I’m all for seeing Ludwick excel in 2009 and see no reason why he won’t as long as he stays healthy.

I guess Ankiel and Greene are my biggest concerns. Probably makes sense to move Ankiel IF you could get the right piece, but there isn’t a clear direction right now as to what that piece is anyway. If Rasmus isn’t ready, then the missing piece would be in CF. If Rasmus does pan out, then later in the year as needs of all the teams becomes more clear, then maybe a nice trade partner can be found. Only problem might be that only teams in contention would consider Ankiel at that point, whereas you might find a rebuilding trading partner now that wants to renogiate his contract to begin the season. OK, that probably isn’t likely, so I think we’ll have Rick for the season. I certainly don’t like having 5 outfielders, not to mention Stavinhoa and others waiting as well.

I do like Greene and hope he does well here. He just doesn’t fit what I see as the biggest needs are for a Cardinal SS. He is also just a one year deal if I remember, so we still don’t have a long term answer. He’s likely to want a bigger contract so you might as well have just signed a Furcal or Cabrerra to start with.

I’ll be rooting for him all the same

Again, Lohse will be debatable until his 4 years are up – there was no predicting the market downturn at that point. The no-trade is the big flub on that one, in my book.

Just wait for Ludwick to top his ’08 this coming season, and Holliday will be a long-gone memory.

All I said was give me two of those guys, a batter and a pitcher. Furcal = Greene, so then give me Sheets at $10M.

and I believe my point was that Lohse maybe wasn’t the best signing. Lowe at 4 years for $60M is steep with Wainwright and Carp locked up long term already, but I wonder if Lowe got a full no trade clause?

Even still, I would have even taken Furcal or Holliday without an additional pitcher as to me both could be season changers and add a whole new dynamic to the club.

Certainly easy to speculate what may or may not happen, but what else is there to do until April

I’d argue that percentage increase means very little when those large percentage increases still put teams 20%-25% below the Cardinals in payroll (like the Reds and Brewers).

Now, why were the Brewers able to increase payroll so much? Because they have young stars, cost-controlled players who are having a large impact on their performance. This is where the Cardinals are trying to head, and I believe rightfully so.

Besides, look what all that spending has gotten the Cubs.

Cubs 87,032,933 118,345,833 31,312,900 26.46%
Cardinals 92,106,833 99,624,449 7,517,616 7.55%
Brewers 39,934,833 80,937,499 41,002,666 50.66%
Reds 61,892,583 74,117,695 12,225,112 16.49%
Pirates 38,133,000 48,689,783 10,556,783 21.68%
Astros 76,779,000 88,930,414 12,151,414 13.66%

OK, what does this show? First off it shows why the Pirates consistently lose and why the Brewers started winning. The Brewers have the highest % change in salary by far. It also shows that the Cubs and Cardinals spend the most.

The other point however is that it shows that since 2005 the Cardinals have the lowest % payroll increase in the division.

Sorry to get so far off topic, but I really wasn’t expecting to find that. Subtract Carpenter’s salary off of there if he can’t go and then our ‘effective’ salary drops quite a bit. Once again this year Carp is going to be a huge part of the team, so I just hope he can pitch.

Despite the claims in the first article that the city is getting killed on the deal, the new stadium was largely privately financed up front, so I’m sure they’re still paying on their notes as well.

I don’t know that any of us will ever fully comprehend what they are or aren’t “raking in”.

What I *do* know is that the Cards said they’re willing to go up to around $110m (unless they’ve reneged on that number now). Given their current payroll situation, that doesn’t leave a whole lot of room.

If you think the Cardinals haven’t made out like bandits from the new stadium or are otherwise hurting, then read this article published in the ST. Louis Journalism Review.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6666/is_/ai_n29355249

This article discusses what the Cardinal ownership is worth

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2001/05/07/story2.html

Sure, the economy has turned south for now, but they haven’t exactly shelled out money since the new stadium either.

According to this site,
http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2007payroll
the Cardinals opening day payroll for 2005 was $93,319,842 (6th overall). In 2006 they suddenly dropped to $88,891,371 (11th overall). In 2007 they go to $90,286,823 (still 11th). In 2008 they are at $99,624,449 (again 11th). So from 2006 they are up almost $11M and still rank the same 11th overall, however, if you compare it to 2005, they are only up $6M. That is just over 6% in 3 years which doesn’t even cover inflation.

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2007payroll

I’ve looked at other numbers and they are similar
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/teamresults.aspx?team=30

Obviously these numbers are estimates and there is nothing wrong with being financially responsible, just don’t sell me a stadium on the premise that you want to increase payroll and then not do it. I for one was very happy with the ‘old’ Busch stadium.

Obviously the new owners are raking in huge profits so congrats to them.

All of your wishes for players are fine and good, but it’s interesting you bring up fantasy baseball, because I feel like that’s where your head is at.

2009 salaries:

Holliday – $13.5m
Furcal – $6.5m
Lowe – $12m (minimum, since he’s already turned that down)
Sheets – $10m (?)

That’s a total of $42m guaranteed, committed dollars for 2009. Where is that money coming from? Even if you take out Greene’s $6.5m for argument’s sake, you’re still looking at $35.5m. Whether you like it or not, or argue that they should be spending more, the Cards just aren’t going to add that much salary.

Willy Taveres? Sure, he’s fast, but he’s no leadoff hitter. A .308 OBP? Blech. I’d rather Skipper. Plus, where does he fit? Who does he bump out of the already over-crowded Cardinal outfield? I’m not putting him in for Ank or Luddy, that’s for sure – and Schumaker is a better leadoff option, in my opinion, because of his OBP. Where would he even fit?

Izturis and Miles were a combined 63k’s in 793ab’s or 9%, but we don’t have either of those anymore. Kennedy didn’t strike out much, Kennedy only struck out 13% so maybe he’ll actually be better than I was thinking. The real key to the low K’s though was Pujols and Molina. I’ll also guess that our pitchers struck out the fewest of other teams as well, so that could be a factor. Schumaker was very solid.

Basically Pujols, Schumaker, Molina and even Kennedy are very good at putting the ball in play. But that still leaves 4 guys striking out at an alarming rate, and my contention is that leaves them vulnerable to slumps and rally killing.

Out of all this I’m thinking that having a couple of power hitters that K a lot is fine, just don’t have too many. Therefore, I would trade Ankiel for a speedster that puts the ball in play. Ideally I would actually not have signed Greene and gone with Furcal or Orlando Cabrerra. I don’t see Greene as a difference maker, but more like a Kennedy. He’ll have stretches where he is good, but I have followed him having him on fantasy teams, and he is very inconsistent.

Last year the Cardinals were near the bottom in stolen base % and I’d like to see that improve. Speed/contact would give Tony more options for hit and run too. I would gladly have taken a Willy Taveras. Struck out at 16% but also had 68 SBs. Would not be my first choice, but someone I remember as available off the top of my head.

If Rasmus comes in and becomes what we hope he is and Ludwick continues off of last year, and Schumaker is an everyday player leading off, then the Cardinals could be pretty good. I honestly hadn’t realized they were so good in those categories, although with power hitters you expect runs scored to be high and I still think the k’s won’t be too good this year for the Cards.

Just too bad we can’t have Holliday to protect Pujols, Furcal to lead off, and Lowe or even Sheets in the rotation. To me that would be a championship looking team. This team can certainly win, but I really don’t see sustainability unless many things fit together just right. Biggest weakness is still the starting pitching unless Carpenter miraculously returns to form for the whole year and Wellemeyer/Piniero can hold their own as 4th and 5th starters, and Perez/Motte are better than TLR is expecting.

Big difference in the rotation *could be* a healthy Carp and Waino all season. Obviously, I’m not holding my breath – but I’ve also made known I’d like to see another starter signed.

Bullpen has seen addition by subtraction. Bye bye Izzy, bye bye Flores, bye bye Villone (who would’ve been fine if TLR had used him appropriately. Don’t forget we’re getting Kinney back, also have Manning and Ostlund from the LHP side, and possible Tyler Johnson as well.

Greene is a massive upgrade on Izturis offensively, even if you don’t take into account depressed numbers at Petco. Schumaker seemed to work out alright as a leadoff hitter next season, and Tony doesn’t seem to be shying away from using Rasmus there either.

The Cardinals led the league in batting average at .281 last season – I’d say they have some contact hitters (league average was .260).

Cards scored 779 runs last season, good for fourth in the NL, behind the Cubs, Mets, and Phillies.

They also struck out the least times of any team in the NL, only 985.

So there are some arguments there that aren’t holding water…

As for holes – I’d still love to see an upgrade at 2B, but relatively resigned to the fact that Kennedy will likely be the guy. Starting pitching is first and foremost. They resigned LaRue to be Yadi’s backup, he’s fine in that role.

In a perfect world, we’d see a 2B upgrade, another proven bullpen arm (either RHP or LHP), and a starting pitcher. Assuming they don’t have the remaining capital for that, I hope they shoot the entire wad at a starting pitcher like Sheets or Lowe.

We have to keep in mind though that Mo can be very quiet about moves he’s making – we can still hold out hope there is an Ankiel for Matt Cain type of trade in the works.

In the rotation we have Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Piniero, Carpenter. What’s different about that?

For closer we have Perez and Motte. We’ve added Royce Ring and Trevor Miller. Is that the making of an improved bullpen? Can you say to yourself, wow, if only the starter can go 5 innings it’s a slam dunk with our great bullpen?

So the big difference is what, Rasmus and Greene? Are opposing pitchers going to be worried when they come to bat? Is there protection for Pujols? Do we have a lead off batter? Team speed? Contact hitters? Or do we have a bunch of guys prone to K’s and extended slumps? I’m thinking the latter.

I’d definitely like to hear your take on it

My previous post wasn’t necessarily my opinion either, I was trying to view it based on what TLR has said he wants and what has actually been done.

Impact bat = Holliday. Closer = Fuentes ( I wouldn’t have wanted him). Now he wants a starting pitcher (thus my comments about Carpenter and the wait and see approach). I did leave the door open for the Lohse signing to turn out to be great. I had honestly forgotten about the no trade clause for Lohse, but I really don’t like that at all.

I’m still optimistic that the Cardinals will do good as they will ride the coat tails of Pujols. Pitching should be good enough.

As far as ‘holes yet to fill’ what are you thinking there? A backup C and a utility guy are certainly needed. Don’t think we’re getting anything else until the season starts unless Carpenter shows he isn’t ready. I do think they will sign Izzy, so I guess that would be one hole filled

The Cards have Perez and Motte both slotted as closers in development. They simply were not willing to give Fuentes a third year (and it may not have mattered anyway, since he got a third year of sorts with the option from the Angels). This is part of the problem – everyone wants big dollars spent on Fuentes right now, but then will complain in 2011 when he’s earning $14mm and that money can’t be spent on a renegotiation with Pujols.

Lohse was signed at a time when the Cards could not have predicted this market. If you recall, KRod was still after $50mm when Lohse was signed. Can’t have your cake and eat it too – if the market hadn’t bottomed out and Lohse hadn’t been signed, folks would want Mo’s head. It’s a gamble for certain, and I don’t agree with the no-trade clause, but they had a guy who they believe is worth that contract, so they made it happen.

I don’t really have much to say about Kennedy – again, kind of out of the topic of discussion here – but there just wasn’t any interest. It was either cut him, or give him a shot. He performed about to his career numbers last year, so if they think they can live with that (and he and Tony can play nice), maybe it’ll work out.

I really believe that with the holes yet to fill, the Cards just don’t have any room for a risk/reward type of signing like Penny. Especially at $5mm guaranteed.

I’d argue with you until I was blue in the face that this is far from the same team as last year, but methinks we’d wind up agreeing to disagree.

This is not easily answered since it excludes trades. To me, the first ‘miss’ on Mo’s part was not being able to trade for Holliday. We could argue all day long about who would or could have been involved in a deal, but when you look at the deal that was completed by Oakland, certainly the Cardinals should have been able to match that. The Cardinals were definitely in pursuit of Holliday and failed to land him.

Then comes Fuentes. Sure Fuentes wanted to stay on the West Coast and play for the Angels. Translation, give me a 3 year contract and I’ll come play for you. TLR identified Fuentes as the ‘top priority’ and Mo failed to sign him. TLR also said they would look outside the organization for a closer, but now Mo is content to go with Perez and or Motte.

Then we can look at the rush job to resign Lohse. Here is a guy that had zero takers last year and has 1 good year pitching for the Cardinals. The Cardinals won’t go more than 2 years on a closer yet go 4 years $41M on Lohse, even though they only wanted to go 3 years. The rush signing likely backfired as Lohse likely would have signed a 3 year deal now as the Cardinals would have been able to shop more aggressively amongst the free agent pitchers available. Lohse hadn’t had a winning season since 2003 and isn’t exactly a ‘proven’ pitcher. Without Lohse, Peavy might even have been more viable via trade.

Another ‘miss’ in my mind is a non-move, that being Kennedy. They guy wants out, they should have accomodated him even if they had to take a loss on the deal. Better than having discontent in the clubhouse. With AK on the roster then that means he is the ‘starter’, so no way do you sign Orlando Hudson or trade for a 2B. Sure they could decide to trade Kennedy later, but there is no indication they are willing to lose any money on him.

Next we look at the Carpenter situation. At the end of last season Carpenter was very much in doubt. Needed surgery, might not ever pitch again, opted to rehab instead, everyone said the same thing, no way can you count on Carpenter to start the season in the rotation. So the interview I heard yesterday with Mo, of course he said that Carpenter is the 5th starter right now, but if they need to, they can sign a pitcher later on, especially since the free agent market is moving so slow.

I also heard Mo say the same thing TLR said last year, we will surprise people with our team especially with TLR at manager.

So let’s review. We don’t sign an ‘imapct bat’ that TLR identified, we don’t sign a closer that TLR identified as #1 priority, we still don’t have a lead off batter other than Rasmus, who bats about .250 in the minors and TLR questions whether he is even big league ready. So Mo isn’t giving TLR the tools that he asks for, but yet he is once again expected to ‘surprise’ people.

That is all well and good, but surprising people earned a 4th place central division finish last year. I really haven’t seen the improvement over last year, so it is hard to expect much better.

As far as Penny goes, he would have been a nice 1 year signing. I don’t mind high risk – high reward signings as long as they don’t have long term negative potential. Who has more bust potential, a 4 year Lohse deal or a 1 year Penny deal?

Cetainly Lohse could turn out to be a great long term signing, and if he pitches well again in 2009 then his contract will look great. You have to assume that Duncan has given his seal of approval so hopefully his signing makes Mo look great. Even still it is the same team as last year. Will the added year of experience mean more wins? I certainly hope so.