 2000. Ranked highly due to his defense, Molina held his own as a minor-league hitter given his position and young age but didn’t display much power or patience. And of course, his speed, even then, could best be described as, “Nope.” The best thing you could have said about Molina the hitter was that he put the ball in play. Combined with his prowess behind the dish, this was enough to move him quickly through the system until he debuted with the big club in June 2004.

In Molina’s first two big league seasons, he hit poorly, but not in an especially attention-grabbing way for a defense-first catcher. His OPS+ those two years were 78 and 70, putting him solidly below average (OPS+ is adjusted for league and ballpark, with 100 being average and every point above/below signifying one percentage point above/below league average for that year).

But 2006 was a different story. Over 461 plate appearances, Molina put up a line of .216/.274/.321, giving him an OPS+ of 53. Molina’s offense was so terrible that even his defense couldn’t mask it – FanGraphs credits him with 0.2 WAR that season, while Baseball-Reference puts him at -0.2.

I wanted to give Molina’s 2006 some context in relation to other young catchers, so I searched Baseball-Reference’s play index for backstops who posted an OPS+ of worse than 60 over at least 300 plate appearances in their third season or earlier. Going back to 1947 (integration), Molina was one of 16, including old friend Eli Marrero.

Molina was one of six, including the still-active Snyder, to rebound later in his career with a season of at least 300 PA of league-average performance (100 OPS+ or better) while still at catcher. None of those other players ever recorded an offensive season as good as Molina’s 2011. At age 28 last year, Molina hit .305/.349/.465 over 518 PA, good for a 126 OPS+ (his OPS of .814 was fifth among MLB catchers). That topped the 121 OPS+ of Clay Dalrymple in 1962, a year after he put up a 55.

I find Molina’s progression as a hitter fascinating and even inspiring.

This isn’t a “toolsy” prospect who “figured things out,” allowing his natural gifts to click at the big league level. This is a dumpy-looking, 5-foot-11, 230-pound catcher who runs like he’s pulling a tractor. If Molina making a snap throw to first base to nab a runner is poetry in motion, Molina swinging a bat is a haiku in motion: short, to the point, and not winning any awards.

But Molina clearly worked hard to turn himself into a capable hitter when he didn’t really have to. We’ve seen time and time again that catchers who can (or are at least perceived to) block pitches in the dirt, throw out runners and call a good game can hang around the major leagues for a long time, even swinging a wet noodle at the plate. And Molina, even as a young player, was better at those things than most. He could have coasted on it but he didn’t.

In 2011, Molina walked at a lower rate than in his career mark while striking out at the same rate, and he doesn’t do either very often. He hit line drives at the same rate. But Molina produced fewer grounders and more fly balls – probably a good thing for a runner of his caliber. He accompanied that change with by far his highest career rate of home runs per fly ball, which helps explain him nearly doubling his career high in homers and topping his career-best slugging percentage by more than 70 points. His BABIP was a career high, but just barely better than his marks in 2008 and 2009.

Molina might have been a little lucky at the plate in 2011, and prudence would demand expecting a bit of a regression in 2012 (ZiPS projects him for .284/.340/.397, 101 OPS+).  But there is no reason to believe that at 29 years old, Yadi won’t continue to contribute at the plate as well as behind it. Now Cardinals fans just have to hope that as he enters the final year of his contract, he will continue making those contributions in St. Louis.