2010 NL Gold Glove Predictions

by on October 29, 2010 · 8 comments

The Gold Glove which is technically the “Rawlings Gold Glove Award” is voted on by the managers and coaches of each league.  Voters are not permitted to vote for players from their own team in an effort to eliminate bias.  That said, it’s probably fair to say that most voters don’t take the time to analyze detailed sabermetric reports on a position-by-position basis.  While that probably shouldn’t be the sole means of assessment, it would be nice to know that the voters aren’t basing their votes solely on reputation.  Instead of relying on reputations or statistics alone, I’ve cranked up the ol’ “Abner Doubleday Predict-o-Matic 3000″ to predict winners for the 2010 Gold Glove awards.  Here is what the machine churned out for us:

WINNERS

  • CatcherYadier Molina (.995 Fielding %, 7.70 RF, 3.276 ZR, 33/68 CS, 3.24 CERA, 5 E) – Molina probably could win this on reputation alone, but he’s also got the numbers to back it up. 
  • 1BAlbert Pujols(.998 Fielding %, 10.53 RF, 2.401 ZR) – With A-Gon having an off-year, this was Albert’s for the taking, and he went out and took it. 
  • 2BBrandon Phillips (.996 Fielding %, 4.81 RF, 5.289 ZR, 3 E, 703 TC) – Clearly Phillips didn’t allow an up and down year at the plate affect his play in the field.  Great sign for a Reds team that benefited greatly from solid defense up the middle.
  • 3BPlacido Polanco (.986 Fielding %, 2.90 RF, 8.658 ZR, 5 E, 351 TC) –  He won it last year with Detroit, and he just keeps getting better with age. 
  • SSTroy Tulowitzki (.984 Fielding %, 5.06 RF, 4.887 ZR, 10 E, 609 TC) – He put together a complete package of highlights and solid defensive stops this year.  I don’t see how he loses this one. 
  • OFAndre Ethier(.996 Fielding %, 1.79 RF, 14.178 ZR, 6 A, 1 E, 230 TC) – Toughest call of the outfielders, but Ethier gets the nod for terrific zone rating. 
  • OFMichael Bourn(.992 Fielding %, 2.78 RF, 9.1116 ZR, 8 A, 3 E, 370 TC) – Covers ground like a tarp.  Bonus points for dealing with Tal’s hill.
  • OFShane Victorino (.995 Fielding %, 2.64 RF, 9.601 ZR, 11 A, 2 E, 373 TC) – Best combination of sure hands and a cannon arm. 
  • PBronson Arroyo (1.000 Fielding %, 2.04 RF, 12.571 ZR, 0 E, 5 DP, 49 TC)

HONORABLE MENTIONS

  • CatcherCarlos Ruiz (.993 Fielding %, 8.07 RF, 3.126 ZR, 20/70 CS, 3.33 CERA, 14 E) – Tough break playing in the same league as Yadier Molina, but “Chooch” has quietly put together a pretty good start to a career in Philly including some valuable playoff experience.
  • 1BJames Loney(.997 Fielding %, 9.17 RF, 2.786 ZR) – Loney doesn’t get the attention that Adrian Gonzalez does, but he made half as many errors as Gonzalez, and that shouldn’t be overlooked. 
  • 2BFreddy Sanchez (.991 Fielding %, 4.33 RF, 5.834 ZR, 2 E, 458 TC) – Former batting champ can handle the leather as well.  He’s probably one of the few $6M/yr bargains ever in MLB.
  • 3BScott Rolen (.977 Fielding %, 2.87 RF, 8.697 ZR, 8 E, 350 TC) – He’s lost a step, but that’s no slight for a guy who was written off by many years ago.
  • SSBrendan Ryan(.974 Fielding %, 5.01 RF, 4.924 ZR, 17 E, 644 TC) – Made just as many highlight plays as Tulo, but he made far too many errors.
  • OFMarlon Byrd (.992 Fielding %, 2.69 RF, 9.479 ZR, 3 E, 380 TC)
  • OFJeff Francoeur (.987 Fielding %, 2.13 RF, 11.779 ZR, 11 A, 3 E, 235 TC)
  • OFDexter Fowler (.996 Fielding %, 2.29 RF, 11.025 ZR, 2 A, 1 E, 242 TC)
  • PAdam Wainwright (.983 Fielding %, 2.23 RF, 11.121 ZR, 1 E, 5 DP, 58 TC) – Reigning GG winner could win based on reputation and a superior highlight reel, but Arroyo’s superior stats should carry the day. 

 Agree?  Disagree?  Bring it on!  The “Abner Doubleday Predict-o-Matic 3000″ can handle the criticism.  At this point, there are no wrong answers. 

Definitions of Baseball Terms Used For The Sake of Sounding Knowledgeable

  • Fielding % -> Fielding percentage = ( putouts + assists ) / ( putouts + assists + errors )
  • RF -> Range factor = (putouts + assists) / 9 innings
  • ZR -> Zone rating = percentage of balls fielded in player’s typical defensive “zone”
  • TC -> Total chances
  • CERA -> Catcher’s earned run average = earned run average of team’s pitchers with specific catcher behind the plate
  • E -> Errors
  • A -> Assists
  • CS -> Caught stealing
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Cardinals fan since I could hold a fishing pole steady. Accidental blogger. Opinionated. I could care less about what you think of me. Constantly confounded, bemused, and confuzzled (ie I'm a pc and a mac). I'm an IT infrastructure analyst with a penchant for breaking tech toys. I ate a sabermetric primer for breakfast. I love playing "All-powerful GM of MLB". The 2010 Cardinals represented a good, practical definition "cognitive dissonance". The 2011 version got by on duct tape and a prayer, and I'm fine with that. They just need new tape for #12 in 12.
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