Fool Me Once, Shame On You

Fool me twice, shame me.

It’s an idiom that means people (or teams) should learn from mistakes and not allow people (or players) to take advantage of them by repeating the same mistakes.  You know where this is going, right?

Brad Penny and the Detroit Tigers.

Since Penny’s last All-Star appearance in 2007, he’s accomplished the following:

• 2008 – 6-9 record, 6.27 era in 94 2/3 innings for $9.25M
• 2009 – 11-9 record, 4.88 era in 173 1/3 innings for $5.0M
• 2010 – 3-4 record, 3.23 era in 55 2/3 innings for $7.5M

So, that’s about 20 wins for a grand total of $21.75M.  That works out to $1,087,500 per win.  That’s 20 wins against 22 defeats, so his overall record during that 3 year period isn’t that bad, and his ERA is trending in the right direction.  It’s the innings worked that is a bit frightening.  He’s pitched 323 1/3 in the last 3 seasons combined, but he’s only 32 years old.  Even if he is healthy to start 2011, his last foray into the AL wasn’t so spectacular.  He went 7-8 with a 5.61 ERA with Boston in 2009 in 131 2/3 innings.

So, is Detroit simply throwing caution to the wind, or is the team just that desperate for pitching that they’ll gamble $3M that Penny can bring that 3.23 ERA with him to Detroit after a long layoff and rehab?  I guess that with a projected payroll of over $110M the Tigers can afford the Penny, and maybe it’s a low risk, high reward scenario for Tigers GM Dombrowski.  If so, then I wish them all the best, because I’m certainly glad as a fan that the Cardinals didn’t invite Penny back for a 2nd shot.  I just don’t think the team could afford to pay him $2.5M per win for another season.

TIDBIT: I’m not fan of athletes using Twitter as just another marketing platform, and I sincerely appreciate the few who actually tweet their own stuff.  Some are more “real” than others, and Brad Penny is definitely “real” about the way he represents himself on Twitter.  I don’t necessarily mean that in a flattering way.

BIT OF TID: “See a Penny, pick it up, and all season, you’ll wish you hadn’t.” ~gr33nazn

Like it?  Feel like calling me an idiom sometimes?  Find gr33nazn on Twitter and let’s talk about “throwing good money after Brad”! (Yes, that was terrible.)

Cardinals fan since I could hold a fishing pole steady. Accidental blogger. Opinionated. I could care less about what you think of me. Constantly confounded, bemused, and confuzzled (ie I'm a pc and a mac). I'm an IT infrastructure analyst with a penchant for breaking tech toys. I ate a sabermetric primer for breakfast. I love playing "All-powerful GM of MLB". The 2010 Cardinals represented a good, practical definition "cognitive dissonance". The 2011 version got by on duct tape and a prayer, and I'm fine with that. They just need new tape for #12 in 12.

Dennis

View all posts by Dennis
Follow Dennis on Twitter