Not sure about Hill – he’s no spring chicken, but Duncan might be able to squeeze something out of him. I find it really hard to envision a scenario where the Cards and Cubs could agree on a deal though.

As you can see, I back tracked on my original thinking as I was typing, and do agree with you that a $10M contract is what a middle of the rotation pitcher will command on the open market these days, so locking up Lohse was probably a positive thing, although I also agree that the 4 year full no trade clause doesn’t make sense.

The left handed pitcher still makes a lot of sense to me though. Face a team with a bunch of solid lefties in the lineup, having a lefty to throw one of those days makes a lot of sense. Also having someone throwing slow breaking stuff from the left side, sandwiched in between two hard throwing righties makes sense as well.

Do you think Rich Hill could be a viable reclamation project for Duncan? He totally lost command last year and is buried in the minors now. I’m guessing the Cubs wouldn’t give up on him so quickly, but maybe he needs a change of scenery?

The Cardinals are not (or should not be) in the market for KRod (too expensive, injury risk), CC (too expensive), Burnett (injury risk, only available if Jays don’t pony up), Sheets (disaster waiting to happen), Dempster (fool to leave the Cubs), or Randy Johnson (not worth it). Lowe is the only one I’d consider there, but he’s likely going to command a similar contract to Lohse, and he’s six years older.

Where I think your logic is failing, is that once those guys are snapped up – there are still plenty of guys like Lohse that will command $10m. Look at the Carlos Silva deal. Look at Suppan’s deal. $10m is the going rate for a guy who can pitch around .500 while going 200 innings. Silly, yes. But it’s reality.

I don’t like counting on Carp either, but anyone who is still holding out hope that Pineiro won’t be in the rotation next season should just cut bait now.

I don’t think the left-handed versus right-handed thing holds much merit, as long as you’re winning. The Cards didn’t suffer this season because they didn’t have a left-handed starting pitcher, they suffered because their bullpen left them hanging. They suffered because their offense took vacation during too many series.

I’m with you on the Randy Wolf thing – get him locked in at about 2 years, $5m per and let’s see what Dunc can do with him. I don’t think it matters that he’s a lefty though…

With the Lohse signing now it looks like Looper has to be let go. Like it or not, Pineiro is penciled in to the 2009 starting rotation. I don’t believe Carpenter will be able to pitch for a whole season while going all out and we’re likley to see something like a Mulder situation barring some miraculous recovery considering he isn’t going to have surgery. Doesn’t sound like this is something that is going to fix itself, so you have to suspect that Carp is hoping a little R&R over the winter and the pain will go away and the strength return on its own.

So we have Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Pineiro, TBD. IF Lohse turns into a very good pitcher getting at least 15 wins, then maybe the rotation gets by without a Burnett, Sheets, CC, etc. I think then you have to add a left handed starter to the rotation. Not having a southpaw starter really limits the looks that Tony can give the other team. Having similar looking pitchers back to back does nothing to keep the opposing batters off balance from day to day. Why not have a hard throwing righty followed by a soft tossing lefty? I think we could sign someone like Randy Wolf and do much more for the rotation than re-signing Looper. I would say take a chance on Randy Johnson, but there seems little chance he will leave AZ.