And the Magic Number is…

by on August 5, 2008 · 3 comments


Pretty obvious that the number 5 would be significant for the Cardinals as one of the best hitters in the game wears that number for the Redbirds. But I’m talking about another number 5. This goes back to a post game interview when the bullpen let yet another game slip away. In that interview the fearless skipper was a bit incensed at the mention of a bullpen meltdown costing the Cardinals the game when they had only scored 2 or 3 runs that game (I’d just as soon not look that up and bring back bad memories!)

So that led me to think, just how many runs do the Cardinals need to plate in a game in order to win? The number seems to be 5. There have been a total of 56 games to date in which the Cards have scored 5 or more runs and in those games where they score 5 or more they are an impressive 51-5.

Uh-oh, as I was typing this somehow the Dodgers have managed to score a run and now have the bases jammed, and the Cardinals have only scored 4 runs. The nemesis Kent is at the plate to boot facing Izzy. Sure enough, 4-3 as Izzy is being Izzy and now 4-4. Kind of highlights the importance of that 5th run, while at the same time demonstrating that you shouldn’t have to score 5 runs to win a ballgame! Just glad I was spared the misery of seeing that unfold.

I guess you have to wonder if this is it for Izzy? Probably still gets another shot or two, but I’m sure the fuse has to be getting shorter. Franklin doesn’t look like the man either. Springer blew it the other day. Kind of leaves McClellan and Perez if you ask me.

Looking at games where the Cardinals score less than 5 runs they are 11-47. An interesting exercise would be to look at how many games the Cardinals have lost to the bullpen. Without calculating that myself I think that blown saves would answer that question and unfortunately that number is 26. I guess the real test would be to know how many of those 26 blown saves were ultimately lost. So I guess Tony has a legitimate point. If the Cards can score 5 runs in a game they are likely to win despite the bullpen woes. However, just think where they might be if they actually could win some of those games where they don’t score 5 runs a game!

Looks like the magic number for the Cards could once again be to score 5 runs to win tonight’s game. So don’t go blaming this one on the bullpen 😉

In other news I see that Clement has been given his walking papers. That reminds me of another topic I’ve been thinking about and that is the signability of Lohse. I’m guessing we can just say goodbye to him right now. Just look at Weaver and Suppan of recent past. Once the contract is up and the pitcher has had a good year he is basically gone if he isn’t in the long term plans. I guess we’ll be looking for another reclamation project or two next year to fill out the rotation unless Garcia, Boggs, and or Parisi or someone else are ready to step in from the minor leagues.

Ludwick actually doesn’t swing at the first pitch, works the count to 2-1 and blasts one to center for the game winner. Sweet! In an ironic twist of fate, the bullpen blows Carpenter’s first win of the year, but sets it up to give Garcia the first win of his career.


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PHE August 6, 2008

Those win-loss records over and under five runs are staggering. I wonder how that compares to other teams and league average?

MC August 6, 2008

Good research. I’ll take the over any day!

PHE August 6, 2008

I’m nervous that five won’t be enough tonight…

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