Catching up with the Cardinals’ off-season

So I’ve been biding my time, waiting, watching, allowing the news to come to me. As I’m sure my loyal readers know (all three of you), it’s been eerily quiet.

Let’s catch up with the goings on…

Cardinals need a Holliday

Ed. Note: My apologies to PHE contributor StLCards, who put this post up a few days ago, and I didn’t even realize it was here.  Please read below.

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Last week amidst all the Jake Peavy rumblings I came across a headline that basically indicated the Rockies were now ready to accept less for Holliday. I instantly started writing a post, but unfortunately by the end of a busy work day that post was left unfinished, so I will start anew.

Today I see many headlines indicating a few things, among them that Peavy is almost certainly going to be moved “The train has kind of left the station”, that Manny is still in play, that Cashman is pursuing pitching, that CC is still available, etc. The teams with the big money, ie Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, seem to be pursuing pitching. I’m not sure what the Red Sox are doing right now, although they seem to be pursuing pitching as well in Lowe and japan free agent Junichi Tazawa. What this says to me is, STRIKE NOW for Holliday!

The Rockies want to trade Holliday, Atkins, and Fuentes. That would actually make a nice trio to add if you think about, although the key is to for sure get Holliday. Holliday only has 1 year so we would need to make sure he really wants to stay a Cardinal and get him signed to a quick extension. He would provide an everyday left fielder (Duncan would strictly back up Pujols and be a pinch hitter), provide the much needed protection for Pujols, and would be a huge draw for fans. I’ve dreamed of the day when the Cardinals had a 1-2 punch like that.

Taking a look at the other two Fuentes needs no explanation. Atkins on the other hand, well, we move the versatile Glaus to SS and put Atkins at 3rd. We then sign Orlando Hudson to play 2nd, or how about forgetting infield speed althogether and signing veteran Jeff Kent? How about a lineup of Schumaker, Rasmus, Pujols, Holliday, Glaus, Molina, Kent, Pitcher, Atkins? Wow, do I ever like the sound of that. Kent isn’t an everyday player and Glaus could use some time off as well, so it gives lots of playing time for whichever MI are left. Ludwick and Ankiel and Duncan or whoever else could be traded away. That could be too much money but if they could get something along those lines I’d be very happy. We still have Lopez that can play a variety of positions so Atkins isn’t a requirement to get, and either a power hitting 2B or speed 2B could work. Lots of possibilities once we add Holliday.

This is why I don’t manage the Cardinals

I would not have sent Ryan Franklin out for a second inning (although, who I am kidding, I wouldn’t have brought him into a tie game to begin with).

I would have had Felipe Lopez bunting with Brendan Ryan on first and no one out.

I definitely would have had Lopez bunting with Ryan on second with no one out, after a Carlos Marmol balk.

I don’t think I’d have put Brian Barden into such a high leverage situation in his first at-bat with the big club this season, even to sacrifice bunt.  (Although I had to laugh when WGN put up a stat showing that Barden had never sacrificed in 24 (!) Major League at-bats.  24?!?!  Really?  Then I reminded myself that I wouldn’t have brought him up in that situation either.)

Finally, I would’ve had Cesar Izturis laying down a squeeze bunt with Ryan on third and Lopez on second and one out.  Even though the squeeze had to be foremost on the mind of the Cubs and Lou Piniella, Derrek Lee seemed to be playing awfully deep down the first base line, with Iz2 hitting from the left side.

Now for what actually happened…

Franklin walked Jim Edmonds to leadoff the eighth, his second inning, then got a double play and struck out Mike Fontenot to end the inning.

In the Cards’ half of the ninth inning, Lopez worked the count full, fouled off several pitches before taking one in the dirt from Marmol, giving the Birds two runners, first and second, with no one out.

Barden almost broke every finger on his right hand trying to put a bunt down the third base line on the first pitch he saw from Marmol, up and in.  He shook his hand a few times, calmly stepped back in and dropped the next one perfectly, deep enough to make Aramis Ramirez field it.  The Cards had runners at second and third with one out.  So far so good.

Izturis took a couple pitches to run the count 2-0, then swung and missed on a pitch it was clear he was just trying to get in the air and out of the infield.  Then, as if karma chose the Cards for one night out of many when it has shunned this team, Iz2 chopped a weak hopper to second on an excuse-me swing that was just slow enough to allow Ryan, running on the play, to score around the attempted tag of Geovany Soto.

I saw a lot of good things in the three innings I actually got to watch (travel day for me today, didn’t get home until the Cards had tied it 3-3).

I still don’t trust him as far as I can throw him, but Franklin did the job for one night.  Gosh if only he could’ve been that effective for half of his games pitched this year.

Felipe Lopez is hitting .382/.435/.539 since signing with the Cardinals.  I wrote at the time of the signing that if LaRussa, and more importantly guys like Albert Pujols could convince this guy to give a little effort, I thought he might be decent, but probably not enough playing time to make a difference.  I can’t take credit for having the solution that has made him hit since coming over, since if you click the above link, you will see me generally panning the signing just like everyone else, he has definitely made the most of the opportunity.  It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals treat him in the off-season.  Is Lopez any sort of long-term answer in the middle infield?

Lots to like from Brendan Ryan tonight.  The kid has always been a hustle guy from what I’ve seen, but has been in TLR’s doghouse for a long time.  If you look at the replay of Ryan’s jaunt home from third tonight on Izturis’ chopper, there’s lots to love, and plenty to get a guy out of a hard-nosed manager’s doghouse.  Once he took off, Ryan never once looked back to see where the ball was.  It’s a fundamental that every kid learns in Little League, but players seem to lose at the big league level.  Ryan put his eyes toward the plate and didn’t flinch.  Then there was the slide.  Soto had the plate blocked, and the throw wasn’t terribly late or off-target.  There was certainly enough time to stuff a foot-first slide into the shin-guard and make a tag, really putting a damper on the Cardinal rally.  Instead, Ryan dove around Soto on the outside, and made as deliberate a slap in the dead center of home plate in front of the umpire’s face on a close play that I’ve seen in a long time.  Excellent work by a kid who finds himself again trying to secure a spot on next season’s team.

So touche, Tony.  You’re the manager and I’m not.  Tonight, it all worked swimmingly for you.  Tonight…

Felipe Lopez is a winner

Courtesy of VEB reader Tackle Box in today’s VEB game post, via UmpBump.com, I present you this:

You win Felipe Lopez.  Even if you can’t play left field worth a lick, you win.


Filed Under Cardinal Blogs, Felipe Lopez, Fun

5 Comments | Posted on September 3, 2008 by PHE | Subscribe!

Bob Watson has lost his mind

As I was watching Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Reds, watching the Cards squander another opportunity for a sweep, I saw something that I hadn’t seen from a Cardinal hurler all season.  I saw Kyle Lohse stick up for someone on his team.  Granted, it was himself he was sticking up for, but he showed some moxie nonetheless.

Edinson Volquez had buzzed Lohse in the top of the fifth, high and tight under the chin, and it was clear Kyle didn’t like it, glaring out at Volquez.  Edinson, for his part, played the role he’s supposed to in that case, stomping around like he was upset with himself for losing the pitch up there - he didn’t intend to do it.  And he’d have a good argument - Volquez is among the league leaders in HBP.  He walked four just in this game as well.

Whether he meant to come in on Lohse or not, Volquez quickly saw a very similar pitch from Lohse when leading off the bottom of the fifth inning.  Said Lohse after the game:

“Same spot,” Lohse noted, referring to his reply pitch. “Wasn’t trying to hit him, though.”

Umpire Greg Gibson quickly popped out from behind the plate, warned both dugouts, and the game went on.

“Well I’ll be danged” I muttered to myself.  All too often this season, opposing pitchers have taken liberties with Cardinal hitters, all-too-conveniently plunking them after a St Louis home run or clutch hit.  For all of the reputation that LaRussa has as a head-hunting manager, I sure haven’t seen any proof this season.  Even in this instance, I don’t believe LaRussa was behind it.  Whether you see it every outing or not, Lohse does have a competitive fire in his stomach, and I’m virtually certain that this buzzer to Volquez was all Kyle’s idea.

So,  no harm no foul, the game plods on to the top of the seventh inning.  That’s when Volquez got too far inside on Felipe Lopez and hit him in the small of the back.  While half-way expecting (and hoping for, because Volquez was cruising) an immediate ejection from home plate umpire Gibson, he made what I still to this day believe was the right call.  The pitch was not intentional.  Lopez took his base, Tony argued a little bit (but you’ll note not much, as you’d think he would if he really believed Volquez wanted to hit him), Volquez remained in the game, and they went on.  The funny thing is that not once did I think to myself “he was throwing at him, he should’ve been tossed.”  And I can admittedly be an over-reactive type, when it comes to things like that.

So, at the end of the day, the Cardinals took a loss, Lohse stood up for himself, and the umpires had gotten it right.  Cooler heads had prevailed.  Or so I thought.

The news came down yesterday that Bob Watson, vice president of on-field operations for MLB, had suspended Lohse for five games.

Um, what?

So for once this season (in the midst of heated battles between ownership and the umpires’ union over replay) your umpires had played their cards right, had let the game be decided by the players and not their rash decisions, and now you’re suspending a guy who wasn’t even kicked out of the game?  Come again?

Lohse, upon learing of his suspension said:

“My intent wasn’t to hit anybody. My intent was to make the opposing pitcher feel as uncomfortable as I did the at-bat before. The way they interpreted it, it seems like they feel I was trying to hit him.”

For a guy who has only 39 walks this season and has hit only two batters, I don’t think I’m too naive to believe that Kyle could have that sort of command of his pitches.  Throw it high and tight, don’t hit him.  To his credit, Volquez responded in kind:

“I don’t know if he really tried to hit me,” he said. “Maybe he was trying to take me out of the game a little bit, and mess with my concentration on the game.”

An excellent deduction.  Volquez was cruising, and Lohse had the ultimate spot and reason to fire off that pitch.  More from Volquez:

“I don’t want to hit a pitcher,” said Volquez, who received no discipline. “If I’m going to hit somebody, it’d be position players. In that situation, that wasn’t on purpose. I had two men on base and two outs. If I hit him, I have to face the No. 9 batter. I just tried to throw inside and the ball went up close to him. I think he got ticked off. That’s part of the game.” [bolding is mine]

Two things strike me here:  First, he’s right, he had nothing to gain by hitting Lohse, and I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, based upon his statistics indicating he can get wild, that he wasn’t trying to hit Lohse.  However, he also says that he thinks Lohse got upset with the pitch regardless, and (at least the way I read it) understands why he might have seen a similar pitch in the bottom of the inning.

That’s part of the game.  Even Dusty Baker was surprised:

“Five games and they didn’t even kick him out of the game. Wow,” Baker said. “The umpires don’t kick him out but the league suspends him. That’s a first, isn’t it? I haven’t seen that.”

Well, apparently not the way Bob Watson sees it.  So in a situation that was completely diffused by the players’ behavior and the calm rationale of the umpiring crew that day, Watson has stepped in and handed down his sentence on Lohse.  Five game suspension and an undisclosed fine.

Of course, Lohse will appeal, and I have to believe that the suspension will be reduced.  SInce he is a starting pitcher, the suspension is likely to have little to no affect on his regular turns in the rotation anyway.  In my mind, that is beside the point.  If Lohse deserved this penalty, Volquez deserved at least the same.  Again, the umpires did not see fit to eject anyone from the game, yet Lohse gets five games and Volquez nothing.  It’s almost as if Volquez is being rewarded for often being wild and having a track record for hitting batters.  Yet I should reiterate, I don’t believe that either player really deserved punishment, but how can you single out one and not the other as well?

Richie Sexson went bonkers earlier this season, charging the mound and throwing his helmet and several punches at a pitcher.  He got six games that was later reduced to five.  How in the world does Lohse’s *almost* hitting a batter come even close to comparing to Richie’s inexplicable display?  Fascinating.

As I said earlier, this will likely (hopefully, assuming that more intelligent heads prevail during the appeal process) be reduced and have little effect on Lohse at all, save for the fine taking a chunk out of his pocketbook.  But the precedent or example being made here is wrong.  Bob Watson needs to let his umpires make the decisions on field, using the knowledge they have of game situations and being in the heat of the moment itself, not by watching on video in his cushy office three days later.

This time the umps got it right.  Maybe they should use instant replay for determining who should be in charge of doling out the suspensions.

Quick observations

Chris Perez is starting to get ‘that look’ when he pitches.  Tonight, he seemed really pissed off that Brandon Phillips got that hit to left, and he took it out on Javier Valentin and Edwin Encarnacion.  The slider was working, the heater was working, the control seemed to be working.  CP63 has got it going on right now, just at the right time.

Is it just me, or is the bullpen starting to take their performance up a notch?

The starting pitchers definitely have taken their performance to a higher level (probably mostly spurred on by trying to keep their spots, with guys returning from the DL - well, at least until today - heal quickly Chris Carpenter.

For those who haven’t been keeping tabs, Felipe Lopez is now hitting .357 since being signed off of waivers.  I’m still not sold, and I’m not convinced he’s the savior - but he’s doing a lot of good things.  He has two triples since coming into the fold.

Brad Thompson scuffled a bit tonight, but pitched admirably in a spot start role.  He was victimized by both a bad throw and a weak defensive play at the plate tonight by Jason LaRue.

Kudos as well to Jaime Garcia - this kid is showing a lot of moxie in an ever-changing role with the Cardinals.  I think I’m going to enjoy seeing him in a full-time rotation spot with the 2009 version of this club.

The damned Cubs appeared to be done in tonight by the Marlins.  Carlos Zambrano got touched up pretty badly again, and the Fish were on their way.  Then Daryle (don’t forget the ‘e’) Ward hit a pinch-hit three-run homer.  This Cubs team reminds me of the ‘06 Cards in the playoffs right now - everything going their way…

Ryan Ludwick appears to have adjusted nicely to a lineup shuffle - he has hit the ball really hard in the two spot the last couple of nights.

Albert Pujols continues his ‘power slump’ - Mang was only three for five tonight with two doubles.  This guy is sick.

Barton to return sooner than later?

Brian Barton has rejoined the Cardinals, but is has not yet been activated.

Technically, the Cardinals could keep him on the disabled list the rest of the season and retain his rights, after choosing him in this past off-season’s Rule 5 Draft.  While I doubt the Cardinal management would go that far just to keep him while letting him sit and watch, they are still gaming the system here to a certain extent.

I would expect Barton to return within the next week or so.  The Cardinals have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks, with enough off days that they should be able to carry one less pitcher.

Who would go down to activate Barton?  Not to mention - what roster move will be made once Adam Wainwright returns from his rehab assignment?

I could see the Cardinals doing one of two things here - I suspect that unless they get an absolute vote of confidence on his shoulder, Chris Carpenter could get sent back on the disabled list, possibly for the rest of the season.  That might be a move to make room for Waino later on though, after they have exhausted all of their options of “rest” for Carp.

I expect that Joe Mather could be the Memphis casualty once Barton is activated.  Despite finally seeming comfortable at the plate against big-league pitching and starting to really show some of the power that we saw from him in Memphis, Mather is seemingly the odd-man out in the Cardinal outfield, especially as LaRussa continues to use Felipe Lopez in left field.

I still think that long-term, Barton may be trade bait for the Cards, but for now he’s not a bad guy to have around.  His element of speed is something the Redbirds certainly lack.

Ultimately, this will only be a two-and-a-half week problem anyway, as I fully expect all of these guys to be with the big club come September 1.

The Cards and the Commandments of Sabermetrics

I’m sure a lot of you have seen this list before, but I just saw it yesterday for the first time, so I’m going to force it upon you again.

Now, obviously Sabermetrics is something not every baseball fan necessarily follows nor understands, but nevertheless, some of the basics ring true for basic baseball knowledge.  That being said, the list I am referring to (and posted below), is a Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics by the widely-acknowledged “father” of Sabermetrics, Bill James.

The Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics
By Bill James

1. Thou Shalt not Bunt.
2. Thou Shalt Have no Low On Base Percentages Before the Cleanup Hitter
3. Honor the three-run homer and the leadoff walk.
4. Thou shalt not steal at anything less than a 70% success rate.
5. Thou shalt make no idol of the light-hitting middle infielder.
6. Thou shalt not count to the credit of the pitcher that which is done by his fielders or by his hitters, nor charge him with their failings.
7. Thou shalt not abuse thy starting pitchers.
8. Thou shalt make no effort to ride the hot hand, for the hot hand is but a shape in the wind.
9. Place thy faith not in veterans, when youth be available to ye.
10. Thou shalt not pass freely thy opponent’s number eight hitter, nor his cleanup hitter, nor his left-handed pinch hitter, nor any hitter that is thy opponent’s.

Read that list once more, and let them all sink in.

Now let’s address this in the view of the Cardinals.

  1. Well, not everyone believes in this, especially playing National League-style baseball.  Good luck trying to convince Tony LaRussa of this one.  Doesn’t necessarily apply.
  2. For their part, the Cardinals are all over .371 OBP from lead-off to cleanup (with the exception of Brian Barton who has the second-most appearances in the lead-off spot this season - which I would’ve never guessed).  Not too shabby.
  3. The Cardinals are still close to the MLB lead in walks and have taken 86 of them leading off an inning.  Pretty good ratio, from my admittedly amateur point of view.  The Cardinal starters have been good about not giving up a lot of walks, but the bullpen has been horrendous.  I wish I could break out how many of the leadoff walks issued by Cardinal pitchers was by the bullpen.  The Cardinals have 13 three-run homers this season out of a total of 133.  Conversely, the pitchers have surrendered 12 three-run shots of a total of 126 allowed.  Not too bad comparatively.
  4. The Redbirds are 56 of 78 this season, good for 71.7%.  An acceptable percentage, but lots of folks (read: the author) would like to see them run more, situationally.
  5. This one is what really got me thinking about this list and how it pertains to the Cardinals.  Let’s go through the litany of players rotated through the St Louis middle infield in recent years.  Aaron Miles, David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan, Miguel Cairo, Felipe Lopez, Hector Luna, and on and on.  You could go back many years to find a middle infielder with much pop.  Edgar Renteria is the closest in recent history that I can think of.
  6. This one really hasn’t applied to the Cardinals until the last week or so as fielding goes, as their defense has been pretty impressive team-wise, a good reason for their success to date.  You could argue that the offense has had its share of unimpressive performances, leading to undue losses for the pitching staff - but I might extend this commandment a bit further to include not faulting the starting pitchers who have been victimized by the bullpen allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate.
  7. LaRussa and Duncan have a minor tendency to push starting pitchers beyond their limits and not pull them at signs of distress and trouble getting hitters out.  In their defense, it is hard to justify pulling  a starter who has cruised through six innings only to go to questionable arms (and mental states) in the bullpen.  To look at this a different way, you could argue that the pitchers have been abused by the consistent letdowns of the bullpen, costing them wins.  The Cards’ ‘pen has 25 losses on the season, exacerbated by 27 blown saves, the most in MLB.
  8. Tony and his merry band of Redbirds would never be accused of riding a hot hand.  It took almost two months before Ryan Ludwick could find himself a regular spot in the lineup, and all he’s done is put up MVP-quality numbers this season.
  9. This appears to be the biggest Cardinal sin (yuk yuk) committed this season (well, and who am I kidding, every other season in LaRussa’s tenure).  The same bullpen retreads are run out every night while youngsters like Chris Perez are “forced to earn their keep” or “made to earn their job” while guys like Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Franklin seemingly can’t do anything horrible enough to lose theirs.  Jason Motte has been filthy on the mound at triple-A Memphis this season, but can’t get a sniff with the big club, despite the massive amounts of shuffling being done this year.  Meanwhile, Kelvin Jimenez continues to get call-ups.  There appears to be a real rift in the organization between what the front office of John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow are trying to accomplish and what Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan want to trot out on the field every night.  Anthony Reyes pitched brilliantly for Cleveland the other night, was anyone surprised?  They allowed him to pitch how he was comfortable pitching and he had a great outing.  It will be interesting to see where this team goes next season as more youth is developed and more of the stopgap veteran players depart.  It will be perhaps even more interesting seeing what LaRussa does following next year, when is contract comes due again.
  10. This one kind of follows with number one - I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would buy into this philosophy - especially if they had to face Albert Pujols at any point.  Of course, this also takes on special meaning when applied to a team facing the Cardinals, because as we all know - Pitchers Hit Eighth.

What does all this mean?  Eh, virtually nothing, other than I found the list interesting and thought I could throw together some entertaining comparisons and ideas as they apply to the Cardinals.

How would you apply these axioms of Sabermetrics to the hometown club?  Leave a note below…

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