A few more UCB Roundtable discussions

Catch up on some more UCB banter at these following blogs:

Haedar at Redbird Ramblings asked about the Cards’ 2009 bullpen.

Bert Flex addressed the potential of the Cardinal outfield in 2009.

Pip at Fungoes brought up one of the more interesting topics of the round, wanting input on the ‘fan experience’ at Busch III.

I’m next!

Save McClellan for next year

I think it’s time to start thinking about shutting Kyle McClellan down (if he’s not unofficially done anyway) for the season, albeit what little is left of it.

Kyle had another rough outing on Tuesday night, surrendering three runs in one-third of an inning.

Unfortunately, this type of appearance has become all too common in recent months for KMac, a guy who really carried this bullpen through the months of June and July when they were struggling the most.

August and September have been a different story for the rookie. McClellan posted an ERA of 5.59 in the month of August, in only 9.2 innings pitched. September has been even worse, with a 12.79 ERA in 6.1 innings. Compare these months to 15.2, 12.1, 16, and 14.2 innings pitched in April, May, June, and July, respectively and you see the beginning of a pattern.

McClellan is tired, and fading as badly as the Cardinals in the Wild Card race.

You’ll remember from a previous diatribe here by yours truly that McClellan has had multiple surgeries on his throwing elbow:

He had Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in July 2005 after being moved to the bullpen in Quad Cities in May after struggling as a starter. He came back briefly in August of 2006 to make 3 rehab starts with Johnson City (which lasted a total of 7 innings combined) before having to go back under the knife, this time for ulnar nerve surgery to move a nerve somewhat related to the Tommy John procedure.

So following those procedures, McClellan pitched as a reliever for one year in the minor leagues, 29 innings at Palm Beach and 30.2 at Springfield. So prior to becoming a big-league reliever, he was a reliever for all of 59.2 innings, at a level no higher than AA.

Conveniently (and not coincidentally, I would argue), McClellan hit the 59.2 innings pitched mark this season on August 3rd.  His ERA through those innings?  2.87, while surrendering 58 hits over those innings and walking only 17.

Since that appearance on August 3rd, McClellan has pitched 15 more innings to date.  His ERA during that period of time is a whopping 8.40.  He has allowed 20 hits, and given up 8 walks in that span.  His ERA for the season has shot up from 2.87 on August 3rd to 3.98.

In those 15 innings, McClellan has only made two appearances in which he did not allow a hit - in both of those he surrendered a walk.  McClellan has allowed a base runner in all 13 appearances he has made since August 3rd.

It appears KMac has hit his breaking point.  Really, it’s been worse than that, if you string him out another couple of appearances.  August 3rd is the 59.2 inning cut off, but his three appearances following that (August 5th, August 8th, and August 11th) he allowed zero runs.  Take those out of the equation, and his ERA is 11.45 in his last 10 appearances.  That’s a far cry from the shutdown middle relief guy Cardinal fans fell in love with in the first four months of the season.

I think the Cardinals need to protect their investment here in a kid who can really project to be a cornerstone of their bullpen for years to come.  McClellan has electric stuff when he’s on (and rested and healthy).  He has a good repertoire of pitches with which to get hitters out.  But he also has a balky elbow.  Why risk it?

Yet this is not the worst news - rumor persists that McClellan will get a shot at the Cardinals 2009 starting rotation.  I can’t believe the Cardinals would be so short-sighted.  Yeah, fine, you got great mileage out of Braden Looper as a starter (and he’s about to cash in as a result - think Jeff Suppan money, you watch).  Todd Wellemeyer has had varying degrees of success converting to starter.  But why keep playing this game of Russian Roulette?  The Cardinals should have an abundance of options for the rotation next season coming out of Spring Training, especially if John Mozeliak is as aggressive as he says he’ll be, and brings in another front line starter.

Get McClellan’s off-season rest and strengthening program started early, Redbirds.  And for gosh sakes, just get him conditioned to throw 70 innings a year before you start thinking about trying to get him to throw 160.

Beat the Pirates

That’s really all the Cardinals had to do this season, with any sort of regularity, to be staring a playoff berth right in the eyes.

Sure, 5-10 against the Brewers hasn’t done them any favors either (and 2-4 against the Royals, and 3-4 against the Giants).

They’ve had their other opportunities, they’ve had many chances to sweep series after winning the first two games only to get blown out in the final game (usually with a hamstrung lineup because of Tony’s ‘getaway day’ setups and a taxed bullpen).  They’ve struggled with injuries, but mostly persevered and sometimes thrived on being the underdog and the ‘pest’.

Please don’t view this post as negative, rather, it is one of lament.

All they had to do was consistently beat the Pirates.  Yet this afternoon, the Cards stand at 7-8 versus the Pittsburgh squad this season.  A team that is 61-86 on the season has bested the Cardinals 8 times in 15 games.  A team that traded away guys like Jason Bay and Xavier Nady at the trade deadline has routinely put a beating on the Redbirds this season.

To wit:

  1. The Cardinals have surrendered double digit runs in a game only eight times this season.  Four of those were against the Pirates.
  2. The Pirates have scored 90 runs against the Cardinals in 15 games this season.  To put that in perspective, the Brewers have scored only 74 against the Cards in the same number of games.  That’s a difference of over a run per game.
  3. Albeit highly unscientific, if the Pirates played the Cardinals at a .411 clip to match their season win percentage, they win 6 games instead of 8.  That puts the Cardinals only 2.5 games back, with the Brewers still having 6 to play against the Cubs.

I know, I know - woulda, coulda, shoulda.  If the Cardinals had anything resembling a Major League bullpen for the first half of the year, this is all a moot point as well.

Again, I’m not being negative - it’s just a disappointing way to look at the Cards’ performance as this season winds down.  Hopefully Adam Wainwright can get them back on track this evening.

Yes, Houston, we copy. We just lost the Wild Card.

Well, that’s really where it all began, isn’t it?

I apologize for my longer than anticipated absence, and in some ways, I’m not that sorry.  I barely got to see any Cardinal baseball while I’ve been on ‘hiatus’, and that’s seemingly been a good thing.  I hate to go down the path of pessimist, but it’s high time to face the music.

If only managing three of five from Atlanta and Pittsburgh didn’t do it…

If only managing a split with Milwaukee didn’t do it…

Then a sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros surely did this Cardinal post-season drive in.

As if that weren’t enough, the Cardinals wind up dropping two games to the D’Backs (I hate their jerseys and logos by the way) that they should’ve won.

The bullpen has reared its ugly head again.  Kyle McClellan has continued to impress and confound in equal and opposite amounts as the season drags on.  Rumors still abound that he should arrive at Spring Training 2009 prepared to take on a starting rotation spot.  And what if he fails?  Then will he be shuttled back to the bullpen, completely unprepared for a role that he should remain in?  Sounds eerily familiar for this organization.

Chris Perez suffered his first major failure tonight since taking over the ‘ninth inning pitcher’ role (he’s clearly still not the closer).  How will this leave the youngster’s standing in the mind of manager Tony LaRussa?  Tony’s obviously been prone to leaving guys to work their own issues out on the mound this season, but he’s also shown a real proclivity not to trust young pitchers in virtually any situation.  Will Perez be afforded the opportunity to learn on the job, and have the same ups-and-downs as his predecessors?

Rick Ankiel is still struggling with his oblique injury.  Why the team refuses to shut this guy down, I will never know.  This situation is dragging on eerily similar to Chris Duncan’s sports hernia last year.  We all know how that turned out.  Why not shut Ankiel down now, give him an extra month of off-season, and allow him to return to camp next season fully rested?  It’s not as if he’s playing full-time now, with the injury, so what’s the harm in shutting him down now?

Jaime Garcia’s elbow injury is seemingly going to make way for a more wide-open fifth starter competition next season.  Garcia is likely headed for a TJ, hopefully sooner than later.  His mechanics have kind of forecasted this type of injury to come, and naturally, the Cardinal staff did nothing about it.

Have I covered all of the negative issues this week?  Nope…

Chris Carpenter is returning to the big club as a reliever.  JUST SHUT HIM DOWN.  Do it.  It’s clear by the shoulder strain, by the front office’s “management” of the situation, and by Carp’s own reaction to being sent to the bullpen (he didn’t seem too happy about it) that he is not yet right.  Same deal as with Ankiel in my mind.  If Carp is not ready to be a starter (which the Cardinals are paying him handsomely to do), then he should be in rehab or on the shelf until he is ready to do so.  If that means he’s not back until Opening Day 2009, then so be it.  It is not worth the Cardinals’ entire investment in this guy to see him reinjure an elbow or shoulder throwing as hard as he can out of the ‘pen the rest of this season.

Finally, I don’t think the Brewers/Phillies/Mets can lose enough between now and the end of the season for the Cards to sneak in anymore.  I’d love to be proved wrong.

There.  I’ve said my pieces about the last few days/week.

Congrats to Jason Motte on a successful debut against Arizona.  Here’s hoping that the Motte-Perez combo is one we can enjoy for some time.

Izzy Injured

You’ve probably all heard by now that Jason Isringhausen’s tenure as a Cardinal is likely coming to an end with the announcement of a torn flexor muscle and inflammation in his elbow.

I had previously speculated that Izzy had an undisclosed injury so this announcement comes as no surprise. The question is again one of disclosure. Was Izzy hiding this injury from the Cardinals in an attempt to achieve the 300 save milestone, or was the Cardinal organization hiding it? And how long has this been a lingering concern? Certainly Izzy was feeling discomfort and making a game effort to contribute to the club and pitch through the pain.

I for one applaud all that Izzy has done for the Cardinals. He has had a tremendous impact and despite a few injury plagued seasons where he wasn’t effective, he has been the reliable stopper that a team needs to have winning seasons.

Izzy left Oakland as a free agent and was signed by the Cardinals prior to the 2002 season. From 2002 through 2005 Izzy accumulated 140 Saves, 8W, 7L, 231K, 86BB, 175HA, in 241.2IP. Despite recent memory suggesting he would walk runners or always seem to have men on base, his W+H/IP ratio was around 1 except for the injury plagued year of 2006 and of course this year, seemingly another injury plagued year.

During his post season career Izzy pitched in 23 games earning 1 win and 11 saves with a 2.36 ERA. He pitched in 26 2/3 innings allowing 17 hits and 12 walks while striking out 23.

2006 seemed to be the turning point for Izzy and Cardinal Nation. We didn’t realize the extent of the injury that Izzy was dealing with and all we saw was one terrible performance after another. Hiding the injury hurt the relationship with the fans and did nothing to make him more effective against the opponents. Last year he rebounded nicely, but you had to wonder whether the hip would hold up. Turns out the elbow dealt the final blow. Yes, Izzy may still pitch again, but hard to imagine any scenario where he returns to the Cardinals next year given his huge salary.

So I guess it’s time to turn all of our attention to Mr. Chris Perez and see how he meaures up to the closer role. He will have big shoes to fill. I will conclude by saying that this recent announcement of Izzy’s injury has me a bit more concerned with the status of Chris Carpenter and even Adam Wainwright. How often did we hear the positive news about Mark Mulder and Matt Clement just to be frustrated when learning how far away they really were from joining any major league rotation.

The Cards and the Commandments of Sabermetrics

I’m sure a lot of you have seen this list before, but I just saw it yesterday for the first time, so I’m going to force it upon you again.

Now, obviously Sabermetrics is something not every baseball fan necessarily follows nor understands, but nevertheless, some of the basics ring true for basic baseball knowledge.  That being said, the list I am referring to (and posted below), is a Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics by the widely-acknowledged “father” of Sabermetrics, Bill James.

The Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics
By Bill James

1. Thou Shalt not Bunt.
2. Thou Shalt Have no Low On Base Percentages Before the Cleanup Hitter
3. Honor the three-run homer and the leadoff walk.
4. Thou shalt not steal at anything less than a 70% success rate.
5. Thou shalt make no idol of the light-hitting middle infielder.
6. Thou shalt not count to the credit of the pitcher that which is done by his fielders or by his hitters, nor charge him with their failings.
7. Thou shalt not abuse thy starting pitchers.
8. Thou shalt make no effort to ride the hot hand, for the hot hand is but a shape in the wind.
9. Place thy faith not in veterans, when youth be available to ye.
10. Thou shalt not pass freely thy opponent’s number eight hitter, nor his cleanup hitter, nor his left-handed pinch hitter, nor any hitter that is thy opponent’s.

Read that list once more, and let them all sink in.

Now let’s address this in the view of the Cardinals.

  1. Well, not everyone believes in this, especially playing National League-style baseball.  Good luck trying to convince Tony LaRussa of this one.  Doesn’t necessarily apply.
  2. For their part, the Cardinals are all over .371 OBP from lead-off to cleanup (with the exception of Brian Barton who has the second-most appearances in the lead-off spot this season - which I would’ve never guessed).  Not too shabby.
  3. The Cardinals are still close to the MLB lead in walks and have taken 86 of them leading off an inning.  Pretty good ratio, from my admittedly amateur point of view.  The Cardinal starters have been good about not giving up a lot of walks, but the bullpen has been horrendous.  I wish I could break out how many of the leadoff walks issued by Cardinal pitchers was by the bullpen.  The Cardinals have 13 three-run homers this season out of a total of 133.  Conversely, the pitchers have surrendered 12 three-run shots of a total of 126 allowed.  Not too bad comparatively.
  4. The Redbirds are 56 of 78 this season, good for 71.7%.  An acceptable percentage, but lots of folks (read: the author) would like to see them run more, situationally.
  5. This one is what really got me thinking about this list and how it pertains to the Cardinals.  Let’s go through the litany of players rotated through the St Louis middle infield in recent years.  Aaron Miles, David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan, Miguel Cairo, Felipe Lopez, Hector Luna, and on and on.  You could go back many years to find a middle infielder with much pop.  Edgar Renteria is the closest in recent history that I can think of.
  6. This one really hasn’t applied to the Cardinals until the last week or so as fielding goes, as their defense has been pretty impressive team-wise, a good reason for their success to date.  You could argue that the offense has had its share of unimpressive performances, leading to undue losses for the pitching staff - but I might extend this commandment a bit further to include not faulting the starting pitchers who have been victimized by the bullpen allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate.
  7. LaRussa and Duncan have a minor tendency to push starting pitchers beyond their limits and not pull them at signs of distress and trouble getting hitters out.  In their defense, it is hard to justify pulling  a starter who has cruised through six innings only to go to questionable arms (and mental states) in the bullpen.  To look at this a different way, you could argue that the pitchers have been abused by the consistent letdowns of the bullpen, costing them wins.  The Cards’ ‘pen has 25 losses on the season, exacerbated by 27 blown saves, the most in MLB.
  8. Tony and his merry band of Redbirds would never be accused of riding a hot hand.  It took almost two months before Ryan Ludwick could find himself a regular spot in the lineup, and all he’s done is put up MVP-quality numbers this season.
  9. This appears to be the biggest Cardinal sin (yuk yuk) committed this season (well, and who am I kidding, every other season in LaRussa’s tenure).  The same bullpen retreads are run out every night while youngsters like Chris Perez are “forced to earn their keep” or “made to earn their job” while guys like Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Franklin seemingly can’t do anything horrible enough to lose theirs.  Jason Motte has been filthy on the mound at triple-A Memphis this season, but can’t get a sniff with the big club, despite the massive amounts of shuffling being done this year.  Meanwhile, Kelvin Jimenez continues to get call-ups.  There appears to be a real rift in the organization between what the front office of John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow are trying to accomplish and what Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan want to trot out on the field every night.  Anthony Reyes pitched brilliantly for Cleveland the other night, was anyone surprised?  They allowed him to pitch how he was comfortable pitching and he had a great outing.  It will be interesting to see where this team goes next season as more youth is developed and more of the stopgap veteran players depart.  It will be perhaps even more interesting seeing what LaRussa does following next year, when is contract comes due again.
  10. This one kind of follows with number one - I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would buy into this philosophy - especially if they had to face Albert Pujols at any point.  Of course, this also takes on special meaning when applied to a team facing the Cardinals, because as we all know - Pitchers Hit Eighth.

What does all this mean?  Eh, virtually nothing, other than I found the list interesting and thought I could throw together some entertaining comparisons and ideas as they apply to the Cardinals.

How would you apply these axioms of Sabermetrics to the hometown club?  Leave a note below…

One outing does not a closer make

Fresh off of a two-inning, one hit, no runs performance yesterday afternoon, Jason Isringhausen is hopefully feeling a little better about himself.

I hope that Tony doesn’t feel the same. Sure, Izzy finally put together some pitches, even throwing most for strikes. This does not in the slightest form mean that he should be allowed back near the closer’s role. LaRussa has maintained that he will employ a closer-by-committee approach, but that committee should not in the near future (or perhaps ever again) include Isringhausen.

Yesterday’s outing for Izzy was a good sign, nothing more, nothing less. It came with the Cards already facing a 4-1 deficit, the Cardinal offense rendered inept by Dodgers rookie Clayton Kershaw. Kyle Lohse pitched admirably in taking his fourth loss of the season, and giving further rest to this bullpen by logging another seven inning start.

Isringhausen threw twenty-five pitches in his two innings of work yesterday, with and astonishing twenty of them for strikes, even striking out three. This is a huge step in the right direction. Izzy seemed more relaxed out there (no doubt aided by the “no pressure” situation, knowing he couldn’t take the loss) and more confident in his pitches.

I believe that if he really refocuses, lets go of the prospect of returning to closer this season, lets go of the 300 save plateau that, at this point, seems just out of reach - he can still be a contributor for this ‘pen. Think of him in the seventh or eighth inning, with a little less pressure than the closer role, and Ryan Franklin opposite him in the other inning. Folks have quickly forgotten how effective Franklin was in the setup role before Isringhausen went on the DL and he was thrust into the closer role. At this point, it seems safe to say that Izzy and Franklin will be with this team for the duration, so rabid haters can bag their “DFA them” routine. If Izzy can build on yesterday’s outing, I would love to see him get the ball in the seventh or eighth. Sprinkle in some Kyle McClellan and Russ Springer and those two innings could, dare I say, turn into positives for this club.

Think about it this way. The starting rotation is beginning to pick up its game - Braden Looper is going for his third straight seven inning start today in Chicago. Lohse has been routinely going seven. Joel Pineiro went seven on Wednesday, perhaps feeling the pressure of the return of the Cards’ top two starters, Chris Carpenter (who looked like he could’ve gone nine Tuesday night, if not for rain) and Adam Wainwright.

Spun the right way, I really do believe that LaRussa can make shine out of spit here. The less work the bullpen has to do in the coming weeks, the more flexibility he has. Izzy comes in and walks the first batter? No worries, yank him for Springer. Ron Villone gets a lefty in the seventh, Jaime Garcia gets one in the eighth. They could even employ a bullpen rotation of sorts (obviously there are a lot more variables than I’m caring to acknowledge here, but…) where Isringhausen gets the seventh one day, and McClellan the next. Springer gets the eighth one day, and Franklin the next.

You’ll notice I have yet to discuss the ninth. Chris Perez has got to be the man. The ninth inning should be his to lose at this point. Now, that being said, the same opinion I issued for Isringhausen earlier applies to Perez here. One outing does not a closer make, but damn was CP63 impressive on Wednesday. He’s got to continue to do it, but if that save didn’t instill confidence in LaRussa and Dave Duncan to use him in that role, the kid is up against it worse than I thought. Isringhausen and Franklin have been offered the chance to fail over and over again this season, so I would hope that the same opportunity would be extended to Perez. Sure, he’s going to struggle at some point - but let him work through it.

I’d love to see this trial by fire be Perez’s audition for the 2009 closer role. Imagine the flexibilty offered to John Mozeliak in the off-season, with arguably a lot of free agent cash to throw around, if he has his closer locked down at the league minimum before spring training even starts. I cherish the thought.

So, with all of this said - I guess you can put me squarely in the glass-half-full camp. I’m still just like any other Cards fan, I cringe when the bullpen comes in with a “less-than-one-swing-lead”. Anything less than five runs, I’m wary. Yet I think there is a real opportunity here for LaRussa to do the right thing. Sticking with Perez in the closer role seems to just set the rest of the bullpen up almost too nicely. We’ve seen what Isringhausen can do with the pressure off - give him some more two or three runs down (or preferably six or seven runs up) situations to get the kinks worked out, then install him in that almost as valuable setup role. Let Franklin throw some earlier innings no runners on to get his head straight, and then let him loose back in what should’ve been his role all season.

This just might work out yet, kids…

Joel Pineiro and seven innings

Cardinal starting pitcher Joel Pineiro gave the team a much needed seven inning start last night against the Dodgers.  Pineiro wasn’t particularly sharp early, surrendering three runs in the first three innings, but the big Cardinal fourth inning - puntuated by back-to-back home runs by Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick (is there an internal MVP race heating up?) - seemed to settle Pineiro down.  He pitched well from the third on, allowing another run in the seventh before being pinch-hit for in the bottom of the seventh.

It led me to wonder (because my memory is apparently that short) how often Pineiro had gone seven this season, if at all.  He has been so pedestrian of late, I found it hard to recall.  Much to my surprise, tonight was his sixth seven inning start in nineteen total games started.  One was a mercy killing, with LaRussa allowing him to take a beating from the Royals in order to rest a weary bullpen.  In each of the other four previous starts, Pineiro allowed two runs or fewer.  His ERA in those 35 2/3 innings of work?  2.78.  Heck, if you take away the start where he probably should’ve been pulled, the ERA number drops to a miserly 1.29 over four starts.  He only got two wins out of those four, but that’s another story that we’ve all heard too many times.

Now, obviously it stands to reason that if he is in the game that long, he is probably pitching well, but we’ve seen plenty of pitchers try to go deep only to take a beating late in the start.  The difference is, that the Pineiro we’ve seen of late is not even giving his team a chance to win.  The 7 2/3 he pitched when giving up the seven earned runs versus KC was the last time he’d gone seven, on June 27th.  Since then, in his last six starts, he has one start in which he pitched 6 1/3 scoreless against the Phillies, but gave up at least three in his other five starts.  His four most recent starts, not including tonight, he hadn’t gone longer than six innings, he surrendered ten hits in each, and compiled an 8.31 ERA.  Not exactly the stuff that I think the Cardinals were expecting when they gave him a two-year deal this past off-season.

Could Pineiro be feeling the heat with the return of Chris Carpenter and the impending return of Adam Wainwright?

Pineiro has previously stated his distaste for coming out of the bullpen, so is it possible that he’s going to actually bear down and concentrate?  Try to be a solid guy at the back end of the rotation?

Let’s think about the Cardinal rotation for a minute.  Carp has almost locked his spot down as the returning ace.  Kyle Lohse is clearly entrenched in his spot.  I’m still convinced that the Cardinals will do the right thing and return Waino to the rotation instead of bowing to pressure and making him the closer, despite reports to the contrary.  Chris Perez should be in that role until he does something Jason Isringhausen-like.  Todd Wellemeyer did well last time out, and could hopefully be over his elbow/arm fatigue issues for the stretch run (wouldn’t we all love to see another May out of Welley?).

That leaves one spot for two guys, Pineiro and Braden Looper.  Looper has stepped up his game with back-to-back seven inning starts.  Could we be seeing some old-fashioned, good-natured competition here between Joel and Braden?

The rotation sets up for Looper to start in Chicago against the Cubs and Pineiro in Florida against the Marlins, both crucial games if the Cardinals are to remain relevant in the Central Division and NL Wild Card races.  Is it possible that as these guys battle each other to retain their respective rotation spots, they could drive each other to help this team win some really big games in the next two weeks?

Only the Cardinals win in that scenario… (as long as it doesn’t make them feel like Wainwright is expendable from the rotation).

Next Page →