A Bucket of Baseballs

by on December 12, 2010 · 8 comments

Seriously, why not just trade Brendan Ryan for a bucket of baseballs?  The bucket of baseballs would be more useful to the 2011 Cardinals than Maikel Cleto.  That’s no knock on Cleto.  He may turn into a fine pitcher, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be a fine pitcher any time soon.  Actually, it’s unlikely that he’ll be a fine pitcher at any point in his career.  He nearly managed a 2*pi era last year (6.16) in A+ ball, and he’s never managed an era lower than 4.24 at any level of professional ball.  However, I’m not reacting to this trade solely on what Cleto has done in his very young career (he’s only 21).

I’m looking at this from a completely different perspective.  Consider the J.J.  Hardy trade involving the Twins and the Orioles.  The Twins gave up Hardy, Brendan Harris, and $500K in exchange for minor league right handers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.  Harris hit a whopping .157 last year in 108 at-bats, but he is a career .260 hitter and utility infielder.  Of greater interest to me is the comparison between Hardy and Ryan.  Hardy has a lifetime .263 average, .323 obp, and .423 slugging %.  Ryan has a lifetime .259 average, .314 obp, and .344 slugging percentage.  Hardy’s 2010 dWAR was 0.0, and Ryan’s was 1.6.  In 4 seasons, Ryan has a total WAR value of 6.2, and Hardy has a total WAR of 9.9 in 6 seasons.  Hardy’s 2010 salary?  $5.1M.  Ryan’s 2010 salary?  $425K.  Statistically, Hardy and Ryan offer similar overall productivity, but Ryan does so at a much lower cost.  Advantage, Ryan. 

Consider the minor league pitchers involved in the Hardy deal.  Jim Hoey spent time at both AA and AAA in 2010, and his 18 games at AAA Norfolk was good for a 3.38 era with 13.5 strikeouts per 9 innings against 7.2 walks per 9 innings.  As for Brett Jacobsen, he pitched at A+ level and managed a 2.79 era in 71.0 innings.  Jacobsen had an 8-1 record with a 8.5 SO/9 ratio and 3.0 walks per 9 innings.   

So, I’ll recap.  The Twins turn J.J. Hardy, a utility infielder, and $500K into a AAA pitcher who can probably contribute for them next year and an A-ball pitcher with some promise.  The Cardinals turn a top-3 defensive shortstop in the NL into an A-ball pitcher who is unlikely to see the inside of Busch Stadium without buying a ticket.  Man, I wish they had gotten at least a bucket of baseballs.  This move is really just one step above giving Brendan Ryan away.  Isn’t that a lot like what Josh McDaniels did with the Broncos in Denver?  That didn’t turn out so great for McDaniels.

I’m normally hesitant to discuss the merits of any trade too quickly, because it may take 2-3 years to really assess the full value.  However, I rarely see the value in trading major league talent for A-ball minor league talent.  The cost of keeping Ryan on the team was relatively small, and the potential payoff in terms of production or even increased trade value were relatively high.  Now the Cardinals have no quality depth at SS, and I would argue that they have no quality defense at that position at all.  The Mariners get a really motivated player who plays gold glove-caliber defense.  The Cardinals?  They get to show the fans how front office ego can stop ground balls up the middle.

UPDATE:  Many thanks to the big boss here at PH8 who brought to my attention an obvious effort to plagiarize my work.  The offense appears here:

http://www.seattlepi.com/forum/boards/viewtopic.asp?topicid=155459

Thankfully, several members of the site’s forum jumped to my defense, and I’m exceedingly impressed by their ethics as demonstrated here:

http://www.seattlepi.com/forum/boards/viewtopic.asp?topicid=155524#2215386

Update as of 12/18/2010 – Many thanks to the management of Seattle PI for addressing the act of plagiarism and removing the offending post.

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Cardinals fan since I could hold a fishing pole steady. Accidental blogger. Opinionated. I could care less about what you think of me. Constantly confounded, bemused, and confuzzled (ie I'm a pc and a mac). I'm an IT infrastructure analyst with a penchant for breaking tech toys. I ate a sabermetric primer for breakfast. I love playing "All-powerful GM of MLB". The 2010 Cardinals represented a good, practical definition "cognitive dissonance". The 2011 version got by on duct tape and a prayer, and I'm fine with that. They just need new tape for #12 in 12.
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{ 8 comments }

PH8 December 12, 2010

Don’t be so quick to put this one on the front office – I’d blame one particular member of the field staff. Obviously I could be mistaken (and we could be saying the same thing), but this reeks of #10.

Dennis December 12, 2010

Oh, I’d agree wholeheartedly, except for my belief that the “field staff” doesn’t actually make trades.

Josh December 13, 2010

Have to go with our fearless leader here, since the Cards are unlike any other team in baseball now. TLR leads with an iron fist on the field and through management, much like Cox and Torre did.

#10 made it clear that Ryan did not have a place on the 2011 squad, plain and simple. That left Mo to scramble to find ANY deal, glad they got something back for him.

As for B. Rabbit, sad to see him go but happy he landed in a good spot for him.

Dennis December 13, 2010

It’s still on the FO in my opinion. TLR’s influence is exercised through Mo. When Mo announced that the roster was set, that was a line in the sand. As soon as he allowed a single change, he showed just how weak he really is as a GM.

Josh December 13, 2010

I’ll give you that about the GM being weak. It will be interesting to hear how some of the players react (AP and Carp) now and in April if the SS defense isn’t as solid.

We all expect a downgrade from Theriot, but he may have just as much of a chip as Ryan.

Dennis December 13, 2010

I’d like to think that Theriot is as motivated as Ryan, but he just got $3.3M and a starting SS gig w/o competing for it. He doesn’t need that chip to bring the offense, and a chip won’t make him any quicker on defense. Again, my issue isn’t with Theriot so much as it is with the way the team is giving away assets for nothing and feeding the fans a line of crap about it.

PH8 December 16, 2010

I really dislike plagiarism, but I have to admit this particular instance at the Seattle PI message board was kind of amusing.

Dennis December 16, 2010

I’m just really thankful for the forum users who were upstanding about calling out the offending user for plagiarizing. Maybe we need to get the guys at Dewey, Cheatem, & Howe fired up and ready to go. :)

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