Catching up with the Cardinals’ off-season

So I’ve been biding my time, waiting, watching, allowing the news to come to me. As I’m sure my loyal readers know (all three of you), it’s been eerily quiet.

Let’s catch up with the goings on…

Braden Looper: To sign or not to sign?

That is a question on many a Cards fan’s tongue as the season winds to a close.

As Braden Looper prepares to take the mound tonight, in the Cardinals’ final series of this wildly entertaining (and similarly frustrating) season, it could be his final appearance wearing the Birds-on-the-Bat.

It can be argued that Looper’s conversion from reliever to starter has been a rousing success.  Braden has posted a 24-26 record over the last two seasons, sporting a 4.49 ERA.  Perhaps just as importantly, Looper has averaged 183.1 IP over two seasons, a number that is obviously certain to increase based upon tonight’s start.  Durability has become a very valuable commodity among starting pitchers, and Looper has been durable while at times showing flashes of brilliance.

Looper is 33 years old, not young by any stretch, but by today’s pitching standards certainly not ready to hang ‘em up either.  Again, even at age 33, Looper has shown no signs of serious arm trouble, fatigue, or losing his stuff.  In fact, it could reasonably be argued that Looper is still settling in to being a starter, still learning how to manage a game, etc.

The Cardinals find themselves in an all-too-familiar precarious position heading into 2009.  It is safe to say that most Cardinal fans have adopted Adam Wainwright as the de facto ace of this pitching staff, with Chris Carpenter’s status again up in the air, depending on his pitching shoulder.  That leaves Joel Pineiro and the arbitration-eligible Todd Wellemeyer as the only remaining holdovers from this year’s rotation.  That means there are two spots to fill, because I will go ahead and pretty much guarantee you that John Mozeliak is not going to pay what Scott Boras wants for Kyle Lohse after the Cards resurrected his career in 2008.

So what to make of Looper in the situation?  It would be foolish at this point, given history, for the Cardinals to count on Carpenter for any sort of contribution in 2009.  They were burned by that premise this season, and can ill afford to do so again.  So that leaves Waino, Pineiro, and Wellemeyer.  The Cardinals have indicated that a top-flight starting pitcher is atop their wish list this off-season, and with a lot of expiring salary to spend, one would hope they could accomplish that goal.

So assuming that they sign someone to fill a #2 or #3 slot in the rotation, that still leaves one more open slot.  Jaime Garcia seemed to have the inside track to the best shot at filling it, but he is now facing a long-term absence with a Tommy John elbow procedure.  Mike Parisi didn’t impress starting at the big-league level.  Mitchell Boggs could fill the spot in a stopgap role, but I’m not sure the Cards are ready to hand him the job full-time just yet.  Chances are that someone could impress at Spring Training a la Kyle McClellan, but by that time the ship will have sailed on most other available free agent starting pitchers.  (Notice that I’m not even giving any credence to the idea of McClellan starting?)

So again I ask, how does Looper potentially fill in?  I have to admit that I hated his deal when the Cardinals originally signed him.  I thought they were paying far too much to a guy who wasn’t going to be a closer, and for that matter hadn’t been 3 years/$13.5 million worth of impressive as a reliever period.  In hindsight, his deal (from Cot’s Baseball Contracts):

Braden Looper rhp
3 years/$13.5M (2006-08)

  • signed as a free agent 12/05
  • 06:$3.5M, 07:$4.5M, 08:$5.5M
  • $1M annually in performance bonuses (GF & other categories)

hasn’t been too bad.  Obviously, had Looper known he was going to be starting those last two seasons, he may have negotiated differently.  Therein lies a big part of the problem with resigning Looper, however.  Loop is bound to command far more than the $5.5M he’s earning this season as a starter next year.  He has professed his preference to remain a starter, and I’m sure some team, whether the Cardinals or not, is sure to oblige.

So what could Looper be looking at for a payday?  Given his age, I can only assume he’d be shooting for another three year contract.  Certainly within reason.  The money is a bit more cloudy.  He has, after all, only been a starter for two seasons.

One quick comparison that is easy to make is Pineiro.  Joel has struggled this season both with injuries and on the mound.  He has given the Cardinals far less than Looper at around the same payday ($5M for Pineiro).  The difference is that Pineiro has another year on his deal at $7.5M.  So let’s assume that’s at the very least a jumping off point for Looper.  Can the Cardinals afford to sink that much into a guy at the back end (maybe #3) of their rotation?  I’ve argued all season that the Cardinals have more needs to fix than just one or two arms or positions (please stop with this ridiculous ‘Cardinals should sign Francisco Rodriguez stuff).

So is it worth the Cardinals to give Loop somewhere from $7.5M-$9M for the next three years?  I’m not sure what I think, but I know Looper has earned my respect by how he has taken on this new challenge in his career.  It’s soon to make him a much more wealthy man.

Beat the Pirates

That’s really all the Cardinals had to do this season, with any sort of regularity, to be staring a playoff berth right in the eyes.

Sure, 5-10 against the Brewers hasn’t done them any favors either (and 2-4 against the Royals, and 3-4 against the Giants).

They’ve had their other opportunities, they’ve had many chances to sweep series after winning the first two games only to get blown out in the final game (usually with a hamstrung lineup because of Tony’s ‘getaway day’ setups and a taxed bullpen).  They’ve struggled with injuries, but mostly persevered and sometimes thrived on being the underdog and the ‘pest’.

Please don’t view this post as negative, rather, it is one of lament.

All they had to do was consistently beat the Pirates.  Yet this afternoon, the Cards stand at 7-8 versus the Pittsburgh squad this season.  A team that is 61-86 on the season has bested the Cardinals 8 times in 15 games.  A team that traded away guys like Jason Bay and Xavier Nady at the trade deadline has routinely put a beating on the Redbirds this season.

To wit:

  1. The Cardinals have surrendered double digit runs in a game only eight times this season.  Four of those were against the Pirates.
  2. The Pirates have scored 90 runs against the Cardinals in 15 games this season.  To put that in perspective, the Brewers have scored only 74 against the Cards in the same number of games.  That’s a difference of over a run per game.
  3. Albeit highly unscientific, if the Pirates played the Cardinals at a .411 clip to match their season win percentage, they win 6 games instead of 8.  That puts the Cardinals only 2.5 games back, with the Brewers still having 6 to play against the Cubs.

I know, I know - woulda, coulda, shoulda.  If the Cardinals had anything resembling a Major League bullpen for the first half of the year, this is all a moot point as well.

Again, I’m not being negative - it’s just a disappointing way to look at the Cards’ performance as this season winds down.  Hopefully Adam Wainwright can get them back on track this evening.

John Mozeliak dishes the dirt

Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak conducted a live chat via STLToday.com on Wednesday (it was apparently the second such appearance he’s made over there).

I just saw it for the first time yesterday, and I have to say that I was surprised.  Not by the typical Cardinal organization ‘non-answer/generalizations’ like this one:

Jason Winders: Greetings, JM. After watching the Cardinals’ big league talent slide every year since the final out of the 2004 World Series, I gotta ask what it will be this off season: “Market gone crazy” or “Keeping our powder dry” for that trade deadline 2009 pickup?

Be straight with us, JM, we won’t hate you.

But the fans are growing tired of these lines. Why does the Cardinals front office/ownership refuse to play it straight with fans regarding everything from injures to trades? We’re suckers, we’ll still buy tickets.

John Mozeliak: My hope is that I am straight with all of you (but specifically YOU) now saying that I look at this off-season as an opportunity to build on this year, we will have a stronger rotation and and our outfield will have a full year of experience. I do think we need to look for more offense from the middle infield and also add left-handed to strengthen our pen.

But if I fail to deliever it was not from being straight or candid…it was from not getting a deal done.

Now, I’m not completely naive - I know that he surely can’t dish out the Cards’ blueprint for the off-season, but I thought the question about being dodgy with injury reports, etc was a valid one, even if the seeming non-response was expected.

All of that aside, lots of Mo’s responses caught my eye.  At the risk of duplication, here are a few:

Steve Earp: Mr. Mo, who can we expect to see showcased from our increasingly, majestic farm system come September? Will you offer Cards fans a taste of the future with Rasmus, Wallace, Anderson, D. Jones, Freese, Barden, Greene, et al? BTW, thanks for being disciplined at the deadline.

John Mozeliak: I have a meeting scheduled for Friday to determine who we think deserves the call-ups. I have laid out certian criteria that I feel needs to be met before we begin the promotion process. I do think we will benefit from the expanded rosters. At this point I will wait until everyone has had a chance to weigh in before making any public annoucement. Our young players have had a strong year and that is good news for Cardinal fans.

Not terribly shocking, but refreshing to know that Cardinal management is on the same page with a lot of fans.  They have forty slots available come September 1.  I would hope that we will see, at the very least: Colby Rasmus, Brian Barden, and Jason Motte.  This is not to mention the guys who have already flip-flopped this season like Nick Stavinoha, Mark Worrell, Mitchell Boggs, and Brendan Ryan.  Hell, we may even see guys like Kelvin Jimenez and Josh Phelps get some love.

This one is interesting for a couple of reasons:

BDAx2: Mr. Mozaliak,

Thank you for doing these chats..it obviously goes above and beyond your duties.

3 REALLY quick questions

1. Where do you realistically envision Colby Rasmus April 1, 2009?
2. Assume Carp and Waino healthy to start 2009, do you see a need to try and go outside the organization to add to the major league starting rotation in the offseason?
3. Do you see the SS position as a position where you are willing to accept below league average offense in exhcange for above league average defense?

John Mozeliak: 1. Rasmus will likely find himself competing for a major league job next spring, where he starts will be based on how he performs.
2. Looking at our ‘09 rotation of Carp, Waino, Wellemeyer, and Pineiro it would make sense to add another arm. I do like what we have seen from Boggs but I do not want to rush him if we do not have to.
3. I would prefer above average offense and above average defense…that is much more desirable.

I’m glad to see the response to the first question.  Rasmus should get a shot, and I suspect he’ll wind up on the roster as the team heads north next spring.  Answer two is kind of another ‘duh’ answer - “we’ll add a pitcher if we see fit” - thanks for the insight.  And number three was another ‘duh’.  Great Mo, Cards fans would love to see that too, except there are only about three of those playing professional baseball right now.  Ok, so maybe only one of those answers was interesting for a good reason.

Finally, this was the one that spurred me to write this post.  This answer speaks volumes, in this scribe’s humble opinion:

Steve: Have you announced who will be replacing Izzy on the roster yet??

John Mozeliak: We have not made a roster as of today and with the off tomorrow it will likely wait until Friday.
Izzy had a great career with the Cardinals, he cared and wanted to compete at a high level. It is a disappointing ending but if he decides to pitch again, I only wish him the best.

Jason Isringhausen *had* a great career with the Cardinals?  I’m not saying I disagree, or that I’m upset at the implication that statement makes, but *had*?  That’s a major league slip of the tongue at this stage of the season and shortly after his injury, don’t you think Mo?  Especially with your manager apparently stumping for Izzy to rehab and pitch again next season?  You’re wishing him the best *if* he decides to pitch again, and wishing him the best?  Sounds like Mo has turned the page…

I’m not saying that Mo is wrong.  I suspect the Cardinal chapter has ended for Izzy’s career, regardless of whether his career has ended or not.  But it strikes me as unorthodox to make that statement now, with the guy, one who had a lot better career wearing the Birds-on-the-Bat than most fans will remember, perhaps riding off into the sunset.  It’s important for Cardinals fans to remember the good Izzy, the one who was dominant from 2002-2005.  Not the injury-plagued struggle it was for Izzy to even pitch, much less succeed in the last two or three seasons.

One way or another, this organization is clearly poised to move on with young players coming up through the system.  The self-sustaining program is likely going to be a must for the Cardinal organization going forward, and they have a great start on it.  I think it’s important though, not to forget those who have gotten the franchise to such an elite status in the Major League Baseball annals.  Let’s celebrate the Izzy’s of this team’s last decade.

Cheers Izzy - I hope you do pitch again.

Izzy Injured

You’ve probably all heard by now that Jason Isringhausen’s tenure as a Cardinal is likely coming to an end with the announcement of a torn flexor muscle and inflammation in his elbow.

I had previously speculated that Izzy had an undisclosed injury so this announcement comes as no surprise. The question is again one of disclosure. Was Izzy hiding this injury from the Cardinals in an attempt to achieve the 300 save milestone, or was the Cardinal organization hiding it? And how long has this been a lingering concern? Certainly Izzy was feeling discomfort and making a game effort to contribute to the club and pitch through the pain.

I for one applaud all that Izzy has done for the Cardinals. He has had a tremendous impact and despite a few injury plagued seasons where he wasn’t effective, he has been the reliable stopper that a team needs to have winning seasons.

Izzy left Oakland as a free agent and was signed by the Cardinals prior to the 2002 season. From 2002 through 2005 Izzy accumulated 140 Saves, 8W, 7L, 231K, 86BB, 175HA, in 241.2IP. Despite recent memory suggesting he would walk runners or always seem to have men on base, his W+H/IP ratio was around 1 except for the injury plagued year of 2006 and of course this year, seemingly another injury plagued year.

During his post season career Izzy pitched in 23 games earning 1 win and 11 saves with a 2.36 ERA. He pitched in 26 2/3 innings allowing 17 hits and 12 walks while striking out 23.

2006 seemed to be the turning point for Izzy and Cardinal Nation. We didn’t realize the extent of the injury that Izzy was dealing with and all we saw was one terrible performance after another. Hiding the injury hurt the relationship with the fans and did nothing to make him more effective against the opponents. Last year he rebounded nicely, but you had to wonder whether the hip would hold up. Turns out the elbow dealt the final blow. Yes, Izzy may still pitch again, but hard to imagine any scenario where he returns to the Cardinals next year given his huge salary.

So I guess it’s time to turn all of our attention to Mr. Chris Perez and see how he meaures up to the closer role. He will have big shoes to fill. I will conclude by saying that this recent announcement of Izzy’s injury has me a bit more concerned with the status of Chris Carpenter and even Adam Wainwright. How often did we hear the positive news about Mark Mulder and Matt Clement just to be frustrated when learning how far away they really were from joining any major league rotation.

Jarrod Washburn: Appearing at a stadium near you?

Apparently Jarrod Washburn has been informed by the Seattle Mariners that he was placed on waivers and some team has claimed him.  The claiming team has yet to be outed, but by waiver rules, the Mariners can work out a deal with the claiming team.

Could we be seeing Washburn in a Cardinal uniform soon?  Buster Olney and Seattle Times writer Geoff Baker both have speculated that to be the case.

Check out the latest updates on this post over at MLBTradeRumors.com (I’ll try to keep this one updated too as I scour for more info).

Does this make sense for the Cardinals?  With several off-days coming in the next few weeks, they can get by with a four-man rotation for a number of series.  Could this be an indication of their expectations for Chris Carpenter the rest of this season?  Would this continue to reinforce the original plan by the Cardinals to ship Adam Wainwright back to the bullpen upon his return?  Or perhaps worse, they aren’t seeing any progress from Waino?

Who gets dropped from the rotation if Carp does make it back?  This would almost surely rule out any extension with Kyle Lohse for next season, with Washburn owed over $10M for 2009.  Could the Cards be giving up something significant in order to convince the M’s to pay most of that tab?

Yikes, lots of questions, few answers.  I’m sure it will come clearer in the coming hours, but one thing is virtually certain.  The Mariners are almost a lock not to pull Washburn back.  He has worn out his welcome there and needs a new locale.  Could Dave Duncan work his voodoo magic again?

I’m not sure I agree with panicking here and adding just to add - the Cards seem to have plenty of arms to throw into a rotation next season, not to mention a burgeoning number of dollars under their ~$100M or so expected payroll that one would think they could be spending on seemingly better free agents than Washburn.

I’ll keep you all posted…

UPDATE (4:27p) - Apparently I’m a little slow on the uptake, as CardsClubhouse.com forums have Olney saying this morning on ESPN that it was either the Tigers or the Twins.  MLBTR had claims that the Twins weren’t on Ibanez, so that would mean they want Washburn?  Seems an unlikely move for Minnesota without the M’s kicking in on that salary for next season, but they have climbed back into the AL Central race.

UPDATE (4:40p) - My buddy Jon Heyman has the scoop over at SI.com, Washburn claimed by the Twins, will remain a Mariner.  So Olney apparently had it right this morning, Tigers claiming Ibanez, Twins on Washburn.  Surprising that the M’s wouldn’t just let Washburn walk.

UPDATE (4:53p) - Derrick Goold has also refuted the rumors, quoting a Cardinals source as saying “his name has not come up.”  Can’t say that I’m disappointed.

UPDATE (5:01p) - Because the question was asked below, I thought I’d link to a great post by Padres’ Assistant GM Paul DePodesta that explains at a high level how the waiver claim and trade process works.

Barton to return sooner than later?

Brian Barton has rejoined the Cardinals, but is has not yet been activated.

Technically, the Cardinals could keep him on the disabled list the rest of the season and retain his rights, after choosing him in this past off-season’s Rule 5 Draft.  While I doubt the Cardinal management would go that far just to keep him while letting him sit and watch, they are still gaming the system here to a certain extent.

I would expect Barton to return within the next week or so.  The Cardinals have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks, with enough off days that they should be able to carry one less pitcher.

Who would go down to activate Barton?  Not to mention - what roster move will be made once Adam Wainwright returns from his rehab assignment?

I could see the Cardinals doing one of two things here - I suspect that unless they get an absolute vote of confidence on his shoulder, Chris Carpenter could get sent back on the disabled list, possibly for the rest of the season.  That might be a move to make room for Waino later on though, after they have exhausted all of their options of “rest” for Carp.

I expect that Joe Mather could be the Memphis casualty once Barton is activated.  Despite finally seeming comfortable at the plate against big-league pitching and starting to really show some of the power that we saw from him in Memphis, Mather is seemingly the odd-man out in the Cardinal outfield, especially as LaRussa continues to use Felipe Lopez in left field.

I still think that long-term, Barton may be trade bait for the Cards, but for now he’s not a bad guy to have around.  His element of speed is something the Redbirds certainly lack.

Ultimately, this will only be a two-and-a-half week problem anyway, as I fully expect all of these guys to be with the big club come September 1.

Shut Carp down - now

The news at ESPN.com is that and MRI has revealed that Chris Carpenter has a strain in his pitching *shoulder*, not a triceps strain as previously thought and reported.

LaRussa and Duncan are already preparing to use either Brad Thompson or Jaime Garcia in Carpenter’s rotation slot on Friday.

In yet another setback for a Cardinal starting pitcher returning from injury, the Cards have a lot more on the line with this one.  Carp is owed $15M per season for the next three years, each of which they desperately need him to be their ace.  There is absolutely no reason to try and rush him back to pitching again this year.  In what is quickly becoming a floundering playoff push (I’m still optimistic, but cautiously so), the Cardinals need to protect their investment in the future years of Carp’s contract.  It even makes me cringe a little to read “…will rejoin his teammates in Florida, where he will receive treatment from the team’s medical staff.”  Great, so they’re going to let Dr Paletta(nother pitcher’s arm implode) work on him.  Fabulous.

In a sick twist, this has at least brought the Cardinals’ brass to their senses regarding Adam Wainwright, according to STLToday.com.  Waino’s next rehab start is being pushed back to Saturday, where he will pitch for AA Springfield (not Memphis, as in his previous two outings) and get in 65-70 pitches.  This is good news, in my book.  However, the yo-yo-ing continues with this team.  Is he going to pitch in relief or start?  I realize situations are dictating responses in this case, but the guy has to get in the right mental state to know when and how he needs to pitch.  Sure, I give the benefit of the doubt to Wainwright and his mental strength and testicular fortitude, versus say a Joel Pineiro or even a Kyle Lohse, but I reckon it’d be helpful for him to know one way or another.  Hell, it’s probably even better for his arm if he prepares specifically one way or another.

The Cardinals, for better or worse, put their eggs in the Carpenter/Wainwright basket at the trade deadline.  Unlike a lot of Cards fans, I wasn’t terribly disappointed at the deadline, I think they were just being realistic about the capital they had to use in a trade, and where this team is headed for the next five seasons.

But if that was their excuse then, it has to be their approach now.  Don’t make a Mark Mulder story out of Carp, who has a history with his shoulder as it is.  Shut him down and hope that the rest of the Cardinals can pick up the slack.  After all, they’ve done it all season…

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